u/JWcommander217

buyer beware

Mentally I'm checked out for the holidays especially after that BULLLLLLLLLLLLL SHIT red card from last nights game. The world can't handle that Merica might be decent at soccer (yea I said it) so they can't let us have that too!!!! Just feeling Star-Spangled-Awesome and Go USA.

Also as someone who proudly grew up in Virginia, the song Country road is about Virginia. Not West Virginia. Those mountaineers are stupid what can I say.

So light trading day and even lighter work. Gonna be honest here and say that Market is going to be screwy bc of weak jobs numbers. I think as labor market continues to slow down and unemployment rises, we are going to see the chances of another Fed Rate hike actually come off the table. Which the market is cheering but at the end of the day that could lead to this crappy situation where they are sort of limited in their responses and what they can do to stimulate the economy because of stagflation fears.

Enjoy the long break everyone!

New Month

Okay we've got a new month and new quarter and new 2nd half of the year and yesterday was a LOT of closing out buying I think to do some last chance rebalancing for ETFs and funds.

I think overall looking at the data points this was a strong move for AMD and the timing in particular was great. A lot of funds were probably trying to add more shares of AMD at an attractive price point and had only until the end of the day yesterday to do it. I think everyone has been waiting for those sub $500 prices to hit and it just didn't look like AMD was going to give it up that quickly.

Instead we had really strong buying and a volume spike as well that is more than just retail buying. We are looking at a MACD cross which is a lagging indicator for sure but also look at our RSI trendline. Are we taking a walk on the wild side above that trendline??? If so that could be the signal of some strength. If AMD returns to that mean and the trendline is intact then I think we are solid but yesterday was a clear buying day for AMD and we were rewarded with another new ATH.

It's nice to know that we are the company that the street wants to own. And it was great to have Cramer suck our dicks on the pre-show yesterday for a solid 15 min. Like it or not, he moves markets for sure.

Whiplash

Yesterday price action was more than a 10% swing intra-day...............what the heck is going on???? Anyone else feel like they have a handle on this direction???? Someone made the comment that the market really wanted people to stoploss out at that $500 level and I honestly don't know if that idea is as crazy as it sounds. yesterday was wild.

AMD spent a majority of the day ceding a lot of ground to get below that $500 level which was one of my first triggers for me to start looking at buying. All my alerts fired off and I started looking at L2 data to see where I wanted to get in and I personally just couldn't get a handle on it. I do want to note specifically that the volume yesterday was nothing impressive either. the day before we had a lot less movement and triple the volume of yesterday so I think for sure there is some people who have really been pushing the volatility here or it could be the signals of the effects of leveraged funds on slower trading days.

Either way, the fact that AMD took a walk on the wild side below $500 tells us two conflicting tales:

-The first, is that this is probably testing the waters for going lower and it is true that there were psychological support zones and places where people were setting their losses at a hard stop at -10% which is a thing for sure.

-The other side of the coin is that there are people like me who are sniffing around for a deal. Looking for value to try to get in at a bigger position for the fall ride and launch of Helios. Time is starting to creep up and I think I keep having to raise my price target a bit but if enough people have trigger buy orders at a specific price point, you can see the wild moves we say yesterday.

smoldering

So I don't know how the rest of you are doing but Florida is absolutely cooking in this heat. My swimming pool is literally 94 degrees which kinda defeats the point of having a swimming pool but I guess its maybe a little refreshing for 2 mins???? Speaking of things that are heating up, our peace deal with Iran seems to be full fledged war as usual but Oil is not responding like it is. I think because they are seeing the immediate relief of Iranian sanctions and the goal of the administration to claim victory when there is none to be found as a good thing. The goal of getting more oil into the market seems to be shared by everyone, including the Iranians, who are desperate to re-start their economy. As long as Oil is below $70-$75 I think the market is going to surge higher.

