Arkham data shows that Trump Media sold 2,650 BTC.
Lookonchain analysts believe the company likely exited part of the position at a loss, since the purchases were reportedly made in the $87,000–$118,000 range per BTC.
Back then we also had a local recovery, people talking about the bottom being in, and then the market simply continued drifting lower. The current setup looks very similar: BTC failed to hold above the 200 MA around $82.4k and dropped back toward the $76k area.
CryptoQuant also points to weakening perpetual futures demand, ETFs shifting from buying to net selling, and a negative Coinbase Premium showing weak US investor demand. Even their Bull Score Index has already fallen into the “extremely bearish” zone.
If the 2022 scenario is repeating, then the $70k area could become the place where the market starts looking for a new bottom.
Guys, have you ever wondered why 90% of retail traders lose money while big institutional firms and hedge funds stay consistently profitable?
I was watching a documentary about major Wall Street firms a while ago and found out that the biggest trading companies in the world have in-house trading psychologists. Every single morning, traders are evaluated by these psychologists, and if they aren't mentally cleared, they aren't even allowed to touch a position. This is literally the biggest difference between retail and institutional traders: psychological discipline.
Since I obviously don't have the money to hire a personal psychologist, I looked around and found DeZero, a platform that uses AI to do exactly this for free (under their Trading Psychology feature).
For the past 2 months, I've made this my absolute morning routine. Before I even look at the charts, I take the tests to see if the AI psychologist clears me to trade. For instance, the screenshot above is from this morning it gave me a 42% score and bluntly told me I’m gambling with my eyes closed and that trading is closed for the day.
For these 2 months, I strictly listened to it and followed its rules. You won't believe it, but after 2 months, my trading results improved by 50% to 60%, simply because trades driven by fatigue and anger were completely eliminated. I highly recommend making this your morning routine for 2 months to see the magic yourself.
BTC reacted sharply after tapping the supply zone and quickly moved lower. Price is now getting a response from the lower demand area, but the more interesting scenario would be a local bounce toward 79,000–79,500 before continuation downward.
For now, the focus is on whether the market can push higher short term and give confirmation for another short setup with targets below 73,000.
Kevin Warsh is set to become the new head of the Federal Reserve. Trump expects Warsh to finally begin aggressively cutting interest rates and injecting more liquidity into the markets.
The problem is that inflation in the US is accelerating again. Because of that, some analysts are already warning that rapid rate cuts during rising inflation could turn into a very dangerous experiment for the economy.
Right now the market is stuck between two fires:
either keep pressuring the economy with high rates,
or risk fueling another inflation wave to keep markets pumping.