u/JWcommander217

The hate on this rally continues and I think the market definitely wants a pullback that hasn't come yet. You are seeing a lot of protection being bought with puts on a lot of positions and I think these places probably HAVE to buy puts to cover their shares that they have lent out to be sold short. I saw someone on some stupid tik tok saying that hedge funds have a $12 billion short against the AI trade which means its finally about to end but frankly--------even if that number is correct----------I think the AI bubble trade is at least $100 billion. So a 10%ish short is really just the market being the market and hedging. Not exactly a bet the market is going to go down.

I will say the good thing about having a President breaking the law and actively trading stocks in this market is that he is very attune to the market overall. The Treasury doubling its buy backs of debt is going to be good for some of the debt for sure. It would help if we weren't just re-issuing that debt again but alas whatever. Will save us some interest by converting to lower rates but not nearly enough IMO. We need revenue. Economy is stalling. A lot of "socialist" won last night in election day and again I'm a capitalist at heart. People are flirting with socialism bc capitalism in this country is clearly broken.

My wife's hospital company keeps building these stand alone ER's in low income areas all over Central florida and she has to work in them and it is ROUGGGGGH. Federal law says that an ER can't refuse service and the truth is that ER's in affluent areas don't make money bc they have to treat whoever comes through the door but the insurance companies decide not to pay for the services bc people should be going to a Primary care doctor instead. Well the ER doesn't get to make that call. They have to treat you. But Medicaid always pays. Her CEO can argue that "everyone deserves access to health care" but its such a naked cash grab its not even funny. They can barely staff what they have and they are building more and more. We need universal health care for PCPs where people stop going to the ER for stupid shit. That alone would save us a fortune. We need revenue. Need money. Need to stop running deficits. Thats what is pushing rates up. People aren't buying the debt bc they are tapped out. Whatever rant over.

AMD is right back on that 50 day EMA. Remember with my chart my VWAP indicator determines the color so you can ignore the red color bc that just indicates that we gapped down below my VWAP which welllll yea you know. (Interesting idea that I want you guys to know I literally just came up with my ADHD brain-----Use ChatGPT to write thinkscript code for AI powered charting tools) Interesting thought there.

I closed my shorts yesterday and I think I'm going to just rinse and repeat on around that $500 level on my calls. If we go lower I might even add to my long position and see if I can't rotate our my December calls a little further and buy some more time premium with some shorts.

Wellllllll now. So Friday I said i was going to take a bet bc I felt that AMD was set for some constructive movement out of this wedge. I wanted for the open to calm down and took a small 3 option position. Nothing crazy. But so far sooooo good. We are getting the breakout I was hoping for.

The key level for me for us to get above was $500 now that it had broken free of that 50 day EMA and we got that and then some. MACD has given us a bullish cross which could be opening a new rally after a consolidation period and our RSI is still in a neutral zone which could signal anything from here.

So now the question comes down to-----do I trim a little today or let it ride????

Soooo again the fail of AMD at the 50 day EMA left me looking for some advice. I did the thing that I never thought I would do-----I uploaded my chart into ChatGPT:

My read right now

I'd characterize AMD as:

🟡 Neutral → potentially bullish

Not bullish yet.

I'd want to see:

$486 reclaim → $500 breakout → $518 breakout

That's the progression I'd watch.

If AMD gets above $500 and holds, I'd become substantially more interested in the bullish case.

If it gets above $518, the pattern becomes much more convincing because you've then broken the prior swing high and established a genuine higher-high.

And $535–542 becomes the next obvious target zone.

The really attractive risk/reward would potentially be a breakout around $500, with the pattern invalidation down around $457, and a first target around $518, followed by ~$540.

So yes: I think you're seeing a legitimate potential bottoming pattern here — but the chart hasn't confirmed it yet. $500 is the line I'd be staring at.