So MU seems to be trying to find its floor from its earnings and the season feels like its officially over. The quarter ends this week and we have a shortened trading week. I would be cautious here as I still think AMD is going to stagnate. I am looking to get back in with a big big way from buying and I'm still waiting for my price target. That is the biggest lesson I have learned from AMD over the years..............patience. If you wait, it will give you a chance at your price point as long as its grounded in some sort of reality. I'm not chasing this today even with the upgrades. I think short week is going to prime us for some market manipulation and we might come back from this weekend with some hard selling.

The chart is the chart

I know that I'm super busy and can't interact with everyone all day on here like I have been able to in the past during the trading day but I do read the comments afterhours at night. I think its interesting and you guys all contribute to bring up some really good points and I just want you all to know that I appreciate the discussion and discourse. You guys make me better every day.

So I know some of you disagree with my assessment that I think we have more consolidation and retracement incoming but I'm just looking at the chart. The chart is the chart is the chart. I don't have to be a rocket scientist to see the divergence on this chart here. Now here is my thoughts and this isn't just TA as I've got a couple different arguments here:

-dont get mad at me I'm just saying the chart looks like its slowing down and after a major move up like we've experienced, a consolidation period is honestly to be expected.

-Our 200 day EMA and 50day EMA have the largest spread I think I've ever seen on AMD which shows that the longer term trend needs to do a lot of catching up to really lock in those gains. Lot of downside in the future potentially until that 200 day starts to lock in and approach that gap level of $357.

-Seasonality arguments--------for those of you that took profits a retracement would be a great thing. If you look at AMD from a seasonality place----Oct/November is our greatest month ever from a historic perspective. It's been the place where we ship new skus and that also will be the launch window for Helios opening up where product will ship and we will get sales data.

A lull here from an over-extended market would be the mother of all dip buying opportunities IMHO opinion. I might consider selling everything else and putting 100% in AMD bc that is how strong my conviction is----------Dont do this. That is me being hyperbolic. Please stay diversified.----------But profit taking and consolidation are a healthy thing in a normal healthy market. Things should not just go up and to the right all the time. So lets see what unfolds for the last trading week of June. Remember we have a short week next week as well.

Micron to the rescue???

Okay so the entire market interpretation is this: Prior to MU earnings, everyone was really freaking out about the chip trade being over extended. Micron reported unbelievable margins and profitability that has pushed it past some of the most valuable companies in the world. We saw broad de-risking this week as everyone took profits. Now Micron has reported and said yeaaaaaaaaaaa this train isn't slowing down anytime soon. Everyone piles back into the chip trade.

Okay everyone caught up????

MU is always the last one of the season for us so them closing it out strong is good. Again I thought it was a strong report. The biggest thing for me that I saw was the new 16 partner agreements. Thats the story. Is the boom and bust cycle for memory finally coming to an end and they are going to have more stability??? That is an interesting story now. Micron might not be riding the wave anymore which is a change.

Looking through the rest of the report, yea their margins doubled from a year ago but next quarter they are guiding only a 2% increase in margins which does show that their "growth" might be slowing down as they reach max capacity. The other tradeoff with those partner agreements is that they lose the pricing power a bit in exchange for a that "take or pay" commitment. So I do gotta say I'm interested a bit in the report. I do think that the rush in today is perhaps a little exuberance and I would urge caution.

AMD was at the precipice of that short term support target of $500 and today's price action is going to pull us firmly away from that area. But again volume is lagging and I think its a lot of speculator day trading that we are used to seeing in AMD. I'm thinking of shorting this rally here as I'm not sure that it will last. I think there is enough there to lock in some of the price gains and limit our downside for sure but I'm not sure we will get the story that pushes AMD higher at the moment. Of course now we will get a new ATH but is this AMD leading the way that this rally was defined by recently this year or is it AMD being dragged around by the SOX and SMH????

hmmmmmm

Okay so Yesterdays selloff is done with. Looks when you really watch the entire market like there has been a re-rating of where these chip stocks are being valued. I think a lot of this really fell on the back of Micron. I think the market took a look at the valuation and said yeaaaaaaaaaaaa too rich for my blood. Need to see a little more from them. I heard someone on CNBC yesterday parrot my line about "no new production coming." Is an analyst reading these post lol???? I use a lot of swear words for an analyst................FUCK IT.

