We've never had a top three at MSI this close
MSI 2026 by effective Elo (region-adjusted), after play-ins
This started as the most contested MSI ever, the top five within 125 Elo, tighter than any MSI before (2019's top four was 142). Then the play-ins split the field into three tiers:
The favorites: T1, BLG, HLE. Three teams within 56 Elo; we've never had a top three this close. T1 is #1 but only 65% to beat HLE in a Bo5. Any game between these three is a coin flip.
The dark horses: TES, G2. The only teams within striking distance, they started with near-identical Elo before Europe's play-in collapse split them. Nobody outside the top three has ever won an MSI, and G2 now sits 213 behind T1, so a G2 title would be the second-largest comeback in MSI history (RNG won from 233 Elo down in 2018).
Everyone else: LYON, FURIA, TSW
The bracket delivered.
The opening round has gifted us some of the closest matchups we'll see:
- T1 vs BLG: two best teams at the tournament (T1 60% Bo5)
- TES vs G2: two evenly matched dark horses (TES 63% Bo5)
- LYON vs FURIA: closer than it looks, LYON 64% Bo5. LCS has something to prove after Brazil trounced them in the Americas Cup.
- TSW vs HLE: Okay, not this one. But HLE playing the winner of TES v G2 next round will be awesome. TES has a 23% chance of beating HLE in the Bo5.
Honestly, any match that isn't a favorite vs. 'everyone else' should be worth watching, close games, or a real chance at an upset.
I built this site that tracks team Elo a while back and just recently revamped it and got international rankings working. You can see this MSI here: https://lolproelo.com/series/msi-2026