Konnor Griffin Should Hit Leadoff
I am launching this campaign to urge Don Kelly to put Konnor Griffin in the leadoff position each game. Here are my arguments:
- KG is our most valuable batting asset given his pedigree, draft position, and contract. The team should be maximizing his number of at-bats in order to capitalize on this and continue his development at the plate. Over the course of the season, batting 1st compared to 6th means 80-100 additional at-bats.
- KG is our best baserunner. Don Kelly seems to value this, as he has been using Oneil Cruz as the leadoff for much of the season. Oneil Cruz is also a good baserunner, however advanced baserunning metrics that I don't fully understand say that KG is slightly better here. It is generally an important bonus to have a + baserunner hitting leadoff, as Spencer Horwitz or Marcell Ozuna's fat asses will not be running the bases in front of them slowing them down.
-KG gets on base. KGs season stats are still heavily weighted by his slow start in the majors when he was 19. Since turning 20, this has been a different story. Lets compare the splits between KG and Cruz more recently. In general, KG gets on base at a better clip than Cruz.
| OBP | Last 7 Days | Last 14 Days | Last 28 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz | .321 | .386 | .303 |
| Konnor Griffin | .462 | .340 | .381 |
- KG hits better when he is lower down in the lineup. Using the power of linear regression, I am going to demonstrate the future. Lets look at his OPS by position in the lineup so far this season:
2nd: 0.885
5th: 1.000
6th: 0.755
7th: 0.657
8th: 0.738
Here is a visual representation of this data:
This shows a clear trend. As Konnor from the end of the lineup on the lefthand side to the beginning of the lineup on the right hand side, his OPS improves. Using linear regression we get a trendline equation:
OPS = -0.0637(draft position)+1.0618
This allows us to predict with 100% accuracy that, if Konnor were to hit leadoff, he would have an OPS of -0.0637(1)+1.0618 = 0.998 which would make him the third best hitter in baseball, taking the #3 spot from Kyle Schwarber at 0.981. This is how math works.
- Oneil Cruz has a lot of power and its better to put people who slug after people who get on base in the lineup. Generally speaking, if Oneil were to hit after people like Nick Gonzalez and Spencer Horowitz instead of people like Henry Davis and Jared Triolo, it would generate more runs. This is because the first two get on base and the second two don't. So when Oneil Cruz hits homeruns, we would get 3 runs instead of just 1.
Thank you for reading. I look forward to platforming this position until Don Kelly does the right thing.