Micron is going to give us earnings today and I think we probably are going to be seeing some more movement. I think Micron has done a really good job on delivering and I would consider just a reiterate as a win here. I'm not sure how much more they are going to be able to raise guidance on the back of just pricing power but I think the market is not going to be happy without a beat and 25x the guidance which I just don't see happening but hey maybe I'm wrong.

Interesting yesterday, we saw some buying from the lows at AMD so I do think that someone else is targeting a buy of this dip as well. Or perhaps they are just getting in front of a dip and pushing a short. Would be interested to see what the short interest is today for AMD and if its growing at all. To see such a rejection from an ATH the day before is not a good sign for the rally. If this was AMD on its own, then it would have shown some resistance to yesterdays selloff but it didn't really. I definitely think we have further downside coming and I also think we are in for some churn.

I'm not ready to draw it yet but we have the early stages of a price channel/trading range forming around that $550 level at the top an $450 at the bottom. I would like to see another test of that $450 level but there could be a lot of money to be made here while AMD starts to trade into this new range prior to Helios in a wait and see moment.

Volume

So yesterday was a risk but I opened up some credit call spreads at the end of the day based on the volume and the candle. Going to be a nice little bag of money for me I think. Nothing crazy but will walk away with may $1500 for a days worth of work.

For me looking at yesterday, We had a MASSIVE indecision candle while also hitting a new ATH on some of the lowest volume we've had in months. That isn't exactly conviction buying there. I think someone got some sort of advance whisper on MU and is agreeing with what I was saying yesterday. Their growth isn't sustainable without some major new production there. You can only price things so much before people start working solutions. MU is falling and as a result it is dragging ALLLLL the chip stocks down with it for a good ole fashioned shakeoff.

Get ready everyone this could be the start of a multiple day rout and a buying opportunity. Sharpen your pencils and pull out your dry powder. Might get a chance to pick up AMD anywhere near $450-$428 which I think is a sweet spot for buying a dip before we get into the fall rally and deployment of helios.

Interesting side note: I was playing around with Docker installer for AI agents last night and some Git code. The installation with Docker offered windows desktop: x86 AMD or x86 ARM installation. Just an odd little thing there. No where was INTC mentioned at all. I'm wondering if that is a little nod of the cap that no one who is using these advanced tools would be caught dead with an INTC powered device?

Annnnd I'm Back

Okay sorry about my little temper tantrum on Thursday but Frankly I was just over it. Oil is continuing to back down which is great even though it sounds like Iran and the US have zero common ground other than Iran's major position of "bend over and lube up." But hey this is what happens when you wield the power of the presidency recklessly. But lower oil is enough to surge any and all markets as a rising tide raises all boats and lower oil prices literally mean lower prices for welllllllll everything.

I think it being a shortened OPEX week as well is always interesting. I was looking at the AMD chart and noticed how much volume we had with very little movement in our share price. Could have been people rolling positions and I know June and January are the more popular option expiration dates for big firms.

This is still why I think indicators on a chart are important. AMD is moving hire in pre-market and we know that MU earnings on Wednesday are going to trigger a lot of speculation. I have to be honest, I'm not sure how MU can deliver any earnings that support this valuation at this point without an ability to triple their production capacity. So perhaps if MU has like 5 secret production facilities they are bringing on line this month then great but without that, I gotta think we are starting to stretch that valuation. But take a look at the other indicators on my chart. RSI and MACD both are looking bearish. It is clear that AMD move has started to stall a bit here and I don't think it is a bad idea to consider some strategies where you can consider ways for you to take some of your profits off the table.

