u/Key-Guitar-457

This card has a few races that I like. I tend to do well in races for younger horses and/or turf. A couple of interesting observations from today's handicapping:

• As good as Vekoma has been as a young sire, he still has no Grade 1 winners so far
• Ken McPeek is 0/18 with first time starters on turf on the NYRA circuit, faring no better than 3rd with any of them

In the 4th, there are quite a few runners in here with a big chance. I like a long shot, Captain G, quite a bit at 15/1 morning line. Casse does well with second time starters stretching out on turf, and he is a perfect 2/2 with this angle and Zayas in the saddle. I like the progressive works leading up to this, however given the pedigree I do wonder if two turns will be an issue. Suspend had a good enough debut, and I can't discount the chances of some improvement second time out. Jersey Guy comes out of a potential key race where he ran pretty well on debut, and moves to a better post where he may not have to take the overland route this time. Real Restraint is obviously dangerous first time out for Walsh/TGaff, and his half sister Movin' On Up is a Grade 2 winner on turf going long. Greenwell, Captain G's stablemate, has two races under his belt including a very nice debut, and this $500k yearling stretches out to two turns, gets the grass for the first time, and has one of the best turf riders in the game on top. Related Party, for the familiar Prat/Brown/Klaravich connections, draws the outside post, and shows up with some gaps in the work tab. See my note above regarding McPeek with Vintage Velocity. The two pricey Pletcher first timers Culpable and Dignify could surprise, however unless one or both are super live on the tote board I will be trying to beat them.

The 6th looks like the second half of an oversubscribed 4th, and I have a lot less of an opinion here. E Z Speaker sold for $650k in May, however there are some notable gaps in the work tab, he draws the tricky inside post, and the pedigree does not scream turf. Not Ever (Ire) has solid first out connections, yet again there are some gaps in the work tab which does not inspire confidence. EZ Speaker's stablemate Casino has a race under his belt in which he broke slowly and showed mild improvement, finishing just behind Suspend who runs in the 4th. He took some action that day, and improvement is not out of the question. Permanent Record (GB) is another Prat/Brown/Klaravich first timer, and has a very interesting pedigree for this surface and distance. As opposed to Related Party in the first, this one has a consistent albeit not very flashy work tab leading up to this. I suspect the tote will help set expectations for this outing. Amplified is a My Racehorse runner, so as per usual I expect an undue amount of action on him, which is always nice if you don't like the runner. They paid $350k for this one at the OBS March sale, which is a bit surprising given the low stud fee of Happy Saver, who has not had a winner so far. Roscoe Goose sits pretty low at 6/1 on the morning line and has a flashy work or two leading up to this. Given the far outside post, the lack of early success in his pedigree, and Riley Mott's lack of success with first time starters going long, I will be trying to beat him. See my note above on McPeek for Chambered. Al Stall has a similar dearth of success in debut runners on this circuit, which makes me discount Hilts chances. Similarly, Pletcher/Repole first time starters on the turf are 2/36, which absent heavy tote support makes me doubt the chances of Bring Cash.

The 8th is a mixed bag. There projects to be a few horses gunning for the lead here on the inner turf course, which has not been as heavily biased to speed the last week or two and might be even less so given the recent rain softening the course. Few of these runners have raced up to the 88 Beyer par for this class and distance, which can sometimes make for more chaos and jockeying deciding the outcome. One of the outside speeds is Mo Trump, whose last race we can draw a line through. In his third off a layoff, a run back to his race in January at Tampa Bay would likely be more than enough, and he has an excellent wet turf pedigree and won here on a soft course in July 2025 at huge odds. However, he has speed drawn directly to his outside with Terminal Velocity, and Saez is likely to take the initiative early with that one. Directly to their inside, Truman's Commander stretches out after running well in two sprints on the Melon, and is an improving type also coming in to his third start off the layoff. Smooth Breeze projects to stalk and pounce, has had success on softer ground, and projects to get an ideal trip. However, I am not crazy about 4 straight descending Beyers, though it isn't too hard to make excuses for each of them (tough trip, over matched in the Kingston, and didn't like the slop). I would need better than 4/1 to consider a win wager. Jack's World projects to be running late and could also get a great setup with all the speed to his outside. I'm not in love with the wet turf pedigree, and his swerving and tossing Prat after the wire last out after a perfect trip and ride gives me some pause, as I am not sure the stars will align again. Inspeightofcharlie ran "just ok" according to my notes last out, and essentially paired his 84 Beyer top. His even running style always makes him hard to discount, though he might be bet down today for the 4th straight outing which makes him less attractive given the competition he faces here, which is a step up from beating the overbet maiden winner Honoree last out. Jack and Jim's comeback race was cut short at the Big A when he clipped heels and tossed his jock. He took a ton of action for a horse coming off a 18 month layoff, and could well go off favored here. He certainly could play a big part in the outcome, however I am going to make him prove it before I bet on him. Shared Success is a 9 year old claimer and appears to not offer much beyond some fuel for the pace. Cable Ready has a similar even running style to Inspeightofcharlie, however draws the rail and hasn't won a race in over two years.

