u/JWcommander217

NVDA is ripping and AMD is getting a little bit of lift from it. I don't know why NVDA and AMD seem to be inversely correlated at the moment whereas I would argue that both are set to benefit from the same tailwinds they are pumping. I'm not necessarily sure that one's victory means the other is out of favor. I definitely think that a lot of the growth we've seen in AMD is based on the ability of us to deploy finally a serious viable DC solution. Our initial Instinct versions just sucked plain and simple and now with our total rack solution we do have a lot more competitive products that fit. DC buildouts were happy to wait for NVDA chips but now with enhanced backlogs, why continue to wait when you can get a pretty powerful AMD solution as well???

AMD hit a new ATH as well on Friday and signaled a breakout again on the RSI. To me this chart is showing that it wants to move higher and the support we saw at the $600 level is indicative that there is broad market enthusiasm for a higher move in AMD. Sure the algos were taking profits but the smart money was buying the dip near $600. There is a lot of money to be made. Just looking at the prices here, it is hard to see on the chart bc of the broad move we have been on in the past year but the movement of $600-$645 is an almost 10% move in a week. If you aren't happy with a 10% return on your investment in a week then you and I are in different income brackets for sure. That is a huge win. So I think you need to zoom in a bit here and get dialed in on value. Create some tight stops.

Self Policing AI---------------good effing god this is hilarious. Maybe we should put the AI in charge of policing itself while we are at it. I mean hey the libertarian side of me loves the idea of self policing. Maybe we should do it with speed limits! And Red Lights. Don't need license plate readers/Flock bc criminals should self police their crimes. I was going to pay my taxes but honestly I should self police my tax returns and send the IRS whatever I feel is fair. Next time someone quits making their mortgage payments perhaps we can let them self-foreclose on themselves. Yayyyyyyyy...........................................fucking idiots.

So end of the quarter today and into the home stretch. AMD shed more yesterday but is still holding above that $600 level which is a key support level for us. I do think it is interesting as well that as AMD shareprice has risen, volume has collapsed. I've been looking back at volume levels and I think I personally need to re-evaluate a good day on my volume analysis. It used to be we avg 25 mil shares a day and perhaps a good day was 40mil. Now we are avg 16 and 25 is a good day. Just a side note.

Ignore the noise, the final sprint starts tomorrow.

Hey there sports fans!!!! The rally continues to march on. AMD showed some initial weakness at pre-market yesterday which had me expecting we would see some profit taking. And honestly we did. We saw some movement higher and then we started back down. I was eyeballing that gap that has formed below and was a little concerned that a gap fill was incoming before continuing upwards but it never happened. In fact the weakness on the chart mid day provided the dip that some entrants wanted to get back in to this thing.

VIX overall has collapsed as well as the market thinks things will be rosy into earnings season and I agree that companies are going to be showing effects of efficiencies and cuts. I am concerned about earnings for next year. I think cuts and accounting gimmicks only get you so far and what we need is broad sector growth which I don't think we've really had since post covid. It has felt like the economy is "contracting" regardless of what the numbers have said on the street and throw in some inflation worries there and you are looking at a bad runway.

But thats a problem for another time. I still think we are in early innings for AMD but we probably won't see the same strength we saw in the movement upwards on Monday. But I don't think we are done yet. I think we still have some room to run here but I wouldn't be trying to open a new position here. I did open a few PUT credit spreads on Monday that I closed yesterday for some cash. Nothing great but it did work for like $600. Costco's earnings are tomorrow and I'm eyeballing that as an economic bellwether. Remember their model is a little different in that most of their profit comes from membership fees but I do wonder about store traffic.

Random thing I know but here in Florida people go all out for decorating for Halloween (well at least in my neighborhood). Usually you go to the big box stores like Lowes and Home Depot and they have an entire isle of Halloween decorations and a sizeable floor display section as well. This year my local Lowes has about 1/3rd of an isle and the floor display has shrunk by about 75% as well. Obviously I know that Halloween is not as well participated in as Christmas but that Lowes has never had a problem selling out of everything. This year they ordered significantly less. My local Costco that always sells a lot of Halloween stuff as well has one thing and has already put up Christmas decorations which again is a much smaller display. To me this anecdotal story is just to show that people are starting to ration spending and the data is probably there that supports it. As these retailers report consumer weakness, it could be bumpy for the market as a whole for sure. Not sure if that is going to hit us at all but I do worry about the dreaded "Stagflation" fears killing our rally. So I would be thoughtfully securing some of your profits from this rally through potentially selling some calls or even trimming.