Fuck me

Ya know I just..............Today I'm going to just take the day off and go play golf. Not look at my screens. Yesterday was just tons of fun as far as layers of bullshit. Let me explain:

-Warsh does not appear to be Mr. Cut rates. He was always a hawk before and it looks like the Hawk is back in control again. Which I mean hey suuuuuuuuuuuuuure maybe he's just responding to the data and the info and the current situation of inflation. He doesn't want hyper inflation and he knows that he can't cut right now............But to me his presser, he sure sounded like a man with a vision and that vision is less active Fed or maybe the fever dream of killing the Fed????

-Why can't this administration ever choose just the normal easy route? Like Jesus fucking Christ???? Warsh is ending perhaps forward guidance and is going to revamp the communication structure of the fed which has been around for I dunno like the past 40 years?? Committee on data sources??? Okay that is very good. Now we are talking. Bc we all know our current stats and whatnot are bullshit at this moment so that I can buy into. But everything else??? I dunno just seems like a lot at once. Like he is going to completely remake the institution in this fever dream that can't literally do this much at once if they try. I feel like this current gov't has shown itself incapable of walking and chewing gum at the same time so I don't know how these 5 committees are going to all fulfill their mandates at once.

-Iran deal----------Jesus christ. The text finally came out. If anyone was wondering------- this is what total capitulation looks like. $300 Billion fund to rebuild what we bombed. All sanctions removed. US returning all frozen assets to Iran. Us withdrawing all of our military from the region (I wonder what the definition of region is). Israel to return Lebanon to its original borders (fat chance). Like this is what desperation looks like and if THIS is the deal they made then GOOOOOOD effing god. I want the Iranian negotiators. This is up there with the Munich Agreement (for you history buffs). Soooooo yea.

Good news energy is coming down. Bad news is pretty much everything else right now seems to be chaos and I don't see a full throughput anywhere that is like-----buy this market

Yikes

Okay so yesterdays price action did not do us any favors but I think it shows us how much this rally was based on Macro optimism for the hope that the Iran solution was finally at hand. Now as always---Trump has been very dialed into the pulse and mood of people. Sometimes he doesn't give a flying fuck about the mood and just does whatever he wants. But it appears the test balloons and "leaks" of the MoU details that have come out are being widely panned by both sides of the aisle as total capitulation. Notice how they sent JD Vance out to try to sell it to the populous??? I think Rubio is too smart and doesn't want his face anywhere near this so he is free to run for President again.

Except for the echo chamber of Jesse Waters on Fox---- and even he was struggling to sell this---- I don't think anyone is looking at this as "we are winning anything." But I also think that the hard truth is that if we don't get off this bus now, we will be riding around this block for months, maybe even years to go. This is the result of a bad situation and Israel is continuing to bomb the shit out of Lebanon. I think even Trump is not happy with the deal but I also think he's smart enough to know that it doesn't get better. Truthfully I think it would be best if we all stopped bitching about it and just kinda shut up and take our medicine. Lets move on to the next thing bc fucccccccck. His "we will start bombing again" comments at G7 have spooked the market with a rise in Oil. I was kinda hoping Warsh's first Fed meeting was going to really give the market something to look forward to as people start trying to take his temperature. Now I'm worried Warsh's entire first year + is going to be gobbled up trying to mitigation inflation risks due to energy.

AMD fell back out of our channel again which is further confirmation that the channel we've been in is broken. That base trendline is dead and no longer acting as any support so we need to figure out the new move. Again that area of $550 appears to be an area of confluence and looks like it could be a key resistance level for the time being. So we might want to focus on that. Everything below that is churn and I'm not in BUY AMD mode until we get below $450. I think there is a sweet spot between $450 and the 50 day EMA of $414.78 where we've got some value opportunities.

But looking at our MACD and RSI overall the move appears to be over as they confirm what we are seeing on the chart with our rising channel. And I think we might be headed lower in the next month or so.

Someone said ooooof. I double that ooooof

So yea PPI came in hotter than expected on the backs of higher energy prices. So lets deepen our attacks on Iran rightttt? Sweet. All on the same page???? My heart just isn't this today as I've got an interview with another company that I'm really excited about.

