The hate on this rally continues and I think the market definitely wants a pullback that hasn't come yet. You are seeing a lot of protection being bought with puts on a lot of positions and I think these places probably HAVE to buy puts to cover their shares that they have lent out to be sold short. I saw someone on some stupid tik tok saying that hedge funds have a $12 billion short against the AI trade which means its finally about to end but frankly--------even if that number is correct----------I think the AI bubble trade is at least $100 billion. So a 10%ish short is really just the market being the market and hedging. Not exactly a bet the market is going to go down.

I will say the good thing about having a President breaking the law and actively trading stocks in this market is that he is very attune to the market overall. The Treasury doubling its buy backs of debt is going to be good for some of the debt for sure. It would help if we weren't just re-issuing that debt again but alas whatever. Will save us some interest by converting to lower rates but not nearly enough IMO. We need revenue. Economy is stalling. A lot of "socialist" won last night in election day and again I'm a capitalist at heart. People are flirting with socialism bc capitalism in this country is clearly broken.

My wife's hospital company keeps building these stand alone ER's in low income areas all over Central florida and she has to work in them and it is ROUGGGGGH. Federal law says that an ER can't refuse service and the truth is that ER's in affluent areas don't make money bc they have to treat whoever comes through the door but the insurance companies decide not to pay for the services bc people should be going to a Primary care doctor instead. Well the ER doesn't get to make that call. They have to treat you. But Medicaid always pays. Her CEO can argue that "everyone deserves access to health care" but its such a naked cash grab its not even funny. They can barely staff what they have and they are building more and more. We need universal health care for PCPs where people stop going to the ER for stupid shit. That alone would save us a fortune. We need revenue. Need money. Need to stop running deficits. Thats what is pushing rates up. People aren't buying the debt bc they are tapped out. Whatever rant over.

AMD is right back on that 50 day EMA. Remember with my chart my VWAP indicator determines the color so you can ignore the red color bc that just indicates that we gapped down below my VWAP which welllll yea you know. (Interesting idea that I want you guys to know I literally just came up with my ADHD brain-----Use ChatGPT to write thinkscript code for AI powered charting tools) Interesting thought there.

I closed my shorts yesterday and I think I'm going to just rinse and repeat on around that $500 level on my calls. If we go lower I might even add to my long position and see if I can't rotate our my December calls a little further and buy some more time premium with some shorts.

Meta has published a fascinating deep dive into KernelEvolve, its agentic system for automatically generating, optimizing and validating production GPU kernels across NVIDIA, AMD and Meta's own MTIA accelerators:

https://engineering.fb.com/2026/04/02/developer-tools/kernelevolve-how-metas-ranking-engineer-agent-optimizes-ai-infrastructure/

I think the implications for AMD, and particularly for CUDA's long-term moat, are easy to underestimate.

A few highlights:

• KernelEvolve turns kernel optimization from a weeks-long expert engineering task into hours of automated search and evaluation.
• It generates code for NVIDIA GPUs, AMD GPUs, MTIA and CPUs from the same framework.
• It can target high-level DSLs such as Triton as well as low-level CUDA, HIP and MTIA C++.
• Every candidate is automatically compiled, tested for numerical correctness, benchmarked, profiled and fed back into the agent for another optimization round.
• Meta reports 100% correctness across 160 PyTorch ATen operators on three hardware platforms (480 configurations) and a 100% pass rate on all 250 KernelBench problems.
• This isn't just research: Meta says KernelEvolve is already optimizing production code serving trillions of inference requests per day.
• It delivered 60%+ inference throughput improvement on an NVIDIA production model and 25%+ training throughput improvement on MTIA.
• Perhaps most importantly, Meta says the system can optimize for hardware that wasn't even represented in the LLM's training data. Give the agent the architecture documentation, ISA, memory hierarchy and optimization rules, and it can learn to generate optimized kernels for the new accelerator.

That last point looks particularly important for AMD.

Historically, CUDA's moat wasn't simply "developers know CUDA." It was two decades of hand-written kernels, optimization knowledge, debugging, validation and tooling that made supporting another accelerator expensive and slow.

KernelEvolve attacks that engineering cost directly.

And there's an even more interesting data point in the paper: Meta now has more than 8,000 Triton kernels, surpassing its stagnant legacy CUDA kernel codebase.

So perhaps the biggest threat to CUDA isn't that AI agents will convert millions of lines of CUDA into ROCm.

It may be that increasingly new performance-critical code doesn't need to be written specifically for CUDA in the first place.

The emerging workflow could look more like:

Model/operator → high-level specification → agent → hardware-specific optimized kernel → automated correctness validation → production

with the agent generating the appropriate implementation for NVIDIA, AMD, MTIA or whatever accelerator comes next.

This also connects very nicely with AMD's recent strategy: ROCm becoming more mature, Meta's custom MI450-class AMD GPU, heterogeneous compute, and AMD's repeated argument that there is no "one-size-fits-all" solution in silicon.

CUDA obviously isn't going away. NVIDIA can use exactly the same agentic techniques and still has an enormous software ecosystem.

But if AI can compress weeks of hardware-specific expert work into hours, one of CUDA's greatest historical advantages — the sheer amount of engineering time already invested in it — may depreciate much faster than expected.

For AMD, the bar may therefore no longer be "make ROCm as mature as CUDA after 20 years."

It may simply become:

make AMD hardware sufficiently documented and accessible that autonomous optimization systems can do the rest.

Wellllllll now. So Friday I said i was going to take a bet bc I felt that AMD was set for some constructive movement out of this wedge. I wanted for the open to calm down and took a small 3 option position. Nothing crazy. But so far sooooo good. We are getting the breakout I was hoping for.

