u/KamiOfTheForest

China spent decades after Mao putting basic succession rules in place so one guy couldn't dominate the system forever. Then Xi basically went "nah," concentrated power around himself, scrapped the presidential term limit and is now in his third term with no obvious successor. Historically, leaders deciding the normal rules don't apply to them hasn't exactly gone wonderfully well.

And it's not like Xi's record screams "indispensable genius." Zero-Covid was a mess, the tech/private-sector crackdowns hammered confidence, the property boom went bust, debt is huge, consumption is weak and the economy is slowing.

Youth unemployment is still around 15% even under the revised measure that excludes students. Worth remembering China stopped publishing the old figure after it hit over 21% in 2023, then brought it back with a new methodology. Add graduates struggling for jobs, falling property wealth and an ageing population and there's plenty of anxiety around.

China obviously isn't "collapsing." It's still an industrial monster and ridiculously strong in EVs, batteries, renewables and manufacturing.

Which honestly makes the succession question more interesting. Xi weakened the old rules without really showing what replaces them. Maybe he eventually picks someone and it all goes smoothly.

But what if he doesn't?

What if he's 80 with no clear successor, or suddenly gets sick? After years of everyone competing to prove loyalty to one guy, who actually takes control of the Party, military and security apparatus when that guy is gone?

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