Sooooo interesting. Hmmmmm that it is pretty interesting what the machine said and gotta say I feel a little validated for me. Really interesting thoughts that I've been digging through and thinking about it as inspiration:

-RSI is literally flatlining at the midpoint. It is perfectly neutral neither yay or nay which sets us up for perhaps something interesting

-MACD looks like it finally might be attempting to cross positive. This is a confirmation signal and not a predictive one but I do think it could be confirming that the consolidation might be coming to an end here.

-AMD rejected hard off of that $424 level at the end of July and since then we've had an ascending triangle pattern with higher lows being put in over the past 2 trading weeks. I gotta say with all the action we've been seeing at the 50 day EMA would could be coming to a breakout inflection point or breakdown here. If we breakout then the seasonality rally could be on.

I'm going to add a few calls today after the morning burst wears off. Futures are mixed and the mehhhhhh action could lower option prices around noonish. This is a pure gamble type play and I do not advise people to follow me with size. I might try to do a spread to make it neutral but cap my upside.

Goooood lord anyone else feel like this 50 day EMA is becoming the death mark???? We are tied right to this thing like a homing missile. We are stuck as long as we stay tethered to this level. Oil------Missiles--------Inflation-----------all of it is just stagnation.

The market wants to gallop higher but it just can't because all of these policies just equal BAD.

So where are we until then??? again I want to fall lower to get the full reset and entry that I want.

What about a different chart here???? Lets take a look at NVDA.

NVDA is the opposite of AMD right now heading into earnings. It has perked up after being mostly stagnate for the entire year. But I love that this move came off of the 200 day EMA. Now this is a lot easier bc NVDA has been flat for months now and that 50 day and 200 day EMA have moved a lot closer. But for me that is exactly the area of strength you want to see movement off of going into earnings for a sustained breakout to a new high on the back of earnings.

Never underestimate Jensens ability to tell a fairy tale. Also I feel like his debt raise announcement kinda feels very self serving......Its like he's helping people raise debt so they can buy his product and stick them with the bill. Very predatory but could be a signal of peak mania.

Happy Monday. I work with offshore teams and the Philippines had a Typhoon hit over the weekend and my team in Colombia just had a 6.4 magnitude earthquake hit Bogota. Soooo Its a busy morning for me today. Putting this up just for the daily post but obviously I can't do a write up today. Sorry folks

Uggggh okay lets dig into the report and talk about it honestly here:

-Great report. Great earnings. I was pleased with the guide. Like I think we delivered exactly what we want for making the case to own AMD for the next 2 years. The problem is that this was priced for a blowout and a blowout this was not. Was this traditional Lisa sandbagging??? ehhhhh i dunno if we can lay this on on her. I think the market has far detached itself from what is considered a good earnings

-CAPEX-------oooooof good lord that number was a lot more than what anyone had. Ehhhhhh I think there will be a lot of rationalization and think pieces on that adjustment up. How much of that is buying the pieces to really build and assemble our new full rack system and a one time charge vs continued spend. Is any of it creative accounting tucked in to hide some of the money used for some of these "investments" into AI partnerships we've signed??? That number immediately jumps off the page as scary but its not exactly a bad thing. You have to spend money to make money but I also am a little concerned about concentration risk.

-AMD Q2 2026: More Exposed To AI Capex Than Ever Before (NASDAQ:AMD) | Seeking Alpha ----Really solid article and worth taking a look at

-From the above: "If present trends continue, revenue will be 26% higher than FY 2025 – a slight slowdown relative to the growth in the previous year. Meanwhile, R&D expenses will be 18% higher than in FY 2025 while diluted earnings per share (EPS) will be 68% higher." But the biggest concern is the concentration in Data Center

-Helios deliveries start shipping this quarter with it really ramping up in Q4. So that means we should get some early data on performance and as long as it hits, then I think we will be okay still. Remember I was saying that the stock felt bearish going into the earnings and all of the optimism in the world for the future can't get over the fact that we had a lot of bearish signals being below the 50 day EMA and that acting as a resistance line.