That gap below us is sticking out like a sore thumb and could be a good place to jump back in if needed in the future. Just my two cents but again you know that I'm more of a "take risk off" investor than a YOLO guy. So to each their own.

1 Trillion Dollars. Say that again. Can you even comprehend that? I dunno I always thought AMD would get there but gotta admit I didn't think it would happen yesterday. But wow. That in itself is an achievement. And honestly ------ here is something unique as well--------it usually is about this time that we have some self-induced-own-goal announcement here that we come out with to break up the momentum from the rally. Like we announce we are buying a company that no one has heard of for 10x what the street thinks its worth. These are the types of moments where you add more gasoline not douse the flames with water.

But it looks like they have learned to stop getting in their own way and just letting the market market. Meta is pushing Muse hard and we know that Meta is probably our biggest hyperscaler client that we have right now at this time. Muse seems more consumer friendly and aimed at the chatGPT crowd. It will probably be great with content creators bc the tools are embedded in Meta's existing products. But I also think it is interest that Meta is the only person out there with a real wearable AI assistant device. Now yes I also think these glasses are creepy as fuck too buttttttt at the end of the day it is an interesting sneak peek into the potential future where AI isn't taking peoples jobs. If anyone was going to talk about all the ways AI can be helpful, their approach really does make it appear additive. So right message at the right time will definitely turn some heads.

AMD ripped and as it got the coverage on CNBC they all seemed to be talking as it happened in real time that they weren't sure exactly why it was happening. Kinda makes you feel smart to be a part of this community that we have been talking about this moment for a bit now and as far as I know, none of us get paid millions of dollars to spout nonsense on TV.

Today is where you will sere some short term profit taking and hey that is okay!!!! We still have more catalyst on tap as we move into fall earnings and this rally could just be getting started

So for starters I wanted to thank you all for keeping me humble. I'm a bear and everyone tells me I'm an idiot and this thing is going up. I'm optimistic (borderline bullish) and everyone tells me I'm an idiot and its going to retreat. I swear some people just exist to humble me and honestly I do appreciate it a lot. I'm not joking. I think echo chambers are a bad thing ****See the DD thread****

And I always appreciate the discussion and even more so I appreciate it if you can show me the "why" behind it. So keep sharing your ideas for sure I love it!!!

This Press Release didn't get nearly enough attention and I think it is being heavily glossed over. For years one of the knocks against NVDA has been about how power hungry their chips were. And with the conversation of the Data Center build out centering more and more on limited power supply, I think this could be a time for AMD to shine. If Helios can literally deliver 30% more token efficiency per Watt then I think that is really really worth it to fuel investment by companies designing their new DC's. More bang for your buck and we all know that with the race to IPO from OpenAI and Anthropic, they are going to feel the pressure more than ever from the street and investors to show profit margins through efficiency of resources.

AMD continued to break above the trendline and yes today it looks like we are initially looking at a selloff but I would put a lot of that on the VIX. Also I think its officially time for the Trump administration to put grandpa to bed. I don't know how people think that the solution to inflation is giving $5k to every American. Like do people fundamentally understand this shit???? I think there is a strong chance we might get a rate raise and I think seeing the debate earlier on CNBC that rates will go down with that. It got me thinking and I think I'm in the camp that if they raise rates next week that bonds will go down and the market will rally. It sounds counter-intuitive but I do think it could signal to the market that there is an adult in the room and Warsh might be the only intelligent person in policy making at this moment. But hey thats something.

I think people that are screaming the AI trade is winding down are wrong. I don't think it is. I think it is running into the buzzsaw of infrastructure build out. But I will say that I think its hard to make investments with the big scary specter of inflation hanging over everyone's heads. Cash is king and you don't want to spend all your cash as we go into a high-inflationary environment. I think if we can get into a place where Warsh finally launches a war on inflation and this fucking administration stops tripping over its own dick, I think we still have 4 or 5 innings to go in this thing. Not to mention-----if we get into the power savings argument and can ship enough product, I think you will start to see DC migration/refreshes to more efficient systems as training slows down.

So yea thats my thesis-----------Tell me why I'm wrong :)

Running late will add more

-------Soooooo who followed me yesterday with my prediction????

Who doesn't love getting the trading days news before it starts????

