β² 16 r/NepalStock
The Price You Pay for a Stock Matters a Lot β Just Ask Anyone Who Bought EBL in 2016
Everest Bank Limited (EBL): Listed on NEPSE on April 3, 1995.
A Cautionary Tale:
If you had invested Rs. 1 Lakh on 16th November 2016 and cashed out today, you would be roughly "even" β no real gains even after almost 10 years.
**Prices on graph are adjusted for rights-share and bonus shares.**
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EBL
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Requested start date : 2016-11-16
Actual start date : 2016-11-16 (nearest trading day)
Requested end date : 2026-08-17 (today)
Actual end date : 2026-08-14 (nearest trading day)
Price on start date : Rs. 3,795.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 26.3505 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
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2016-11-16 Initial purchase 26.3505
2016-12-21 Cash div 3.6750% [2072/2073] 26.3505 96.84
2016-12-21 Bonus 70.00% [2072/2073] 44.7958
2017-08-05 Right share (3:1) @ Rs.100 59.7277 1,493.19
2017-12-28 Cash div 1.7400% [2073/2074] 59.7277 103.93
2017-12-28 Bonus 33.00% [2073/2074] 79.4379
2018-12-12 Cash div 20.0000% [2074/2075] 79.4379 1,588.76
2019-12-20 Cash div 20.0000% [2075/2076] 79.4379 1,588.76
2019-12-20 Bonus 5.00% [2075/2076] 83.4097
2020-12-25 Cash div 5.5300% [2076/2077] 83.4097 461.26
2020-12-25 Bonus 5.00% [2076/2077] 87.5802
2021-12-03 Cash div 4.3200% [2077/2078] 87.5802 378.35
2021-12-03 Bonus 6.00% [2077/2078] 92.8351
2022-11-29 Cash div 7.6800% [2078/2079] 92.8351 712.97
2022-11-29 Bonus 13.00% [2078/2079] 104.9036
2023-10-03 Cash div 10.5300% [2079/2080] 104.9036 1,104.63
2023-10-03 Bonus 10.00% [2079/2080] 115.3940
2024-09-24 Cash div 5.5300% [2080/2081] 115.3940 638.13
2024-09-24 Bonus 10.00% [2080/2081] 126.9334
2025-10-10 Cash div 14.0000% [2081/2082] 126.9334 1,777.07
2025-10-10 Bonus 6.00% [2081/2082] 134.5494
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Latest price date : 2026-08-14 (LTP: Rs. 728.00)
Total units today : 134.5494 kitta
Market value : Rs. 97,951.94 (134.5494 Γ 728.00)
βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Years : 9.7413
XIRR : ~almost zero
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This is a cautionary tale in the "what if you held" series. You can invest in a good business, but if you invest at the wrong price, even 10 years later you could be at a slight loss, or "even" money. This example for EBL demonstrates this. This is however the most extreme case where you bought at the absolute top.
So it is always good to know a little about market cycles as an investor. Don't FOMO into anything and NEVER buy any stock without understanding what you are buying.
It is sad that a lot of people got burned 10 years ago. A lot of boomers who came into money had a bad experience and will probably never get back into the stock market.
Back to our regular format:
TL;DR
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Duration | Multiple | CAGR/XIRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full hold since 2011 | Mar 2011 | Today | 15.40 yrs | 8.65x | 17.14% XIRR |
| Bull 3 | Mar 2012 | Jul 2016 | 4.33 yrs | 11.07x | 74.26% CAGR |
| Bull 4 | Mar 2019 | Aug 2021 | 2.46 yrs | 1.69x | 23.96% CAGR |
| Current cycle | Sep 2022 | Today | 3.89 yrs | 2.3x | 23.89% CAGR |
Nepse Chart:
Scenario 1: A 15+yr Hold (2011-03-20 β Today)
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EBL
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Start date : 2011-03-20
End date : 2026-08-17 (today)
Price on start date : Rs. 984.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 101.6260 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
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2011-03-20 Initial purchase 101.6260
2011-10-17 Cash div 50.0000% [2067/2068] 101.6260 5,081.30
2011-10-17 Bonus 10.00% [2067/2068] 111.7886
2012-10-19 Cash div 1.5800% [2068/2069] 111.7886 176.63
2012-10-19 Bonus 30.00% [2068/2069] 145.3252
2013-09-18 Cash div 50.5300% [2069/2070] 145.3252 7,343.28
2013-09-18 Bonus 10.00% [2069/2070] 159.8577
2014-09-03 Cash div 50.0000% [2070/2071] 159.8577 7,992.89
2014-09-03 Bonus 12.00% [2070/2071] 179.0407
2015-12-01 Cash div 6.5700% [2071/2072] 179.0407 1,176.30
2015-12-01 Bonus 30.00% [2071/2072] 232.7528
2016-12-21 Cash div 3.6750% [2072/2073] 232.7528 855.37
2016-12-21 Bonus 70.00% [2072/2073] 395.6798
2017-08-05 Right share (3:1) @ Rs.100 527.5731 13,189.33
2017-12-28 Cash div 1.7400% [2073/2074] 527.5731 917.98
2017-12-28 Bonus 33.00% [2073/2074] 701.6722
2018-12-12 Cash div 20.0000% [2074/2075] 701.6722 14,033.44
2019-12-20 Cash div 20.0000% [2075/2076] 701.6722 14,033.44
2019-12-20 Bonus 5.00% [2075/2076] 736.7559
2020-12-25 Cash div 5.5300% [2076/2077] 736.7559 4,074.26
2020-12-25 Bonus 5.00% [2076/2077] 773.5937
2021-12-03 Cash div 4.3200% [2077/2078] 773.5937 3,341.92
2021-12-03 Bonus 6.00% [2077/2078] 820.0093
2022-11-29 Cash div 7.6800% [2078/2079] 820.0093 6,297.67
2022-11-29 Bonus 13.00% [2078/2079] 926.6105
2023-10-03 Cash div 10.5300% [2079/2080] 926.6105 9,757.21
2023-10-03 Bonus 10.00% [2079/2080] 1019.2715
2024-09-24 Cash div 5.5300% [2080/2081] 1019.2715 5,636.57
2024-09-24 Bonus 10.00% [2080/2081] 1121.1987
2025-10-10 Cash div 14.0000% [2081/2082] 1121.1987 15,696.78
2025-10-10 Bonus 6.00% [2081/2082] 1188.4706
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Latest price date : 2026-08-14 (LTP: Rs. 728.00)
Total units today : 1188.4706 kitta
Market value : Rs. 865,206.59 (1188.4706 Γ 728.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 96,415.04
Total right share cost : Rs. 13,189.33
Today's Value : Rs. 865,206.59
βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Years : 15.4031
XIRR : 17.14%
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
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Verdict:
17% over 15 years is not bad at all.