AMD crashed yesterday but no more than the rest of the market. Again that $450 level gap fill provided some support so that is the pivot point for us to keep an eye on. Breaking through that and there really is nothing between us and the 50 day EMA at $400 so buckle up. But if we can get some sticky support and the market has a strong rally Friday and its the OPPOSITE of the shit show of last week, well we might get lucky here.

We just need to hold on here until MU earnings which I fully expect to inject some life into the semis. We will get dragged up with that, just need to dig in and hold this level.

Welllllp

CPI Plus no Iran deal when Trump assured us it was "days away" and the financial picture for the American consumer looks pretty bleak right now. I think we are looking at a nightmare scenario of high inflation, higher oil, and a slowing economy which is really going to limit what the Fed can do. The standard playbook is cut here and Warsh seems like he still wants to get creative with the balance sheet as well. So I'm not sure exactly where we are going to end up here.

Gotta thank Zads for throwing up the channel breaking. Sometimes you stare at enough charts and you dont see the forest through the trees. We saw yesterday the clearest sign that the market is shedding a lot of this run but we also got our gap fill as well at that $450 level I was calling out. Yesterdays price action if it was just AMD I would say shows that there are buyers willing to step in at a certain point but I'm unsure if thats the case bc the braoder market is flashing warning signalts here. We might get caught up in all of this and I gotta say I'm looking to close that gap around $360 as a place to initiate a strong new position as well. If we dip that hard and fast in the coming days then I think you HAVE to be a buyer there.

But first things first, that 50 day EMA at $395 is going to offer some support and I'm thinking that $400 level being the top of the gap is going to be the spot where AMD will stop no matter what. So If you see AMD below that $400 level I would start buying IMHO.

WTF

What the hell did you guys do??? I go to Italy for a nice long weekend and JESUS CHRIST you broke the stock market on Friday?!?!?!?! I swear to GOD I am NEVER going away again because clearly I can't trust you guys to handle things while I'm gone!

Wellllll I've got today as a "get a handle on what the heck is going on" type move. So I'm trying to understand everything that has been going on and resetting my expectations. SpaceX is on Friday and that is probably going to be a once in a lifetime IPO event which is going to be pretty interesting for sure. I submitted for some allocation through Schwab so lets see if I get a piece.

AMD took a deep plunge on Friday with the rest of the market and the volume was there. We finally got into the pullback on the RSI that we were looking for and yesterdays volume didn't exactly scream conviction. We almost got a gapfill won to that $450 level but that never happened so that dollar amount is still out there somewhere just FYI. I would potentially be cautious about buying today as I still think we will get another crack at that.

New ATH in pre-market

So This is gonna be my last post for the week and AMD is seems to be taking my trip enthusiasm a little early??? or perhaps the big money finally believes in the "me doing international travel trade???"

Also I think it's safe to announce that I might be stepping away from these points (sarcasm incoming) because I'm throwing my hand in the ring to be the new Director of the CIA. With my generous experience in housing and mortgage finance, I am more than qualified now that Pulte is the both NSA ANNNNNNND the FHFA. Soooo I'm throwing my hat into the ring. Although I feel like secretly leaking intel for my trading buddies would be very "on-brand" for this administration right???

So again AMD had a pretty strong day but I gotta say I don't like that volume candle. Volume dropped to a low and to me that shows speculation buying. Could be that speculators are pushing and buying the dips but traditionally volume has been tied to our share price. Lower volume, lower share price. So interesting to see if that trend is being broken here. I've started taking volume at repeatable intervals to conduct more volume analysis on an hourly chart to try to see if I can get a read on a light and heavy volume day and obviously anything is possible and can change on news but trying to use it for trading purposes to open LEAP positions or not. But all of that could be for naught if we are seeing a change here.

Divergence

Okay so two things here: Number one I'm heading to Italy and will be officially "out of the office" Thursday through Monday. So if Tex or someone else wants to take a stab at the daily posting that would be FANNNNNTASTIC. Alsoooooooooooo International travel when I'm isolated on a plane means a rally that I can't participate in too sooo good luck and enjoy the love.