Hey just let me take my victory lap bc it doesn't come around often. But I think the seasonality trade that I have been prepping for almost 4 months now is kicking into gear. Today We are looking to break above $518 and after that $530. We have broken that flag pattern and the negative channel we have been in since Augus is finally broken. Things could get spicy

AMD is holding the line here. Which is nice to see. We are making a last stand at this $452 range and there is clearly some price support here as we have bought back up every dip. The market is looking for a deal and I think the fact that someone is clearly buying any dip here is indicative of a belief that this goes higher. I don't think we are the only ones with a seasonality argument here.

Biggest news is NVDA has embraced one of the kings of the "open source model" to the tune of BILLIONS$$$$$$ I think if anything this validates Lisa's strategy of going open source from Day 1. I also think it could perhaps push some of the CUDA software in that direction as well. I have heard that a lot of CUDA connectors that are open source have been fine tuned now for a while and do a pretty good job of applying your settings regardless of the hardware. I'm unsure if the moat is as big of a driver as we move away from some of the training and into trying to be cost effective for compute.

Also seeing Waller be the Dove and the new Fed chair be the Bear---------I am in the full blown twilight zone here. Up is down. Black is White. So who the fuck knows what is going on lol

So I said yesterday that $450 level was our first test and yesterday it held just barely before recovering. AMD is still signaling weakness at the open today and we are going to get another test for sure. Interesting however that we finally saw some life breathe into volume yesterday and I wonder if some people were playing that key level.

For AMD to end the day relatively flat from the open I think is a win honestly. Especially when you see the 10 yr hitting a 12 month high. Bessent comments were pretty much not helpful at all yesterday. He said, it will get better. Well no fucking DUHHHHHH. Because the stagflation picture can really only get better. I guess it could also get worse with hyper inflation so I don't want to say that. But like whats the ACTUAL PLAN>>>>>>> Venezuela giving us oil leases that are going to take 25 years to develop???

Anyone remember when Trump completely fucked Chevron??? Chevron has been given permission to develop oil leases with Venezuela and then Trump made it illegal and Chevron has like a $2Bil write off in equipment, materials, and investments. (Those aren't specific figures just generalizations for those of you who like to hold me to account lol). If I'm an oil company sure it seems like a black gold rush but at the same time, I have ZEROOOOOO confidence that I'm going to pour money into a country/region that doesn't seem solid other than the fact that the only missiles being fired seem to be only coming from us. This would have been a GREAT DEAL, if Iran wasn't going on. But at the moment its more of a "mehhhhh will be cool 10 yrs from now bro."

The one thing I'm shocked that I haven't seen with the DC conversation is nuclear. Now I had taken some uranium bets as some of you may remember bc I felt like the DC power supply solution could only be Nuclear at this time. Sure they can use Solar and Wind to supplement as well with Battery storage but with peak demand and networked systems, you gotta have the redundancy of nuclear.

I've been using this little Website to track nuclear power plant projects. Here is the thing that I keep looking at----look at decommissioned plans vs new plants coming on-line. We haven't even replaced the amount of decommissioned plants over the years. A could portion of Nuclear plants aren't going to come on-line until 2030-2031. Especially need to focus on the small-scale modular reactors. Why are we not seeing like 50+ of these being announced in every single state? Its allll about the power baby!

10 Yr and NVDA--------thats this whole market. Maybe a little oil too. But ooooooof the 10 yr is screaming red. NVDA is spending more cash today to help its customers secure compute. I really don't know how much longer this can be a viable strategy honestly. Like $35 Bil for one deal for one customer. Its like the chip companies are the things keeping the AI companies afloat. Shouldn't the broader market be able to do that on its own bc they have been able to monetize the tech?

I generally don't love Chamath Palihapitiya but I did see him talk about AI compute like a commodity and I thought it was great. Right now Anthropic is one of the most EXPENSIVE barrels of compute out there. And I love Claude I really do. But I'm not sure that is going to be the thing that is lasting. So making investments in them is ehhhhh kinda iffy. I think AMD has been a little bit more judicial with some of its investments which I think is solid. Investing in a company like Meta that has alternative revenue streams might allow Zuck and co to just outlast the competition and buy the remnants later on.

AMD is still hanging around but with the 10 yr spike I think we might see some weakness forming up at the open. $450 is the key level to watch today. As long as we can hold that we aren't completely fucked but if we break below that then that is where we start the $424/$425ish watch for support. I kinda just want it to happen already and shake out the bears so we can be prepped for Helios launch.