-EPYC is still the unsung hero of this story and I still think it is heavily undervalued in this desire to race to the AI future. I do worry that we are really chasing the money here and if we take our eye off some of our other segments then we are going to be super concentrated in one segment that people are already whispering "bubble talk." I always felt that was our diversification that made AMD a strong play vs NVDA for sure. But we seem to be moving in one direction which yes is great for our stock and share price but the question comes down to are you a long term investor or trying to ride this wave????

Earnings day

The street is forecasting EPS of $1.35 which is strong for sure and I wonder if we are going to beat but by how much??? I don't think AMD misses but I do think that EPS has gone up in a big way and I'm not sure if we are there yet??? I hope so but hey who knows. I still was targeting a run up in OCT/NOV on the back of initial Helios deliveries.

Biggest thing is I'm hoping we get some initial delivery dates and perhaps some confirmed early order numbers that might come through? I do wonder how they are going to report it since it is multiple segments merged into just the DC model. I'm guessing maybe it all just falls under Server???? or Client?

I don't know but I think this is gonna be a great day for us. Still would be concerned with the fact that yesterday we closed again with the 50 day EMA being resistance which doesn't bode well for us if you ask me for where the market feels it is right now.

Okay okay so Friday continued to show that the 50 day EMA is not acting like support. We broke through it on Friday and I had stated at the start of that day that I was concerned about how it was the unofficial resistance line for Thursday's session which made me concerned.

Earnings are up and while we usually see a mini earnings rally we are not seeing that which to me points to a bottoming out event. AMD has this amazing luck of delivering good earnings into horrible geopolitical scenarios so I bet overnight IRAN deal will probably get worse and expect more attacks and oil to spike tomorrow night or something like that.

But for me thats what I'm hoping happens. That run to $400. That will be a huge entry point for me to really go whole hod on this. AMD historically is a great performing from a seasonality perspective here and buying this cheaper is not a bad thing. I want to load up as we go into Helios. So lets see what happens.

Okayyyyyyyyyyyyy things are getting a little spicy here. Tech selloff is accelerating in a big way and I don't think we've seen the bottom at all. I think the macro sucks even with the pause with Iran. No one feels like this is a win. No one feels like this is a breakthrough. It's more like a pause bc we are spending a fortune of gold and treasure for absolutely nothing. AI spending concerns are hitting the road as well as people start concerning about the debt too.

The non-sexy non stocks are doing well. The tech plays I have are lagging. I recently participated in SPCX and SKHY IPOs with a few shares of each and ooooooo that is not great at all. My NFLX is not looking great either. I'm happy I sold my MU shares at $1020 and my tried and true MO is still my best winner for the year.

So what do we do when everyone is selling??????????? It's time for the good ole contrarian play. This is why you always keep some powder dry and start thinking about buying. Earnings are going to be strong but they aren't going to be enough so I think people are starting to see the books are cooked and its going to come down to cash flow. Cash is king. So think about companies that have REAL SALES and are tech adjacent. That's why the Semi's usually are smart plays. You get the benefit of tech but backstopped with real sales. Its not like the normal tech model where they operate at a loss.

Thats why I don't like AMD's debt financing type deal. It is upsetting that balance a bit and feeding the tech beast. And I wonder if the companies are turning to their semi-customers bc they are facing liquidity crunches in the debt market as people get concerned about their ability to repay????

AMD broke through the 50 day EMA and I think there is no stop below until the $450 level and next handle is $400. Might see some minor support form but honestly thats where I'm targeting. I want to buy sub $450 which means I'll start picking up some shares as we approach that level but until we get there I'm sitting back and watching.

And then because I'm a glutton for punishment----MU I'll see you at $700 and I'll have my checkbook open

Fell through our support trendline again on Friday which confirms that it really is no longer a good trendline of support. Overall AMD took a lurch a little higher and faded with less of a high and the chart continues to look weak as fuck compared to the valuation.

The market today is opening higher on enthusiasm that we could see a further easing of tensions with Iran but at the end of the day I feel like our pause is more related to a shortage of munitions and Iran is eager for any reprieve they can get at this point. But I highly down that members of their republican guard will get the memo. So I would fade this little mini rally if it was me. Throw new tariffs coming into play at exactly the worst possible time and I think this market is starting to be very very top heavy and is due for a pull back in the coming months.

