
Is everyone really expecting us to drop after earnings?
Reading a lot of comments over the last week, everyone is saying we will Tank.
Does anyone believe the opposite?

Reading a lot of comments over the last week, everyone is saying we will Tank.
Does anyone believe the opposite?
Their docs are almost always out of date.
They have too many different pages and websites for the same product that it is stupidly tedious to find what you're looking for.
Their coding subscription plan only includes models that are months out of date. You don't get either of ther Qwen 3.8 models, you don't get any flash models, the 3rd party models they're hosting are so out of date they're unusable (Kimi 2.5, GLM 5, Minimax 2.5). Who would seriously pay $50 a month for that?
This really should be something you shouldn't even have to think about as a user and there's no other competitor who has this issue. It's pretty worrying that so much opportunity is probably being left on the table because of terrible design and lazy management.
TL;DR: Tried out Alibaba Cloud (Qwen) for full-time development work. After buying a paid token plan on a dedicated sales rep’s advice, they emailed me a $200 / 70M free token "Welcome Gift." What followed was a 2-week nightmare: broken SMS delivery for Mexican numbers, support denying local carrier issues, and then changing excuses (claiming the offer was "Enterprise only" or invalidated by my recent purchase, despite the promo email arriving after I paid). Between broken onboarding, contradictory support, and Qwen’s poor token-per-dollar ratio compared to Cursor/Claude Code/DeepSeek/Gemini, the developer experience is a complete mess. Avoid.
As developers, evaluating new cloud providers and AI APIs is part of our routine. When a major cloud infrastructure provider reaches out directly and follows up with promotional incentives, it seems like a natural opportunity to benchmark their platform and integrate their models into daily workflows.
However, my recent 3-week experience testing Alibaba Cloud (Qwen) revealed a deeply frustrating cycle: misleading sales outreach, broken onboarding workflows, uncoordinated support teams, and pricing that simply fails to compete with alternative AI tools.
Here is an honest breakdown of the facts.
My interaction began on July 28, 2026, when a dedicated Cloud Service Manager reached out via email to offer tailored solutions and discounts. Having recently registered an account to test their platform for full-time development work, I replied with a straightforward operational question:
>My Question: “I ran out of weekly tokens very quickly. Based on my usage, what would you recommend me to be able to work full time the entire week (at least 40+ hours a week)?”
The response from dedicated support on August 2 was completely generic:
>The Recommendation: “I think the token plan is currently the most cost-efficient plan. If you find that you’ve run out of usage, I would suggest upgrading your plan or buying an extra token package.”
There was no custom guidance, no specialized discount, and no real account assessment — just a basic prompt to upgrade my paid token package.
On August 4, just two days after purchasing a paid plan, Alibaba Cloud’s marketing team delivered a promotional email to my inbox:
When I attempted to claim the offer, the workflow broke entirely:
This created a complete contradiction: Alibaba Cloud explicitly delivered a targeted welcome gift to an active account’s inbox a week after a purchase was made, only to block the claim on the backend using undisclosed terms and prior purchase history.
Over the course of 10+ days and multiple support ticket updates:
The experience ultimately concluded with setting the support ticket to unresolved, as continuing to debug a provider’s internal marketing and SMS infrastructure is an unreasonable investment of time.
Setting the customer experience aside, the core question for any developer is value: Is the platform worth the cost and friction?
While models like Qwen 2.5 / 3.5 offer respectable performance, the ecosystem value proposition rapidly falls apart when compared to the current market:
Marketing campaigns and outreach emails are meant to attract developers, not create administrative burdens.
If a cloud platform sends promotional incentives to an active user’s inbox, buries the process behind broken regional SMS verification, shifts eligibility terms after technical barriers are cleared, and offers uncompetitive token-per-dollar rates, it severely damages developer trust.
For teams and independent engineers evaluating LLM API providers, technical capabilities are only half the equation. Onboarding friction, clear terms, and respectful customer support matter just as much — and in this case, Alibaba Cloud fell far short.
