![[OC] With new strikers arriving, who should stay? João Pedro looks untouchable, but what about Nicolas Jackson and Liam Delap? I compared them with public available data. Will Guiu be sold and Emegha will take his spot?](https://preview.redd.it/73tzcxfgbd2h1.png?width=140&height=75&auto=webp&s=82988611a6d01214be1f62c2c4ad6c687f7346ed)
[OC] With new strikers arriving, who should stay? João Pedro looks untouchable, but what about Nicolas Jackson and Liam Delap? I compared them with public available data. Will Guiu be sold and Emegha will take his spot?
I was bored and did not know how to kill some time, so here we go lol
I am a little bit worried about the striker/forward depth. We currently have Liam Delap, Nicolas Jackson, Emmanuel Emegha, Marc Guiu and João Pedro.
I used FBref style match logs and Python/Jupyter Notebook to analyse the data. There are missing metrics, especially around injuries and availability. FBref has become horrible since the beginning of the year, so I had to take data from other sources such as FotMob and so on.
Maybe it is not a completely fair comparison, as Delap had injury interruptions:
| Season | Injury | From | Until | Days | Games missed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/26 | Ill | 13/01/2026 | 16/01/2026 | 4 days | 1 |
| 25/26 | Shoulder injury | 06/12/2025 | 25/12/2025 | 20 days | 4 |
| 25/26 | Hamstring injury | 31/08/2025 | 28/10/2025 | 59 days | 10 |
But I was curious and compared our strikers for the next season anyway.
| Metric | João Pedro | Liam Delap | Nicolas Jackson |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 3969 | 1680 | 1323 |
| Goals | 23 | 2 | 11 |
| Assists | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| G+A | 29 | 5 | 14 |
| Goals/90 | 0.522 | 0.107 | 0.748 |
| Assists/90 | 0.136 | 0.161 | 0.204 |
| G+A/90 | 0.658 | 0.268 | 0.952 |
| Shots/90 | 2.358 | 2.839 | 3.810 |
| SoT/90 | 0.930 | 0.911 | 2.177 |
| Conversion % | 22.1% | 3.8% | 19.6% |
| Minutes per G+A | 136.9 | 336.0 | 94.5 |
The big point: Jackson produces actual end product.
Delap takes shots and has more total minutes, but the output is not close. But I think we all know this lol.
So the backup does not only need to be a big body. The squad needs someone who can do at least one of these two things:
A) replace João Pedro’s output when he rests
\B) offer a different tactical profile without killing the attack
And that is where Jackson beats Delap.
Why Delap’s case is difficult
The issue with Delap is end product. He offers rotation value and gets shots off, but the final output is not close enough to João Pedro or Jackson.
| Area | Evidence | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Goalscoring output | 0.107 goals/90 | Very low for a João Pedro backup. |
| Overall output | 0.268 G+A/90 | Too far below João Pedro’s 0.658 and Jackson’s 0.952. |
| Finishing | 3.8% conversion | The biggest red flag in his profile. |
| Efficiency | 840 minutes per goal | Extremely weak compared with Jackson’s 120.3 minutes per goal. |
| Bench impact | 0.173 G+A/90 as substitute | Despite many sub appearances, the impact is limited. |
| Starter alternative | 0.310 G+A/90 as starter | Not convincing enough as a João Pedro replacement in the XI. |
| Discipline | 2.143 fouls/90, 0.482 cards/90 | More combative, but also more likely to give away fouls/cards. |
The caveats with Nicolas Jackson:
| Area | Evidence | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Smaller sample / not enough data | 1323 minutes | Less secure sample than João Pedro and Delap. |
| Lower fouls won | 0.891 fouls won/90 | Does not replicate João Pedro’s ability to win fouls. |
| Higher offsides | 0.980 offsides/90 | More likely to mistime runs or play on the shoulder aggressively. |
| Discipline risk | 0.624 cards/90 | Highest cards rate in the comparison. |
| Availability/context | Bundesliga break / AFCON period | His monthly trend needs context and should not be read as a simple form drop. |
Why João Pedro needs a reliable backup:
| Area | Evidence | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Heavy workload | 3969 minutes | The squad needs rotation cover. |
| Starter dependency | 45 starts | Too many starts increase the risk of fatigue or injuries. |
| Need for rest | 67.3 minutes per appearance | A backup needs to protect his minutes. |
That is a big gap compared with João Pedro and Jackson
| Metric | Delap | Jackson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals/90 | 0.107 | 0.748 |
| G+A/90 | 0.268 | 0.952 |
| Conversion | 3.8% | 19.6% |
| Minutes per goal | 840.0 | 120.3 |
To keep this simple, I used João Pedro as the benchmark. Keep in mind he played nearly 4000 minutes, which is around three times more than Jackson. The question is not who is the better player overall, but who profiles better as his backup for rotation, rest and attacking output.
| Player | Goals/90 | Assists/90 | G+A/90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro | 0.522 | 0.136 | 0.658 |
| Liam Delap | 0.107 | 0.161 | 0.268 |
| Nicolas Jackson | 0.748 | 0.204 | 0.952 |
Now we come to the shooting and threat data:
| Player | Shots | SoT | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Shot Accuracy % | Conversion % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro | 104 | 41 | 2.358 | 0.930 | 39.4% | 22.1% |
| Liam Delap | 53 | 17 | 2.839 | 0.911 | 32.1% | 3.8% |
| Nicolas Jackson | 56 | 32 | 3.810 | 2.177 | 57.1% | 19.6% |
Who is more dangerous from the bench?
We also lack on players, who are brining in an impact from the bench...
| Player | Sub Minutes | Sub Goals | Sub G+A | Sub G+A/90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro | 375 | 2 | 4 | 0.960 |
| Liam Delap | 519 | 1 | 1 | 0.173 |
| Nicolas Jackson | 236 | 4 | 4 | 1.525 |
The monthly trend is useful, but it needs context. Jackson’s line is more volatile because his minutes are not spread as evenly across the period. There is also an interruption around the Bundesliga winter break and AFCON/international availability period, so the empty or low months should not automatically be treated as poor form.
What matters more is what happens when he actually gets minutes: his productive months are much stronger than Delap’s. Delap has one clear spike, but otherwise his monthly G+A per 90 is mostly flat or close to zero. Jackson’s form line is less stable, but the upside is much higher.
Next, the efficiency chart:
Delap’s main issue is output cost. His minutes per goal and minutes per goal contribution are far higher than João Pedro and Jackson. Jackson is much closer to João Pedro’s efficiency profile.
Small note: this chart mixes percentage metrics and time-based metrics. For shot accuracy and conversion, higher is better. For minutes per goal and minutes per goal contribution, lower is better.
| Jackson gives you | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| More goal threat | Better chance of replacing João Pedro’s scoring output |
| More shots on target | More direct danger for the opposition goalkeeper |
| Better conversion | Much closer to João Pedro’s finishing level |
| Better starter output | More convincing if João Pedro needs rest from the XI |
| Better bench output | More useful as an impact option |
| Better recent form | Stronger current attacking trend |
| Closer attacking replacement | Better fit if the squad needs output cover |
But will be Jackson ready to be a backup or rotation player? What about him as a left winger, as we also lack on the left side...
Overall, I would pick Nicolas Jackson as the better sporting backup to João Pedro.
Delap’s best argument is workload. He has more minutes, more appearances and a more physical rotation profile. But if the backup role is about protecting João Pedro’s output when he rests, Jackson is clearly stronger.
If you have any suggestions or see any errors, please let me know : )