The key level for me for us to get above was $500 now that it had broken free of that 50 day EMA and we got that and then some. MACD has given us a bullish cross which could be opening a new rally after a consolidation period and our RSI is still in a neutral zone which could signal anything from here.

So now the question comes down to-----do I trim a little today or let it ride????

Even though I am not the shareholder of AMD, I think its worth pointing out that we might see AMD moving towards neocloud business just like NVDA did with NBIS and CoreWeave. I uploaded my DD here, but I'm not sure if I'm allowed to post it here (mods let me know)

Here are the relevant extracts regarding AMD:

The timing on AMD's bond sale

August 13, 2026 -Filing under Securities Act Rules 163/433 of free writing prospectuses

• Issuer: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
• Trade Date: August 13, 2026
• Settlement Date: August 17, 2026 (T+2)

>$1,250,000,000 4.600% Senior Notes Due 2029

>$1,500,000,000 5.000% Senior Notes Due 2031

>$1,000,000,000 5.250% Senior Notes Due 2033

>$1,000,000,000 5.500% Senior Notes Due 2036

Here's the part I find genuinely worth paying attention to, and I want to be careful not to overstate it.

On August 13, AMD priced its largest bond offering ever — $4.75 billion across four tranches, pricing tighter than initial guidance on strong demand. To be direct about what the filing actually says: AMD describes the proceeds as going toward general corporate purposes, including refinancing $875 million of debt maturing next month. It does not mention TensorWave, Fermi, or any guarantee. I looked for that language and it isn't there.

What I do think is worth noting is the settlement date. These bonds settle T+2, which lands on Monday, August 17 — inside the window before Fermi's own September 30 deadline. Whether or not this specific raise is earmarked for the guarantee, AMD is clearly building fresh balance sheet flexibility in the same week this decision has to get made. If they are going to step in as guarantor, waiting until the cash actually clears before announcing a new contingent obligation of this size would be the more conventional way to sequence it. So I read Monday or Tuesday as a plausible window, not a certainty.

Schneider, AMD Launch Helios AI Factory Design

There's also a second data point from the same day that I think fits into this picture, even though it isn't about Fermi at all. On August 13, Schneider Electric and AMD jointly announced a validated reference design for AMD's Helios rackscale platform — essentially a pre-engineered blueprint for how power, cooling, and compute should be built together at data center scale, supporting AI clusters up to 10.4 megawatts and individual racks up to 246 kilowatts. On its own this is a normal infrastructure-partnership announcement, but I think it's a useful signal about where AMD's priorities are right now: they're not just selling chips anymore, they're actively packaging the power and cooling design work that a customer needs to actually stand up gigawatt-scale AI capacity. That's the same posture Nvidia has taken with its neocloud partners — showing up earlier in the stack, closer to the physical infrastructure layer, not just the silicon. Read alongside the TensorWave guarantor language and the bond raise, it fits a pattern of AMD positioning itself to be more directly involved in how its AI customers actually get built and powered, rather than just shipping GPUs and leaving infrastructure to someone else. This supports the thesis of "AMD is moving toward the neocloud-style playbook"

The TensorWave deal

On August 11, Fermi announced a 15-year lease with TensorWave, an AI cloud provider that runs exclusively on AMD hardware. The terms: 222 megawatts signed in the first phase, with expansion rights up to 650 megawatts across three phases, roughly $6.5 billion in contracted revenue over the term, and delivery starting in the second half of 2027.

The interesting part is that Fermi disclosed the lease is expected to be guaranteed by "one of the global leaders in AI," without naming who. The market has landed on AMD as the likely candidate, and there's a real reason for that: AMD Ventures has invested in TensorWave twice, first in its Series A and then leading its $350 million Series B at a $1.55 billion valuation. TensorWave's entire fleet is AMD Instinct GPUs. This isn't just speculation on my part — financial media picked up on the same connection within days of the announcement.

Anyways since we expect bonds to settle on Monday, we might see a major announcement following the settlement date.

Screenshot from private SemiAnalysis report:

AVGO TPU Downward Revision
We are seeing lower TPU output in 2H26 than previous expectations. 2026 CoWos output for TPU v7x (Ironwood) is reduced by ~32k, reducing 2026 unit production by ~500k from 3.2mn to 2.7mn. TPU v8i (Sunfish) is also reduced by 5k wafers, reducing 2026 unit production by -80k. Ironwood upstream output now peaks in 2026 with a slight decline in run-rate in 2H, versus our prior forecast of a continued ramp from 2Q26 onwards. We believe this reduction is supply related and due to challenges ramping CoWoS-S. This brings total Broadcom 2026 CoWos output to 215k wafers from 250k previously.

For 2027, we also see lower TPU output than our previous expectation of 6mn units of TPU 7 and TPUi. This is driven by greater allocation towards other customers, with total Broadcom CoWos at ~460k wafers. Most notably there are 55k wafers (which is equivalent to 830k units TPU 8i Sunfish) allocated to MTIA 400 Iris in 2027. However, this remains in flux as Meta is known for abandoning orders, as we saw in May, where Meta agreed to cut its own Broadcom production allocation to support greater TPU supply for Google in exchange for access to TPU compute.
This could play out again and, if Meta abandons its allocation, this could be taken up by TPU. We also see slightly more allocation for OAI Jalapeno's ASIC. We will provide a more detailed model update soon.

AMD TPU Involvement
Market chatter suggests Google is working with AMD on a TPU project in the v10 generation. AMD's involvement would be the first real involvement in a custom Al ASIC project, despite having a custom silicon team. AMD has strong IP especially in advanced packaging and SolC. Additionally, CPU IP could also be a draw given Google and its customers are pushing for TPUS with on-packade CPU cores for RI workloads.