Benchmarking the FPL prediction websites
Starting in GW28 this season, I collected predictions from many of the popular FPL prediction websites. Before each gameweek, I used each website's predictions to select an optimal team using standard FPL rules (£100M budget, formation rules, automatic substitutions, etc.). Then I tallied the number of points each website earned.
Here are the results:
| Website | Total pts | Average pts |
|---|---|---|
| FPL Team | 754 | 68.5 |
| Solio Analytics | 744 | 67.6 |
| Fantasy Football Hub | 713 | 64.8 |
| FPL Review (free version) | 705 | 64.1 |
| Fantasy Football Pundit | 669 | 60.8 |
| What The FPL | 636 | 57.8 |
| Official FPL API (the 'ep_next' field from the API) | 619 | 56.3 |
Remember, this is only from GW28 to GW38. Perhaps things would have been different if I ran this from the beginning of the season. But I think this gives a rough idea of how good each tool is relative to the others.
If you're interested in my methodology or additional stats (mean absolute error, root mean squared error, that sort of thing), there's a lot more detail here.
Every week, this sub gets flooded with points predictions so hopefully this gives an idea of which are most useful. Next season, I'll do this from GW1 so the results are over a full season. I'll also evaluate a lot more prediction websites. Please let me know which you'd like me to add or any other things I should track.