My current thoughts
This is truly fantastic. 50M USD a day is more than satisfactory for me, almost 11B a year. Add the 2.5B dividend and you have 13.5B returned to investors, almost a 6 percent yield just from buybacks and dividends excluding SBC. The price certainly will not stay at these levels for the next 12 months, even though I hope it does.
On top of that, you have a company that is drastically reducing its Quick Commerce losses. Joe Tsai recently stated in France that China Commerce is still generating 25B USD in FCF, which is being reinvested into a segment that is now growing exponentially. We are no longer talking about 3, 4, or 5 %, but 40 % a year, without hurting margins. In fact, Cloud margins are stable, and judging by their promises, we can expect some improvement of a few percentage points in the near future.
At these levels, from a risk perspective (which is not price volatility, but rather the possibility of a true permanent loss of capital, which is very low here), we can expect 40B in EBITA over the next 4 to 5 years. With the current valuation, that would lead to an EV/EBITA multiple of less than 5x.
If you believe the risk of investing in China is too high, for government reasons, US and China tensions, Taiwan, or whatever, you are right not to invest. But here a famous quote comes to mind again, from Charlie Munger about 23 years ago:
"If a thing is cheap enough, obviously you can afford a little more country risk, or regulatory risk, or whatever. This is not complicated." Charlie Munger.