r/NCAAW

The Big 12 Women’s Basketball Media Days have concluded and the Oklahoma State Cowgirls are the preseason pick to win the conference. Here are the preseason awards the conference released today:

Preseason Player of the Year: Audi Crooks, Oklahoma State

Preseason Newcomer of the Year: Liv McGill, Oklahoma State

Preseason Freshman of the Year: Jessie-May Hall, TCU

Wrapping this up since (surprise, surprise) we did not pace these well this off-season. One last chance to look back at the season that was and get excited for the season upcoming!

Coach of the Year

1. Cori Close, UCLA - 46.7%
2. Kara Lawson, Duke - 22.2%
3. Shea Ralph, Vanderbilt - 20.0%
4. Niele Ivey, Notre Dame - 6.7%
5. Dawn Staley, South Carolina - 4.4%

Transfer Player of the Year

1. Olivia Miles, TCU (from Notre Dame) - 55.6%
2. Oluchi Okananwa, Maryland (from Duke) - 20.0%
3. MiLaysia Fulwiley, LSU (from South Carolina) - 17.8%
4. Chit-Chat Wright, Iowa (from Georgia Tech) - 6.7%
5. Marta Suarez, TCU (from Cal, Tennessee) - 0.0%

Sixth Player of the Year

1. Angela Dugalić, UCLA - 57.8%
2. Imari Berry, Louisville - 20.0%
3. MiLaysia Fulwiley, LSU - 13.3%
4. Kyla Oldacre, Texas - 6.7%
5. Blanca Quiñónez, UConn - 2.2%

Offensive Player of the Year

1. Mikayla Blakes, Vanderbilt - 60.0%
2. Jaloni Cambridge, Ohio State - 13.3%
3. Sarah Strong, UConn - 11.1%
4. Azzi Fudd, UConn - 8.9%
5. Madison Booker, Texas - 6.7%

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame - 53.3%
2. Lauren Betts, UCLA - 22.2%
3. Raven Johnson, South Carolina - 17.8%
4. Rori Harmon, Texas - 6.7%
5. Sarah Strong, UConn - 0.0%

Player of the Year

1. Lauren Betts, UCLA - 43.2%
2. Sarah Strong, UConn - 31.8%
3. Mikayla Blakes, Vanderbilt - 13.6%
4. Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame - 11.4%
5. Madison Booker, Texas - 0.0%

Other 2026 r/NCAAW Awards:

Freshman Of The Year

Most Improved Player

Most Improved Team

Most Underrated Player

Most Underrated Team

Thread Of The Year

Storyline Of The Year

Conference Of The Year

Upset Of The Year

Regular Season Game Of The Year

Postseason Game Of The Year

Xavier building expectations for the first time in a while. Lots of teams were pretty young last year, so maybe a 2-bid (hopefully 3-bid) conference this year.

This is a simple, mostly objective rating system that uses three criteria to forecast future performance:

• Last year’s Win Shares – taken from Basketball Reference
• Projected playing time – shown as % of total minutes so 70% would mean roughly 28 minutes per game. To protect against the prospect of possibly injury affecting the number, the highest any individual player is forecasted is 75% playing time.
• Multiplier based on age/years played – using a multiplier that stat people way more competent than me use (Dean Oliver, Ken Pomeroy, Bart Torvik, etc) Here are the multiplier settings:
  • Year one – Year two: +40% (freshman to sophomore)
  • Year two – Year three: +15%
  • Year three – Years four/five: +10%
  • For transfers moving up from a non-Power 4 school, the multiplier is set at -20% based on historical data.
  • For Year one players based on 10-year research, Top 20ish players are given a blanket number of Win Shares that look roughly like: 50% playing time = 3 Win Shares. The higher the recruiting ranking, the higher the Win Shares.

Here are the definitions for the columns in the first slide:

• Last year’s Bart Torvik ranking is the first column.
• The next 4 columns are self-explanatory.
• “Min%-“ shows the % of last year’s total minutes that have left.
• Likewise, the next column shows the % of Win Shares that have left.
• “HGT” is the average height in inches of all players projected to play more than 10% of the team’s minutes. Research hints that taller teams, particularly teams that play taller players at the 4 & 5 slots, are better defensively.
• “AGE” is the average year of all players projected to play more than 10% of the minutes – “3” being what we used to refer to as a “Junior”. Teams with a higher number here tend to have less variance.
• “TALENT” is the average Top 100 recruiting ranking of the >10% players. The higher the number, the more top prospects on the roster.
• “Min %” shows the average playing time for the non-freshmen on the roster. Like the “AGE” column, the higher the number, the less variance in the projection.
• “PRPG!” shows the average Win Shares for the non-freshmen. Same variance argument here.
• The “WS+” & “WS-“ show the amount of non-freshman Win Shares returning & leaving the roster.