This is where you trade but don't invest. Just my thoughts of course but I would stay nimble as possible and only target short term positions.

Crashing out?

AMD is sort of crashing out sideways from our recent support trendline. We broke it firmly earlier this year and yesterday we also broke through the line again on the intraday. So I do think that support line really isn't a great trading indicator anymore. Really is a range pattern that has been forming with a little bit of a wedge pattern here which some people have already called out but I've been a little late not wanting to give up my trendline.

Good to see INTC participate in the AI rally. You know that when "late to the party" INTC is finally seeing some benefits, it kinda shows that people are desperate for compute power and will spend anywhere to get something. A reminder of why Helios is such an important launch for AMD as it keeps us both in the Cloud DC space and the AI race as well. If we solely focus on AI, we might not have chips to sell and INTC could pick up the scraps.

I dunno I'm not really putting a lot of stock in INTC performance. A rising tide lifts all boats and they have waited a full 3-5 years to ship a decent product. I feel they are probably being bought to scavenge their memory at these rates. But yea I'm not a believer.

sorry things running late. IT issues on the other side of the world I've been working on all morning. VPN sucks

Wellllllll Friday was a wild ride. We dipped below that 50 day EMA but didn't want to be held down as the first support point kicked into high gear. I was able to pick up a few shares but my big buy point was around that $450 level and we never got there to trigger it. I did snag 20 shares though which is nice but not what I was looking for.

We seem to be ready for a return back as the entire chip sector is looking for a relief rally. I will say just as a word of warning, its not a bottoming out has been hit, mainly bc we were so overbought it was crazy. But I don't think we are there yet and there definitely is further downside to go. But I do think we are at that midpoint and that is why the market is pausing here. Its not exactly like there has been a materialize change to the chip market. We are seeing the drawdown for sure that is people taking profits. But its not like there is a reason for us to really give up a lot of gains below that. No one has come out and said, yeaaaaaaaaaa I'm slowing my spend down. Yeaaaaaaaaa I'm re-evaluating my purchases. Like it is business as usual.

So you have to keep that in mind when looking at your strategy and be buying these moves down in small lots to DCA into a position. Next dip that you see, might not be perfect but you have to ask do you really expect AMD to give a miss in the next quarter??? Next quarter we should get more color on Helios demand that should be getting ready to ship. So I think when you think about it, there is value here. That does not mean that you should buy today just bc I'm saying that. I would wait for red days and thats when I would do my buying and sit back and watch on todays like today where we are indicating a green open.

Okayyyyyyyyy now things get interesting boys and girls. I was able to pick up 5 mor shares yesterday at $492.5 and today the march lower continues as chips sell off. Soooooo what do we do?

Well I'm making a shopping list for value and sizeable buys:

-AMD is set to open almost at the 50 day EMA which is at $480.32 and the open right now is indicating below that but maybe above??? Gonna be a sticky spot for sure and lets see if support opens up. If it doesn't, there is a very real chance we could see another drawdown to $400 level which sounds crazy I know but there would also be a stop at that $450 level too. But I will be buying below $480.

-MU just had a great quarter and their earnings were fantastic. Me selling at $1200 looks like the trade of my life when you consider that I bought it at $100 sold at $1200 and am thinking about getting back in. This is one of my best trades and do I want to fuck up my record by jumping into it again??? Yes I do. Why bc I hate myself. I think MU has had a monster move and I do think there is a honest to got conversation about the memory glut continuing and are these investments sustainable. Wake me up when we get below $750

-INTC. I hate this stock. Fucking stupid. Can't deny that they ahve a huge investment with Trump owning it so pretty much has a federal backstop at this point. Which is anti-capitalism which I am not for. No reason IMHO for this to be above $80. ehhhhhhh that 200 day EMA around $73-$75 might be too good of a deal to pass up honestly

-NVDA didn't really participate in the crazy rally like everyone else and also hasn't really sold off like everyone else. Is this just a flight to quality and de-risking some of the more momentum names????? Could be??? I say below the 50 day EMA NVDA has found support and that 200 day is strong. Buy below $207 and above $190 and your money is probably safe for the long haul. So if you are looking for a safe haven, this might be it.