In the Grade 3 Mahony, Outfielder is the speed of the speed coming out of a poor effort at Royal Ascot which can certainly be forgiven. The wet turf pedigree is weak on the dam side, and he will be very short odds again on a course that does has not favored front runners since the Belmont at the Spa meet in the spring. His big win at Churchill in May was on a course that strongly favored horses near the lead, and I would like him to prove it outside of Kentucky before I am convinced that this one deserves the short odds. Rebel With a Cause caught a perfect rail ride to score last out at Monmouth, and has a perfect progressive Beyer figure pattern going back to his first start. He finished a distant fourth to Outfielder at Churchill, yet is clearly on the improve and could offer some value if anywhere near the 8/1 morning line odds. Oscar's Hope projects to track just behind Outfielder in his first outing on turf. The pedigree does not scream turf on the dam side, however this one clearly has some talent and cannot be discounted. Intricate Spirit has yet to run back to his best races as a 2 year old, which is a bit of a concern for me. This one also prefers the front, however does not look as fast on paper as the previous two and was clearly rank under restraint last time out. Big Destroyer has an even running style and hasn't done much wrong in his first two starts, running second to Rebel With a Cause last out. He gets Prat back in the saddle, which is seldom a bad thing, and only needs a little improvement to be a big factor at the wire. Learntodiscover (GB) won a Grade 3 here last out, displaying a surprising change of tactics to close from the clouds and just get up. That race may have been a bit less competitive than this one projects to be, and it isn't abundantly clear if he will keep the closing running style if he breaks well this time. Stradale makes his second turf start, and has some talent. However his two races at Oaklawn in the winter tower over his most recent efforts, and it isn't clear that he really wants turf. That said, he gets Jose Ortiz, though he and Assmusen haven't had much success here on the turf with the game Zeitlos the main exception.

Who do you like today? I'd love to hear your opinions!

I didn't find many bets at Saratoga or Woodbine today. I hit the exacta in the Clement at the Spa, but as I had it boxed it wasn't much of a score. I lost a small WP wager in the second where my pick showed nothing. At Woodbine I only found a couple bets and didn't hit either, first trying to beat Cattrall in the 4th and then Luster, who certainly seems like a monster, in the Kings Plate. All in all I ended up with a small loss combined between the two.

I loved Hidden Profit in the second at Evangeline off his Canterbury form, and it paid off in a big way with a WP bet at 17/1, just missing the exacta with Castle Island. I didn't see Hidden Profit getting the easy lead, and also didn't see Red Road taking back and then hanging on for second.

In the 6th at Del Mar, I loved Fibonaccis Ride with the improvement pattern and best late pace figure in a race that looked like a duel on paper and materialized as such, my second WP cash on a 17/1 shot of the day. I did not even try the exacta as I had no clue who would finish second and suspected it could very well be one of the two favorites, who completely backed out of it in the stretch.

Now that I have some house money, I am hoping that I can get the 6/1 morning line on Innovative in the 8th at Del Mar. Kentucky Gal needed a perfect trip to beat her in June, and Innovative rated kindly and also galloped out extremely well.

I know from the other threads that some of you absolutely crushed today at Saratoga and Woodbine. Very well done! Let's hear about your day and if you have any more bullets to fire before the sun goes down.

They've put together a great card today on Kings Plate day.

In the 4th, in what looks to be a highly competitive affair, I will take a shot with Hope Is A Breeze for Josie Carroll, who fires with first time starters across surfaces and distances and often at fair odds (this one is 15-1 on the morning line). Her sire Charlatan is lights out with turf sprinters, and I love the work tab (no gaps since second work, one turf work right before this race). Carroll's other runner, Any Oscar, has a sneaky good race under her belt and gets another furlong and a half; improvement seems likely (12-1 morning line). Cattrall looks like the obvious speed and might be hard to deny at a short price, with Johnny V taking the mount. All three of the Casse runners could be dangerous, with Worldly Charm having a very good debut last out and switching from poly to turf, From Time to Time ($500k yearling at Keeneland fall sale) having plenty of pedigree for this trip, and Bounce Back going first out for Gary Barber, though she might want more distance. The later two do have some gaps in the work tab to take note of. Sunday Finery gets Ramon Hernandez today after a good debut, and Begg is an excellent and occasionally under the radar turf conditioner.

The Grade 3 Bold Venture is an interesting contest. There appears to be plenty of speed signed up, so I will be watching the earlier races to see how the synth is playing today. Poulin in O T ran lights out last time in victory; that said, he looks like a prime bounce candidate at a potentially short price, and his two preps for this seem a bit slower than his works leading up to the last out victory. Western Whirl looks just as fast as that one early, and seems to run second and third more far more often than winning. Awesome Bourbon has two blazing works leading up to this, ran second to Poulin in O T two back, and could get the perfect setup at a fair price (15-1 morning line). Notorious Gangster could be the one getting last run, cutting back from a dull effort at 9 furlongs last time out. With Hernandez up, if the track is playing fair or favoring closers, this one could offer serious value at the 4-1 morning line.