Since the playing time projections are my best guess, I’ve included each team’s roster showing playing time is included in the slides. My playing time projections are based on things like:

• Coach’s history – Shauna & Dawn have been shown to use very short benches, for example.
• Freshman & Transfer Hype / Position – Freshman bigs rarely play more than 50% of minutes & higher-rated prospects tend to play more. Also, high-profile transfers tend to get more minutes.
• Positional Balance – Teams that are heavy in the backcourt still need to play bigs. I try to balance this out.

Fresh off the coaches/media pre-season poll, I've included the projected Top 20 B1G players by Win Shares for fun. NOTE: Addy Brown in #21...

If you have a case for adjusting this number, please let me know & I’ll adjust the math to see the new totals in the comments here. Speaking of that, I’ll include the results that I got prior to last season in the comments as well.

And yes, I realize the Minnesota number will be controversial… Let's chop it up!

Navy is the consensus #1 in the Patriot League to start the year. Coming off a regular season title last year with conference POTY and DPOY Zanai Barnett-Gay, Navy look to get over the hump after an overtime loss to Lehigh in the Patriot League Semifinals ended their hopes of an NCAA tournament run.

Returning Barnett-Gay alongside Sophomore Zoe Mesuch and Junior Julianna Almeida, Navy maintains their top 3 leading scorers and assist leaders from last season. Joining Navy is a freshmen class that includes Kelsey Rhyne, who ended her high school career 9th all time in 3 pointers made in the state of North Carolina, and Isabela Grant, who saw action at the FIBA Central American U-19 Women’s Championship with Panama in 2025.

Army enters as the expected number 2 with returning first team all-conference Camryn Tade and second team Kya Smith receiving preseason all-conference honors. With Senior Taylor Wilson and Sophomore Reganne Reardon returning, Army returns 4 of their top 5 scorers, top 4 rebounders, and their top 2 assist leaders with Junior Brooke Wilson.

Lehigh gets Navy’s first place vote after knocking Navy out of the conference tournament 7 months ago. Bolstered by all-freshman team selection Leila Edwards and third team all-conference returner Whitney Lind, Lehigh looks to continue a string of strong seasons that saw the Mountain Hawks reach the finals of the patriot league tournament the last two years, including a title in 2025. With leading scorer Lily Fandre graduated, but much of the starting lineup still in tact, Lehigh enters hoping to play spoiler. The Mountain Hawks also begin their season at UCLA, so it can only get easier from there.

Reigning champs Holy Cross look to regroup after graduating 4 seniors who accounted for 2/3 of scoring and over half of rebounds a year ago. Seniors Janie Bachmann and Kendall Eddy lead the Crusaders who will hope their luck hasn’t run out as they attempt to make their 4th NCAA tournament in the last 5 years.

Reigning three-peat conference champion Fairfield looks to take a fourth in a row before the Stags move to the CAA next year. Fairfield has gone 64-2 in conference play since 2023, and return Metro Conference POTY Kaety L’Amoreaux who received Preseason POTY honors to start the season.

Siena with Sophomores Francesca Schiro and Kaiya Rain Tucker and Junior Nicole Melious look to make the leap, picked to finish 2nd and likely favorites next year if they keep the core with Fairfield leaving and Sacred Heart’s stars graduating this year. The Sophomore jump (or slump) could make Siena a dangerous contender this year.

Still, it’s Fairfield’s conference to lose, with their last loss to a conference opponent not named Quinnipiac being in the 2022-2023 conference tournament vs Siena.

Preseason All-AE

1. Kendall Bennett, Binghamton – Sr., Forward
   2. Bella Pucci, Binghamton – Sr., Guard
   3. Malia Lenz, Vermont – Sr., Guard
   4. Mia Mancini, Bryant – Sr., Guard
   5. Nia Scott, Bryant – Sr., Forward
   6. Heidi Williams, UMBC – So., Guard

America East Champs Vermont were picked third after 3/5 starters graduated. Binghamton kept pretty much everyone, and graduated only two seniors. But the tiers stay the same as last year’s results: 1-4 are still 1-4, 5-8 are still 5-8, and UMass-Lowell is still expected to be bad.