Hang Seng TECH index (800700) has been lagging the AI trade because many of the big China AI/semis winners were not even in the index.
Now Hang Seng is proposing to redesign HSTECH from 30 to 50 stocks, with much more exposure to AI, semis, robotics, hardware and cloud.
Official proposal:
https://www.hsi.com.hk/static/uploads/contents/en/news/pressRelease/20260810T180000.pdf
Timeline:
If HSTECH starts becoming the main China AI index, adding these AI winners could give the whole index a much stronger push and potentially attract more money into HSTECH.
BABA then gets both: China AI rising tide + its own Cloud/Qwen monetisation.
Basically instead of BABA trying to rerate alone, it could finally have the broader China AI trade pushing behind it too.
Alibaba Cloud just opened its 3rd data center in South Korea and launched its Agentic AI services there.
The part I find interesting is actual usage. Gendive is using Alibaba’s Wan/HappyHorse models inside its agentic workflow product, while Zepeto is using Alibaba Cloud for real-time 3D avatar generation.
Not saying this alone will move BABA, but it’s another sign that AI demand is moving from just training models to real production workloads that keep consuming inference and tokens.
This is the part of Alibaba Cloud I think the market may still be underestimating.
My estimates:
Cloud growth 40%-45%
Ecommerce CMR ~7% +/-1
Quick commerce QOQ loss drop to -20%
Adjusted EPS $1.35-$1.40
Guidance - Management confirms that demand matched expectations and justify the massive capex.
If it meets my estimates, i predict slight positive stock
Movement, baba will trade around $130+ level.
Qwen is a really good model, next step is making great business with it.
Alibaba’s AI team just sneak-dropped a nuke on the entire AI sector. They just released their new open-weight model, Qwen3.8-27B, on Hugging Face.
https://huggingface.co/Qwen/Qwen3.8-27B
This thing is only 27 Billion parameters. For the smoothbrains, that means it's incredibly tiny. But it is benchmarking right at the Claude 4.6 Opus Max level. It’s straight-up beating massive 100B+ models in agentic coding and complex reasoning. Anthropic and OpenAI are spending billions on compute to build massive closed models, and Alibaba just open-sourced a tiny beast that does the exact same job for free.
You can run this on a gaming rig. Because it’s so small, you don’t need a $40,000 Nvidia H100 to run it. This thing fits comfortably on a single 24GB VRAM GPU. you can easily run this on a 3090, 4090, 5090, or a Mac with 32GB+ Unified Memory.
TL;DR: Alibaba released a tiny AI model (Qwen3.8-27B) that punches like a heavyweight champion (matches Claude 4.6 Opus Max). It runs on consumer GPUs. Open-source is eating the AI software moat.
Hey can you tell me where I can open my buissnes of costum jeans
Where to order from alibaba?
JD.com reported second-quarter earnings of RMB6.29 per share, exceeding the analyst consensus of RMB5.63 by RMB0.66.
Revenue reached RMB346.4 billion, also coming in ahead of Wall Street expectations of RMB342.7 billion.
However, sales declined 2.9% compared with the second quarter of 2025. JD.com attributed the year-over-year contraction primarily to a challenging comparison with the strong revenue base established during the prior-year period.
DeepSeek currently charges less than a dollar per million input and output tokens, which is how AI services are sold to customers. By comparison, Anthropic's Fable 5 model charges $10 per million input and $50 per million output tokens.
Trustar Capital is nearing a deal to buy Alibaba Group Holding Ltd’s video game unit, Lingxi Games, for more than US$1.5 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.
Its very obvious good news bad news dont matter anymore. Investors just want to sell china to buy AI and Semi in US and Korea. China AI and Robot startups waiting to IPO so they can dump their shares and take the money. That doesn’t help either.
CCP wont do shit because they dont care about shareholders. They care about technology and control.
Im trimming my position soon