In the Grade 2 Canadian Stakes, Lupa (Ire) ran too well to lose last out, and could be better on turf. However this is (ostensibly) a decent jump in class, and I would need far better than the 3-1 morning line. Proctor Street ran against a significant bias last out at Saratoga, and a return to her previous races could result in a convincing win at relatively short odds, as she figures to get a great trip and I have learned (both the easy and hard way) not to discount Walsh runners this year.

The $1 million dollar Kings Plate has a potential super filly looming over it in Luster. It is tough to fault her at short odds, however I might try to beat her. She shows 5 straight Beyer improvements, with a big new top of 97 last time. She projects to sit right off the pace and get first run. Dixie Law actually beat Luster three back at 7 furlongs, then saw her backside in the next two. Three 85/86 Beyers in a row could mean a top effort this time, and her trainer does exceptionally well in spots like this. Should Luster get too close to the early pace, she figures to have a say in the outcome. Her stablemate Highwaytothemoon comes in off two straight wins, pairing Beyers and retaining Hernandez. He showed the ability to rate kindly last out, though he projects to be closer to the pace today. Should the pace melt down completely, Don Ique will be running late. This one needs to improve significantly, yet has that classic 3 year old pattern of equaling his top speed figure last out. The price will be right.

Who do you like today?

It looks like the under card turf races might have been moved to the main track, at least according to Formulator, though there are no updates on the Saratoga/NYRA site yet. Irad also has several mounts. For some reason, I thought he was going to be out longer than this.

I'm going to give Antietam another shot in the 1st coming back after only a week. He showed little in the class hike, yet was flattered when the show runner in his two back win romped next out and there is an abundance of speed on paper. Can't discount Salming either who projects a bit closer to the pace and could get first run.

I will take a small shot with Santis in the 2nd, 12-1 on the morning line out of a damn who has thrown 2 of 3 first out winners. Mindfield, Saratoga Tea, and Top Thriller all look promising as well, so I will watch the double probables/will pays.

In the 6th, V Formation sold for $400k at the OBS spring sale and looks intriguing at 10-1 on the morning line, out of a damn that is 2 for 6 with first time starters with a perfect albeit slow work tab. (Edit: V Formation is scratched). The breeding is also there with Belle N Brooke, who shows a few short gaps in the works, and of course ~~(~~Edit: Belle N Brooke is scratched). Tumoohaat, the first offspring of the multiple Grade 1 winner Malathaat (and her sire was certainly no slouch either), who also shows a few gaps in the morning preparation.

The 8th looks on paper to be one of the most loaded 2 year old contests of the meet. Aside from Hooked, I cannot discount any one of these juvenile's chances. Damavand sits at 9/2 on the morning line and David Egan gets the call (a bit unusual for Pletcher, and Egan seems to be in town primarily to ride Ancient Egypt (Ire) later); he sold for a cool million at the Keeneland fall sale as a yearling and is out of a dam that has dropped two quality precocious runners out of two to race. That one's 415 Tomlinson at the distance is huge, yet McCoy, out of the hottest sire Vekoma, shows a 421; tough rail draw, and shows a month gap in the works a couple of months ago. (Edit: both are scratched) Q B Rocket went for $1.9 million as a yearling at the same sale as Damavand and shows a speedy and practically perfect work tab in preparation for this. Dallas Star might want turf down the road. Decimation is the only one with a race (or in this case two races) under her belt, and ran well enough in both efforts.

The Grade 1 Christophe Clement Turf is a competitive affair. Ancient Egypt (Ire) projects to lay close to the pace, though I am not sure if this one will get the ideal footing as he seems to prefer Good Firm courses across the pond. Still, European shippers continue to do very well in turf graded stakes, especially at Saratoga, though I am not sure the Timeform figures project this one into the upper echelon here. Ole Crazy Bone rode the bias to his Grade 2 win last out, and did also run well on a good turf course in his Kentucky Downs Grade 2 win. I'm not conviced that he will be up to the task. Tawny Port ran a somewhat distant second to Ole Crazy Bone at Kentucky Downs last year, and is another one that has yet to win a Grade 1. I don't think he beat much in his last out win. Program Trading (GB) looks like the class, having three Grade 1's under his belt. He projects to be closer to the pace this time, and I don't think he beat much in the Grade 2 United Nations last out. Survie (Ire) closed into a slow pace last out, coming home in :21.4. However, Prat sticks with Program Trading (GB) (not that Mannie is any slouch), not sure what she beat in her Grade 2, and it isn't clear to me that we can expect improvement from the last one. Minaret Station closed against the bias to finish 3rd by only half a length against Ole Crazy Bone last out. Three straight 95/96 Beyer races say improvement could be afoot, however I would need at least 9/2 to consider a win bet.

Who do you like today?

That was a fast race!

I am not happy about the DQ at all. Santana tried to make a hole where there wasn't one, clearly bumped Waralo twice, and then John the Beer Man came out at the end causing the bulk of the late trouble. To my eyes, it looked like Waralo was just reacting to getting bumped several times by Santana's horse. NYRA stewards are NOT my favorite.