What do we think of new APPL CEO???? Do you think he opens the door to more partnerships?

Okay sports fans!!!! Another football season is on us. Word out of my Commanders camp is that we are going to suck a big ole donkey dick. Which means all is right in the world. Probably good news for my investments. Fate never lets me win at everything so I'm thinking career troubles + horrible Commanders = a great investment return.

Sadly one of the things that I think that is going to be a casualty of this new career shuffle is the traveling. Which means you might be stuck with me and lose access to your random AMD Pops! So sorry for that!

AMD is starting to break away here and I think this is where is the market starts to get ugly. The self inflicted wounds on this economy are starting to show. Fresh attacks on Iran, trade war with Canada, and Warsh pretty much saying get ready for a rate raise are all putting pressure on this market. Is Israel still engaging with Iran??? Kinda feels like they convinced us we had to do this bombing thing with them and they have left us in the lurch bc even they know this is insanity.

I think the market can only prop itself up for so long and we are gearing up for a significant drawdown. I'm thinking that will be next year and my AMD timeline for a rally still holds from a seasonality standpoint. But I am starting to revise my amplitude ideas. I'm no longer sure we put in a new ATH at $600+ bc we are going to be fighting the market overall. That NVDA selloff on Friday was ugly and you would think they would have shown some resiliency.

I think value is the play here. I think we need to continue to buy at really attractive valuations and sell quickly when you get your pops. AMD is attractive to me below $450 and I would be very interested in seeing if that $425-$430 range holds. If it does then we are in business and I would be buying with some size for a fall rally and be prepared to sell north of $525. But if it fails then I think my fall rally might not materialize this year the way we hope and that is where entry becomes the most important thing.

Sooooo really interesting report from NVDA. Did it blow the doors off the room??? Looks like it on the surface. Demand is there. Demand is growing. The AI DC buildout continues to grow and that is with $0 China dollars as well. Sooooo bully for us.............In fact it looks like demand has now outpaced money.

We finally saw one of the very first signs of the Bank of Jensen. FCF dropped like what 70% in ONE QUARTER????? That should scream concerns in any other market. But it shows that people are so desperate for NVDA product that they are begging for anything they can get their hands on. Even when they don't have the money to buy the product. Now NVDA is pushing payment terms back which sounds great in theory. Shows demand. Buttttttttttt I just wonder.

I said yesterday that cash is kind in a stagflationary environment and I really do believe that. NVDA is shipping product to companies that don't have the chance to pay yet. And accepting future payment. Which is fine when you are drowning in cash and that is a pretty basic setup for most businesses. But we aren't talking about cars. We aren't talking about clothes or coke or anything else that sits on the shelves. We are talking about a brand new technology that has demonstrated a lot of "good things" but the economic value has still not yet been defined.

I just wonder how many of these companies that "owe NVDA" will be around in the future to pay them. And will NVDA ever collect that cash owed or will they have massive writeoffs in the future? Its a problem for another day apparently but I just wonder. We all know that the economics of AI don't match the current value. Sure they match the potential value but that still hasn't been realized yet.

So on the surface this is a win. Lisa only reports shipped product and really only reports paid product as well. I wonder if she is going to take a similar approach. NVDA has been generating the most FCF out of any company in the world the past 2 years so who cares right??? I'm not sure everyone else can replicate this and maybe that is the power of being the king right? But oooooof.

AMD tried to break above that dreaded 50day EMA and retreated back. That thing is the bane of our existence.

Welllllp Remember that money I made from selling calls against my longer term calls???? Thats pretty much all gone now. So even when you get it right, you don't get it all right. I was hoping that i could rinse and repeat but I think it looks like its going to head lower this week overall and that is going to be problematic. But hey it is what it is.

You can see that AMD clearly broke the downtrend and we have been putting in lower highs. So I think we are in for some rough sledding a big here so I'm going to just sit to the side here and wait.

Looking at something else that is interesting: INTC. Yes I am the biggest INTC bear out there and I usually just roll my eyes whenever someone talks about it being value and blah blah blah. I still am not a believer. Buttttttttttttt it is like 10% away from the 200 day EMA and that lines up with the top of that gap trade as well. Canada trade deal blowing up is just part for the course of what I said about getting some good news that unravels and turns out to be a lie over the weekend. Soooooo thats the trade right now.