Scenario 2: Bull Cycle 3 (2012-03-29 β 2016-07-27)
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NEPSE CAGR Calculator | EBL
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Start date : 2012-03-29
End date : 2016-07-27
Price on start date : Rs. 670.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 149.2537 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
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2012-03-29 Initial purchase 149.2537
2012-10-19 Cash div 1.5800% [2068/2069] 149.2537 235.82
2012-10-19 Bonus 30.00% [2068/2069] 194.0299
2013-09-18 Cash div 50.5300% [2069/2070] 194.0299 9,804.33
2013-09-18 Bonus 10.00% [2069/2070] 213.4328
2014-09-03 Cash div 50.0000% [2070/2071] 213.4328 10,671.64
2014-09-03 Bonus 12.00% [2070/2071] 239.0448
2015-12-01 Cash div 6.5700% [2071/2072] 239.0448 1,570.52
2015-12-01 Bonus 30.00% [2071/2072] 310.7582
βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Latest price date : 2016-07-27 (LTP: Rs. 3,490.00)
Total units today : 310.7582 kitta
Market value : Rs. 1,084,546.15 (310.7582 Γ 3,490.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 22,282.32
Total right share cost : Rs. 0.00
Today's Value : Rs. 1,106,828.46
βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Years : 4.3285
CAGR : 74.26%
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
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Verdict:
11x in 4 years β this is what a NEPSE bull cycle at full sprint looks like.
Scenario 3: Bull Cycle 4 (2019-03-05 β 2021-08-18)
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EBL
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Start date : 2019-03-05
End date : 2021-08-18
Price on start date : Rs. 509.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 196.4637 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
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2019-03-05 Initial purchase 196.4637
2019-12-20 Cash div 20.0000% [2075/2076] 196.4637 3,929.27
2019-12-20 Bonus 5.00% [2075/2076] 206.2868
2020-12-25 Cash div 5.5300% [2076/2077] 206.2868 1,140.77
2020-12-25 Bonus 5.00% [2076/2077] 216.6012
βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Latest price date : 2021-08-18 (LTP: Rs. 759.00)
Total units today : 216.6012 kitta
Market value : Rs. 164,400.29 (216.6012 Γ 759.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 5,070.04
Total right share cost : Rs. 0.00
Today's Value : Rs. 169,470.33
βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Years : 2.4559
CAGR : 23.96%
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
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Verdict:
Roughly 1.7x in 2.5 years β a milder cycle compared to Bull 3, but still solidly above bank FD returns.
Scenario 4: Current Cycle (2022-09-25 β 2026-08-17)
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EBL
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Start date : 2022-09-25
End date : 2026-08-17 (today)
Price on start date : Rs. 478.90
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 208.8119 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
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2022-09-25 Initial purchase 208.8119
2022-11-29 Cash div 7.6800% [2078/2079] 208.8119 1,603.68
2022-11-29 Bonus 13.00% [2078/2079] 235.9574
2023-10-03 Cash div 10.5300% [2079/2080] 235.9574 2,484.63
2023-10-03 Bonus 10.00% [2079/2080] 259.5531
2024-09-24 Cash div 5.5300% [2080/2081] 259.5531 1,435.33
2024-09-24 Bonus 10.00% [2080/2081] 285.5085
2025-10-10 Cash div 14.0000% [2081/2082] 285.5085 3,997.12
2025-10-10 Bonus 6.00% [2081/2082] 302.6390
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Latest price date : 2026-08-14 (LTP: Rs. 728.00)
Total units today : 302.6390 kitta
Market value : Rs. 220,321.17 (302.6390 Γ 728.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 9,520.75
Total right share cost : Rs. 0.00
Today's Value : Rs. 229,841.92
βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Years : 3.8850
CAGR : 23.89%
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
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Verdict:
Current cycle is compounding at 24% CAGR over ~4 years β the investment has already doubled (2x).
Methodology & Caveats
- Cash dividends are treated as received but not reinvested/compounded.
- Tax on dividends and capital gains is not deducted.
- Prices and corporate action history are pulled from historical NEPSE records β cross-check the data.
Disclaimer
I am just doing an exercise in seeing how a random stock on the NEPSE has performed in the past. I am not giving any stock tips or recommendations.
>"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." β George Soros
u/Karma_maps1 β 3 days ago
