u/JoachimG1

Stage 4 take the riders on a hilly 181.9km journey from Carcassonne to Foix. After the first mountain finish in the Pyrenees, with Pogacar claiming the stage ahead of Vingegaard, this route is slightly easier. However, with around 2800m of climbing it will still be a demanding day. The final categorized climb comes more than 35 km from the finish, making this a stage that looks better for a strong breakaway rather than a showdown between the GC favorites.

The riders leave the medieval city of Carcassonne and head through the foothills of the Pyrenees before reaching the two main climbs of the day. First comes the Col de Coudons, a steady 10.5km climb at 5.5%, before the shorter but steeper Col de Montségur, 6.9km at 6.6%, which offers the last real chance to make a difference. From the summit, a long descent and rolling roads lead into Foix, where the fast finale should suit riders who can get over the final climb with a small gap.

With the sprinters expected to lose contact on the climbs and the GC teams unlikely to control the race, the battle to get into the breakaway should be fierce. If the right group gets away early, they have a very good chance of staying clear all the way to the finish.

Favorites:
| +++ | Romain Gregoire, Maxim Van Gils, Mathieu van der Poel
| ++ | Michael Matthews, Mads Pedersen, Mathias Vacek
| + | Magnus Cort, Jonas Abrahamsen

Pogacar collected his first of the tour, tomorrow the day for a breakaway?

Stage 3 bring the riders on a demanding 196km journey from Granollers to Les Angles. Following two stages around the area of Barcelona, the riders head into the Pyrenees for the first real mountain test of the Tour. The stage features nearly 3900m of climbing and five categorized climbs, with most of the elevation packed into the second half of the day.

The highlight of the day is the long climb of the Collada de Toses, followed later by the Col du Calvaire, which at 1,836 metres above sea level marks the highest point of the stage. Despite being the first mountain stage of the Tour, the climbs are not steep enough to guarantee attacks between the GC favorites. Instead, the stage looks perfectly suited to a strong breakaway. With the yellow jersey likely to change hands and the GC teams reluctant to control the race this early, plenty of riders will be eager to get into the breakaway.

The stage finishes with a 4.7km climb to Les Angles averaging 4.6%, with the final 1.7km up to around 6.5%. It is a finish that suits strong climbers with a fast finish rather than pure mountain specialists. If the breakaway gets enough freedom, the stage winner could also ride into the yellow jersey.

Favorites:
| +++ | Tadej Pogacar, Ben Healy, Romain Gregoire
| ++ | Remco Evenepoel, Mathieu van der Poel, Ben Healy
| + | Lennert Van Eetvelt, Mathias Vacek

The second stage of the Tour was taken down by Isaac del Toro alongside his teammate Pogacar! Before we focus on tomorrow's stage, make sure you tune in for the Brazil vs Norway game tonight! Hopefully we can row our way to the quarter finals and keep multitasking the World Cup and the Tour for another week!

Stage 2 takes the riders on a hilly 168.5km journey from Tarragona to Barcelona. While the opening half of the stage follows the Mediterranean coastline on mostly flat roads, the terrain becomes increasingly demanding as the race heads inland before reaching the finishing circuit around Montjuïc. In total, the riders face approximately 2500m of elevation gain, with several short but explosive climbs packed into the final 30 kilometres.

The stage starts in Tarragona, one of Spain’s oldest cities and an important settlement of the Roman Empire. Known in antiquity as Tarraco, it served as the Roman capital of Hispania Citerior and today boasts some of the best-preserved Roman ruins in the Iberian Peninsula. From there the riders follow the Costa Dorada before turning inland towards the hills south of Barcelona.

The decisive action is expected on the Montjuïc circuit. With roughly 30km remaining, the peloton enters a twisting and technical loop featuring the brutal Côte du Château de Montjuïc, 1.6km at 9.3% with ramps reaching 13%. After a short descent, the riders tackle the Côte du Stade Olympique, a 700m climb averaging 7%, where the finish line is located. The circuit is completed twice, meaning the final kilometres are packed with climbing, descending, attacks, and positioning battles. This is a finish perfectly suited to explosive puncheurs and GC contenders, while the pure sprinters are likely to struggle to stay in contention.

Favorites:
| +++ | Tadej Pogacar, Mathieu van der Poel, Mathias Vacek
| ++ | Remco Evenepoel, Jonas Vingegaard, Romain Gregoire
| + | Isaac del Toro, Tom Pidcock

Who do you think will win the first individual start of the tour?

Tour de France 2026, the 113th edition of the Tour, kicks off July 4th in Barcelona, Spain. Stage 1 takes the riders on a short but highly unusual 19.7km team time trial through the streets of the Catalan capital. While the opening kilometres are largely flat and fast, the route becomes increasingly tricky as it pass the iconic Sagrada Familia and heads towards the Montjuïc hill. The stage contains several short climbs throughout the course, with the climb up to Montjuïc and the final climb up to the Olympic stadium likely to create meaningful gaps. The olympic stadium was built in 1927 and hosted the Summer Olympic Games of 1992.

Unlike a traditional opening sprint stage, this first day immediately puts the general classification contenders under pressure. Teams will need to balance raw power on the flat sections with climbing strength for the uphill finale. Positioning and pacing will be important, as even small mistakes could cost valuable seconds before the Tour has really started. The final kilometres feature a challenging uphill run to the finish line, where the strong climbers in the team can show their strengths after the time trial specialists has done their job in the earlier parts of the stage.

While Netcompany Ineos are the current favorites for the stage win, UAE Team Emirates also shows up with a strong team around Tadej Pogačar and should be among the fastest teams on the course. Even though it is a short stage, it could already provide an early indication of which teams have arrived in prepared. Also with the first Yellow Jersey on the line, it will be an interesting battle already from the opening ramp. 

I note that more and more articles and analyses are made using AI, and although I understand that it makes sense to use it in research of statistics and to write up informational sections, I do want to keep putting my personal touch on my analyses.

Another thing I noticed while looking into the Tour, was that the team names have become increasingly longer and more unbearable to spell out this year. So please bear with me while we work through them over the coming weeks. Lets cross our fingers that the riders will provide more quality to the Tour than the sales personnel for team sponsors have done.

Favorites:
| +++ | Netcompany-INEOS, UAE Team Emirates
| ++ | Visma | Lease a bike, Red Bull - Bora Hansgrohe
| + | Lidl-Trek, EF Education - EasyPost

Link to favorites and more predictions:
https://checkthechance.com/cycling/tour-de-france/stage-by-stage/

Let me know what your thoughts are on the coming Tour and who your favorite will be!