INTC is interesting I gotta say. I don't want to buy it. Owning it is like anathema to me but should I?????

MU is still in its little uptrend Flag so I don't think that is going to take down semi's anytime soon. I think it has shook out a lot of the bears with its price move too.

Sometimes I just have to write down on a piece of paper and tape to my wall: Some days the best trade is to do nothing!

Welllllll now. Yesterday was sort of interesting that volume went completely away which wasn't what I was looking for. I was kinda hoping we would get volume that would confirm the move either way. Volume is usually a confirmation of the move or helps accelerate a rush to a bottom. Without it, we kinda are just left with the selloff from two days ago and wondering where that left us from a consultation standpoint.

Today is OPEX so lets get ready for a wild ride as well which kinda makes all my "finding structure" argument moot. Its gonna be a wild day just because of OPEX only and we will have to wait again for Monday to try to get any sort of understanding on where the market might be headed. Monday's have been a wild ride as well because usually we get some trickle of decent news coming out towards the end of the day on Friday that then completely unravels over the weekend for an unknown opening on Monday.

Like: "Deal with Iran reached" and then you find out that there is no deal and it doesn't hold up under scrutiny throughout the weeke.d Sooooo yea just really hard to get a handle on the market at this time.

I do have about $10k randomly to play with. Anyone have some good value plays on their list that are worth taking a look at?

wellllllp that was short lived. I was hoping the Treasury announcement might help keep yields down enough for us to break higher but it appears that only is a stop-gap measure that the bond market is erasing today. "Trump putting pressure on the Fed chair to force them to lower rates"-----haven't we seen this movie before??? How did the last one end???

We officially broke lower out of our wedge pattern so that thing is donezo and there is no support. I'm targeting our next near time support leg at $454/$450. Once we go below that, it can get really really spicy for sure. I think we still are really bullish here at the moment and my seasonality argument is still holding for now.

I would be a buyer of shares with a DCA strategy between $450-$400 which is a WIDE WIDE margin so everyone needs to find something that works well for them. I don't think we will get as low as the 200 day EMA unless there is a total market implosion but I honestly feel like the Status Quo is going to hold for now.

The hate on this rally continues and I think the market definitely wants a pullback that hasn't come yet. You are seeing a lot of protection being bought with puts on a lot of positions and I think these places probably HAVE to buy puts to cover their shares that they have lent out to be sold short. I saw someone on some stupid tik tok saying that hedge funds have a $12 billion short against the AI trade which means its finally about to end but frankly--------even if that number is correct----------I think the AI bubble trade is at least $100 billion. So a 10%ish short is really just the market being the market and hedging. Not exactly a bet the market is going to go down.

I will say the good thing about having a President breaking the law and actively trading stocks in this market is that he is very attune to the market overall. The Treasury doubling its buy backs of debt is going to be good for some of the debt for sure. It would help if we weren't just re-issuing that debt again but alas whatever. Will save us some interest by converting to lower rates but not nearly enough IMO. We need revenue. Economy is stalling. A lot of "socialist" won last night in election day and again I'm a capitalist at heart. People are flirting with socialism bc capitalism in this country is clearly broken.

My wife's hospital company keeps building these stand alone ER's in low income areas all over Central florida and she has to work in them and it is ROUGGGGGH. Federal law says that an ER can't refuse service and the truth is that ER's in affluent areas don't make money bc they have to treat whoever comes through the door but the insurance companies decide not to pay for the services bc people should be going to a Primary care doctor instead. Well the ER doesn't get to make that call. They have to treat you. But Medicaid always pays. Her CEO can argue that "everyone deserves access to health care" but its such a naked cash grab its not even funny. They can barely staff what they have and they are building more and more. We need universal health care for PCPs where people stop going to the ER for stupid shit. That alone would save us a fortune. We need revenue. Need money. Need to stop running deficits. Thats what is pushing rates up. People aren't buying the debt bc they are tapped out. Whatever rant over.

AMD is right back on that 50 day EMA. Remember with my chart my VWAP indicator determines the color so you can ignore the red color bc that just indicates that we gapped down below my VWAP which welllll yea you know. (Interesting idea that I want you guys to know I literally just came up with my ADHD brain-----Use ChatGPT to write thinkscript code for AI powered charting tools) Interesting thought there.

