r/lolesports

Disclaimer: Claude was used for boilerplate, data collection, and validation scripts. All model design, architecture, and validation/testing method decisions are mine. This post is also 100% written by me.

I had this idea after looking at Riots official AWS power rankings for worlds. I liked the idea of using machine learning derived team rankings, but the AWS rankings place extreme weight on international performance only and don't react fast enough to real world changes with teams.

To fix this, I decided to train my own LightGBM model on every pro LoL game since 2013 (100k+ games). The first layer is a players rating engine. It's features are:
-player win loss/ratings, with kalman filter, adjusted for margin of victory and internationals
-player lane performance, residualized by the player's champion choice+all 9 other champs in the game to account for jungle/sup pressure, mid roams, utility picks vs lane win picks, etc.
-player damage share, again residualized by the other 9 champs
-allied and opposing team elos, lane matchup elo
Second layer is a Bradley-Terry elo system for the teams (AWS approach, but with proper domestic weighting) as a second opinion. These 2 layers are fed into a logistic regression that is trained on 2023 onward and refit monthly. Here are the testing results from my dataset:

Prediction	All	2025-01 to 2025-08	2025-09 onward
Ratings only	0.6104
Pre-draft game	0.5964	0.5974 (n 8,478)	0.5957 (n 11,050)
Post-draft game	0.5917	0.5945	0.5896
Series, calibrated	0.5415	0.5460 (n 4,209)	0.5377 (n 4,912)
Internationals, pre / post	0.6146 / 0.6021

Comparison	Model	Market	Verdict
Game pre-draft vs Polymarket (n ≈ 5,150)	0.6011	0.6112	model better
Game post-draft vs Polymarket	0.5945	0.6104	model better
Game pre-draft vs Kalshi (n ≈ 2,400)	0.6101	0.6110	tie (CI includes 0)
Game post-draft vs Kalshi	0.6029	0.6037	tie (CI includes 0)
Series vs Polymarket (n 3,173)	0.5486	0.5526	tie (CI includes 0)
Series vs Kalshi (n 1,783)	0.5436	0.5439	tie

And here here are the model's 2026 worlds predictions, from 100,000 simulations:

https://preview.redd.it/fbluh2l5vvuh1.png?width=1234&format=png&auto=webp&s=3dc44e560393ae0af4960200d8a02a4871921117

T1 worlds buff caveat: T1 has over performed significantly at every worlds since 2021 versus the model's expected wins. From 2021, their wins over expected were +2.6,+1.6,+4.1,+4.8,+3.1. No other team showed anything like this in testing. Their total wins over expected is +16.2, the next highest is +5.8. It's possible there's some signal that the model is missing, but I couldn't find it. Current hypothesis is that T1 genuinely posses a worlds buff, likely from the fact that they are experimenting/backing off slightly domestically. Any fix I tried to make the model expect T1 to win more at worlds made all of the other predictions worse.

With that being said, these predictions contain a boost for T1 at 1/4th the observed strength over the past 5 years. Results like T1's at at the last 5 worlds would be expected to happen by chance less than 0.5% of the time, suggesting true underlying performance increase at worlds vs the rest of the year. This adjustment accounts for that without simply boosting their performance by the exact observed amount. With the full boost derived from worlds since 2021, T1 shows a 52%(!!!!) chance to win worlds.

Hey guys, do you guys know where can I buy the playins tickets in LA? I looked at the famous websites and none of them have anything.

Hi all,

I’m trying to sell my worlds play ins day 1 ticket but there doesn’t seem to even be any listings for any play ins dates on any resale sites (stubhub, etc.) I wanna try to do it securely to minimize risk for both parties (aka I am NOT selling here) but there doesn’t seem to be a marketplace for it. Does anyone know of any sites where I can list my ticket? I got it thru tixr but they don’t allow resale for this event. Thanks!

Guys, I am a Newgen, I have to admit it, but I wanna have a blast watching worlds so help me out here

I Know basically everything about T1 because I spent a month watching every Worlds finals since the dawn of lol and T1 was always in those videos. Sorry but I installed the game knowing only a SINGLE name, faker, and he got disqualified from MSI the same day I made an account. (still wanna see faker win, idk why)

I Watched Dk's 14k gold loss and caedral's reaction, if this guy is rooting for them then so am I!

I watched DRX underdogs run and fell in love with the team then 3 seconds later realized the whole roster is changed so fuck em I guess? idk but feels bad

I Watched a 1 hour documentary of every time chovy lost a title, feel bad for him, wanna see him win but I don't like his style much.

I watched some games for theshy because apparently he is a top lane icon and I wanted to feel hyped for his qualification matches

I tried to look up why caps and his jungler (Sorry I forgot his name) are bald but couldn't find anything useful, hall of legends felt lame because they haven't won worlds but I guess theyre goated in their own leagues, but who knows I didn't watch much of any NA or EU team because everyone around me keeps saying they get railed by Asians idk why even try (You caught me at a very Korean time in my life)

anyways so are there any other great stories or great teams with great players? I Know I sound like someone who just learned what's a tv and picked interstellar and fight club, but I am willing to be niche guys!!