-MUU for Tex----- looks like it might be about to bottom out on RSI which was as signal back in April that started this monster move. is that about to happen again????? I might be looking at buying this below the 200 day EMA at $19 and seing if we get another run higher. At that price point You can drop 100 shares and see if you can 2x or 3x your money

Bloooood in the water. Its time to ride boys!!!!! Okasyyyyyyyyyyyyy

So semi's are taking a big ole donkey dump and we finally broke our trendline. Today is set to open even lower as well and I think this is the moment we've been waiting for. It is buy buy buy opportunity from here on down to $475. Anything below that and ehhhhhh maybe stop and wait for the bottom to form up again???

Again sometimes you just gotta wait and AMD will give ya your chance. But for those wanting to shoot their shot, I think we are coming down into the place where an attractive (still extremely expensive) entry could be justified looking at the historical performance. Remember that the OCT/NOV months have been the best performing for AMD for the past 4-5 years now and in that period, its returns have been 2nd to none in the Semi-space. So I do think there is a big conversation about an attractive entry for a swing trade potentially. But getting there is the big question and will you get that entry???

I'm thinking about some January 27 calls at the $550 level and those would be VERY OTM if we drop down to $475 or below. But I think it is entirely reasonable to get a return there.

Also remember this oldie but goodie that Tex convinced me to buy a year ago today??? UNH!!!!!!! I bought my shares at $282.3 and it is a reminder that your ocre businesses continue to print money no matter what. Sometimes you just have to let your winners run!

So I've been playing around with Claude for some other projects and I really want to try to build a real time analysis agent bc i think you can start to make a potential prediction here. We are definitely seeing this $550 resistance area forming here as we go into our new earnings cycle. We might not get a formal breakout until a pre-earnings runup. But what we really need is a volume spike.

AMD has faded back into the background again and we are at that 20 million ish shares trading range that has sort of resulted in the mehhhhhhhh churn for AMD. We need a spike above that range.

Thats where my idea for an agent to sort of do predictive real time volume analysis to see if AMD is surging ahead of that area as we approach that $550 range. That could give us a tradeable signal that would allow us to sell calls and buy them back later. My options strategies are bonkers right now with the price increases bc the strikes movement is sooooooooo wild. Usually I was targeting strikes with a delta of 0.36 but that is getting hit in the first 10 min of trading so I need to come up with a different marker for sure.

Who else has ridden the SKHY train??? Bumpy as fuck so far. I picked up 10 shares at $172 and blehhhh I just dont know what I don't know lol

Gooood effing lord. Yesterday was an absolutely batshit crazy ride right???? Trying to keep my head about me and figure out what is going on. But yesterday was a massive dip below in the memory stocks but AMD didn't really move that much surprisingly.

I wonder if that was the first test of some weakness that is forming in the memory stocks and yesterday was a limit test to try to find a support zone. But with Iran heating up and inflation being problematic I think we could be in for some rough sledding. CPI coming in lighter than expected honestly was a big shock to me and I wonder if it was partly due to the reduction in Oil prices we started to see as the market shifted. I am concerned that the Fed is going to want to cut but is going to be forced to raise rates to help with inflation and give a double whammy.

I think lower rates could help some of the DC spend and investment into energy resources that AMD needs to keep the sales machine going. We still are above that trendline but I'm waiting to see what happens if we fall. This chart looks scary as fuck to me as the divergence on RSI and MACD from the price can be clearly seen. I do wonder if part of it as well is I'm just not used to seeing these massive price candles on AMD when in reality it still is our standard 4-5% move just bc our share price has gone up. I've been looking at AMD as a two digits stock probably for the better part of 8 years now. So it still is hard for me to adjust to these current prices.