I closed my shorts yesterday and I think I'm going to just rinse and repeat on around that $500 level on my calls. If we go lower I might even add to my long position and see if I can't rotate our my December calls a little further and buy some more time premium with some shorts.

Wellllllll now. So Friday I said i was going to take a bet bc I felt that AMD was set for some constructive movement out of this wedge. I wanted for the open to calm down and took a small 3 option position. Nothing crazy. But so far sooooo good. We are getting the breakout I was hoping for.

The key level for me for us to get above was $500 now that it had broken free of that 50 day EMA and we got that and then some. MACD has given us a bullish cross which could be opening a new rally after a consolidation period and our RSI is still in a neutral zone which could signal anything from here.

So now the question comes down to-----do I trim a little today or let it ride????

Soooo again the fail of AMD at the 50 day EMA left me looking for some advice. I did the thing that I never thought I would do-----I uploaded my chart into ChatGPT:

My read right now

I'd characterize AMD as:

🟡 Neutral → potentially bullish

Not bullish yet.

I'd want to see:

$486 reclaim → $500 breakout → $518 breakout

That's the progression I'd watch.

If AMD gets above $500 and holds, I'd become substantially more interested in the bullish case.

If it gets above $518, the pattern becomes much more convincing because you've then broken the prior swing high and established a genuine higher-high.

And $535–542 becomes the next obvious target zone.

The really attractive risk/reward would potentially be a breakout around $500, with the pattern invalidation down around $457, and a first target around $518, followed by ~$540.

So yes: I think you're seeing a legitimate potential bottoming pattern here — but the chart hasn't confirmed it yet. $500 is the line I'd be staring at.

Sooooo interesting. Hmmmmm that it is pretty interesting what the machine said and gotta say I feel a little validated for me. Really interesting thoughts that I've been digging through and thinking about it as inspiration:

-RSI is literally flatlining at the midpoint. It is perfectly neutral neither yay or nay which sets us up for perhaps something interesting

-MACD looks like it finally might be attempting to cross positive. This is a confirmation signal and not a predictive one but I do think it could be confirming that the consolidation might be coming to an end here.

-AMD rejected hard off of that $424 level at the end of July and since then we've had an ascending triangle pattern with higher lows being put in over the past 2 trading weeks. I gotta say with all the action we've been seeing at the 50 day EMA would could be coming to a breakout inflection point or breakdown here. If we breakout then the seasonality rally could be on.

I'm going to add a few calls today after the morning burst wears off. Futures are mixed and the mehhhhhh action could lower option prices around noonish. This is a pure gamble type play and I do not advise people to follow me with size. I might try to do a spread to make it neutral but cap my upside.

Goooood lord anyone else feel like this 50 day EMA is becoming the death mark???? We are tied right to this thing like a homing missile. We are stuck as long as we stay tethered to this level. Oil------Missiles--------Inflation-----------all of it is just stagnation.

The market wants to gallop higher but it just can't because all of these policies just equal BAD.

So where are we until then??? again I want to fall lower to get the full reset and entry that I want.

What about a different chart here???? Lets take a look at NVDA.

NVDA is the opposite of AMD right now heading into earnings. It has perked up after being mostly stagnate for the entire year. But I love that this move came off of the 200 day EMA. Now this is a lot easier bc NVDA has been flat for months now and that 50 day and 200 day EMA have moved a lot closer. But for me that is exactly the area of strength you want to see movement off of going into earnings for a sustained breakout to a new high on the back of earnings.

Never underestimate Jensens ability to tell a fairy tale. Also I feel like his debt raise announcement kinda feels very self serving......Its like he's helping people raise debt so they can buy his product and stick them with the bill. Very predatory but could be a signal of peak mania.

Okay back into the swing of things after a crazy morning yesterday. Lets seeeeeee where are we???

Yep same dogshit chart that is flashing a warning sign at the moment. We need to crash allllll the way down to a bottoming event for our RSI or we need to firmly break out above the 50 day EMA. I think we have a stalled here which is okay but for me I want to buy but want to pick it up cheaper.

I think my seasonality argument and Helios deployment thesis still holds at this moment but for me it all depends on buying in at the right price point and this just aint it. The 50 day EMA is clearly a resistance point on our chart and the fact that AMD is having difficulty maintaining above it should tell you everything you need to know about the market selling any strength they are seeing in AMD.

I'm in the same boat and I'm not a buyer until we head lower or firmly breakout above that $520ish level and hold it