So now Jensen is just knighting companies with Marvell???? I dunno about that but okay.

So looking at the chart the overall move appears to be waning. THIS STATEMENT DOES NOT MEAN THAT AMD WILL NOT GO UP! But the overall run seems to be losing its amplitude and we are seeing that divergence on our indicators. Our RSI is waning as is our MACD which both are lagging indicators. But when you overlay that with volume as well, it looks like a lot of money is piling in now who is late to the party when the smart money is already in.

Really hard for someone to take a new position in AMD at these levels currently. So yea I would just think about that if you are looking to buy, I would sit on your cash in a diversified ETF or something for the moment and keep your powder dry bc I think we are looking at the early stages of another consolidation period. Which could be a great thing for making money but also at the same time is going to burn these option traders too.

Noise day

Blehhhh Okay sooo Computex was underwhelming. Thought we were getting Zen6 after pre-show rumors and that didn't happen. AMD trotted out some older chip designs that are incredibly popular to probably an incredibly small audience of potential buyers and loyalists. It does help with the DRAM issues for PC games by allowing them to use older DDR4 RAM but probably will also age out quicker too. Blehhhhhh I dunno I feel like we've always been crushing it with our Ryzen rollouts and this year was just underwhelming.

Could be that all of our focus is elsewhere at the moment. Could be that its just an off year. But I don't feel like there was a lot of "new" there but instead a trotting out the greatest hits. I was looking for new music. But hey it is what i t is.

NVDA showed us all what their cash advantage means. They launched their PC CPU's into the space and immediately announced a series of partner agreements that I'm sure they were able to use their cash position and supply access to NVDA GPU's as a bargaining tool to immediately get OEM buy in that AMD has been trying to crack for years. Again don't think I'm immediately worried about this. CPU's are hard. But I do wonder if AMD is sort of delaying any new announcements bc they want to benchmark this. I think today is going to be a red open for us and INTC mainly bc it looks like NVDA is going to eat our lunch in the CPU space but I'm a believer and I think this is a LOT harder than people expect. Still not 100% convinced ARM is the way to go either. So we shall see.

Computex The Thunderdome Bitch

Here we go one of the biggest and most consequential Computex for AMD in a long long time. We are going to get Zen6 like 100% well maybe 99%. I think the new transfer speeds could be a solution to memory demand. I think some of the proposed transfer speeds are a 30% increase based on rumors that I've found which could go a long way to perhaps doing more with less memory??? I saw Lisa warning from this week where she said that HBM is now the limit for AI and not compute which is true for sure. Don't know that is necessarily a revelation or not but I just wonder how this is going to affect Helios deployment.

The good news is that might show she had a demand problem which is a GREAT GREAT problem to have. Saw a confirmation that Helios engineering samples are shipping still this year and full production in swing for next year. I have also seen some rumors that Helios is over subscribed for samples as well which shows the level of interest is crazy. I saw a comment on twitter that was just completely taken out of context and unsourced but interesting to say the least: Someone said that AMD is practically at full production right now with Helios to meet samples demand. So that could be both very very well for future sales AND also signal that there is very little ramp up needed for full production.

Lets ride this thing out!!!!!

Also SpaceX--------ehhhhhh I just don't know about the IPO. I keep worrying that Elon is going to merge SpaceX, Tesla, X.ai into all in one kinda thing. Starlink is the thing to own here. But you do have to start to wonder if its like buying a telecom utility that once they have fully destabilized the market what is the growth going to be there? There isn't a rollout issue with the infrastructure so much as the cost to deploy is crazy expensive. But its not like laying Fiber down where you have to pay for maintenance. I do also wonder about the inevitable space junk problem which doesn't seem to be getting better. Ehhhhh I dunno just unsure if I want to get on this hype train. Space seems kinda like a vanity thing for me at the moment and not a real like resource but hey thats me. I just don't see the vision perhaps which is totally cool