r/baba

Beijing has opened consultation on amendments to its e-commerce law that tighten expectations on big platforms around consumer rights, data use and liability for what happens on their marketplaces.

This seems to be a slow grind on margins and business models rather than a one-off shock. If these rules land close to the draft, how should we think about long term profitability and valuations for China’s major e-commerce names and their global partners?

This is looking good for us, they are keeping up with 4million shares/day.

https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0702/2026070203581.pdf

https://preview.redd.it/2rtf00fu3uah1.png?width=1369&format=png&auto=webp&s=9dec35c07e3f92bf574c533329692c641e879606

And Open source it. That’ll definitely give it an edge.

Man I thought we were going to pump and break $100 the past few days

I knew I shouldn’t be hopeful

I did a search a couple days ago to see how baba performed when it previously hit 1 year lows compared to a year later. Depending on when exactly it was bought after hitting the one year low the returns are as follows.

2021: still would have returned -35%

2022: 15 - 25% return

2023: 10 - 20% return

2024: 20 - 35% return

What gets really interesting is if you bought at the year low then sold at the high within 12 months of that low. Those returns are as follows:

2021 67% return

2022 109% return

2023 36% return

2024 118% return

2025 71% return

We just hit the one year low and it's leveling off. Based on the last 5 years that's a pretty good opportunity to jump in.

Well, I posted this too late.

1. But all the sellers are out

2. Exec team already sold (CEO, CFO)

3. Cathie Woods is out

4. Company doing aggressive buy backs to defend the floor

This is where the risk/reward is in our favor

15x P/E is dirt cheap

Risk is lower, upside is higher

Not a good look for Alibaba... what do we make of this?

According to a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Form 144 filing submitted on June 29, 2026, Evans sold 720,000 ordinary shares of Alibaba stock. [1, 2]

Transaction Breakdown

• Total Transaction Value: The sale generated $68,360,495.
• Average Selling Price: The shares were liquidated in blocks at weighted average prices ranging from $94.92 to $95.59 per share.
• Impact on Holdings: This transaction represented a 96.26% reduction in his direct share ownership.
• Remaining Stake: Following the completion of the sale, Evans retains direct ownership of 28,000 ordinary shares. [1, 2]

This follows previous planned or proposed sales by Evans under Rule 144, including a filing in mid-2025 for over 1 million shares. [1, 2]

https://www.wsj.com/business/alibaba-u-s-payment-processor-to-pay-600-million-in-doj-settlement-over-illegal-drug-sales-23c40942

was this probe public as in was this known that doj is looking into baba?

This is truly fantastic. 50M USD a day is more than satisfactory for me, almost 11B a year. Add the 2.5B dividend and you have 13.5B returned to investors, almost a 6 percent yield just from buybacks and dividends excluding SBC. The price certainly will not stay at these levels for the next 12 months, even though I hope it does.

On top of that, you have a company that is drastically reducing its Quick Commerce losses. Joe Tsai recently stated in France that China Commerce is still generating 25B USD in FCF, which is being reinvested into a segment that is now growing exponentially. We are no longer talking about 3, 4, or 5 %, but 40 % a year, without hurting margins. In fact, Cloud margins are stable, and judging by their promises, we can expect some improvement of a few percentage points in the near future.

At these levels, from a risk perspective (which is not price volatility, but rather the possibility of a true permanent loss of capital, which is very low here), we can expect 40B in EBITA over the next 4 to 5 years. With the current valuation, that would lead to an EV/EBITA multiple of less than 5x.

If you believe the risk of investing in China is too high, for government reasons, US and China tensions, Taiwan, or whatever, you are right not to invest. But here a famous quote comes to mind again, from Charlie Munger about 23 years ago:

"If a thing is cheap enough, obviously you can afford a little more country risk, or regulatory risk, or whatever. This is not complicated." Charlie Munger.

It looks like yesterday, there was 4x the previous daily amount of share repurchased. Management is trying to hold the floor before the buy backs out weigh selling pressure and the stock rises above $100 again.

https://www1.hkexnews.hk/search/titlesearch.xhtml?lang=EN&market=SEHK&stockId=1000195154&category=0

https://preview.redd.it/p0p9o7s3bfah1.png?width=1334&format=png&auto=webp&s=7163457e8746cf141ce2382f1b4c167aa8316da4

CEO and CFO and Cathie Woods sold recently. Everyone sold. Sucks for them to give up cheap shares. They'll regret it in the coming years. Their loss, our gain. Once all the sellers are out and no more sellers, we are likely to go back up.

Google announced they don't have enough servers to serve Meta's AI demands. Companies in china will need AI as well. Baba will be the leading force to upsell cloud clients into AI.

I regret buying too little, I'm loading the boat now while the markets panicked.

RemindMe! 1 year from now, and we will be in the $150's

Their Ecommerce business is #1 in china, and forever here to stay. Strong free cash flow to support the AI side of things. If there was no AI capex, they'd still be producing strong revenues. Their growth slowed form 30% to 3-6% but that's totally okay, the FCF still maintains.

I was in crypto before this and I've seen -75% draw downs before seeing 10-20x (where I've made all my money) (at -75% draw downs, all the weak hands have left, and you're just left with true believers who iron hand and don't sell), so whatever happens here is nothing and we're backed by fundamentals at least.

I was in muni bonds the past 4 years, and BABA is my main stock buy purchase.

https://preview.redd.it/mpy9hy3d08ah1.png?width=1566&format=png&auto=webp&s=3dfa2562a50912a4712470b3564ec7ab4a519244

Right now, you're getting the business at its cheapest in the past decade. Price is 50% from peak but 50% extra in revenues.

If you haven't considered a position, now is the time.

And baba will power AI for robotics which will be a big TAM on its own.

I left this sub back in early February as the hopium and terrible AI posts by bababuy pushed me over the limit as well as the underwhelming performance in January. I said this stock was going to be a opportunity loss vs the US market and was right. Now I'm back because ehat I care about which is the options flow today says the days of being bled dry are coming to an end.

September expiry saw massive 33 million dollar positions open with a 100 strike. 24x the OI so this is a new whale getting ready to ride the wave. Same strike and expiry on the put side a 55 million dollar premium was collected. Both executed at the same time up to the very second.

I will be starting entering long as of tomorrow. For those who suffered; dont give up hope!

Guys, I am in 25% loss, my avg is 126$. Do you recommend to sell or hold it? Wall Street analyst's low price target is 145$. I dont know if it is correct

LongCat-2.0 was ⁠trained from scratch using 50,000 domestic chips and can process inputs of up to 1 million tokens, allowing it to handle ultra-long documents, according to the statement.

https://preview.redd.it/evzpw0q428ah1.png?width=1071&format=png&auto=webp&s=71a43a967d25264948e01b4917ced9d9c5cb2692

Over time, you are owning more and more of the business even if the price isn't going up and you're exposed to more of the earnings per share.

We really need to be posting in the other groups to promote this undervalued gem

Those who get in early will thank themselves in the next few years as AI breaks out and BABA plays a major leading role in china.

This is early, cheap, and their FCF ecommerce empire is fully subsidizing the AI growth without any additional debt

Do you guys really think this is justified? Think of all the technical developments and innovation that has taken place in the Chinese tech sector. You can include the related companies; Bidu, byd, bytedance, tencent…

When you think of what all of these businesses have become in relation to the way the world is heading, which I think will be heavily reliant on AI and a further evolving technological ecosystem. I think these current valuations after the recent selloff are a juicy buying opportunity. To each their own. Not everyone can stomach the obvious risks. I have bought more in the past few weeks and am excited to ride it out! Who else is with me?