r/horseracing

Interesting comment from Zac Purton ahead of Saturday:

“If you get a soft track in Australia, there’s no doubt they’re not running that time. So he’s untried on the ground.”

What we know so far:

• KYR has won 22 of 24 starts, nearly all on good tracks in Hong Kong
• He was beaten 0.18L by Ninja in a trial on a Soft 7 at Randwick on Tuesday (Hayes said beforehand he wanted to “dispel that rumour that he doesn’t go on the wet”)
• Forecast has a fair bit of rain for Randwick this week, including race day, though it could easily change
• His price has eased slightly, $1.30 → $1.35 on my bookie this arvo

And the obvious danger if it pours: Tempted, who Shane Dye says is 4 from 4 on rain-affected tracks, ran 2nd to him in last year’s Everest, and just won the Premiere by 3 lengths.

Counterpoint: he still won last year’s Everest despite Purton calling it his worst run of the season, and Hayes reckons he’s a better horse now.

So: is the wet a genuine worry, or are we overthinking a trial? If it’s a Soft 6 or worse on Saturday, who are you with?

My usual disclaimer applies, I don't pretend to be an expert or have any special insight other than juvenile racing is what I enjoy most & where I concentrate my attention. Plus, it's fun to keep track of them. Clearly everyone would have a different ranking, but here are mine after 10/4. Speed Figures are Equibase.

COLTS

1. Hughes-Into Mischief 4:4,0,0 105 Bob Baffert

2. Inshallah-Flightline 1:1,0,0 90 John Sadler

3. Salahudin 3:3,0,0 90 Bob Baffert

4. U.S.S Valor-War of Will 3:2,0,1 104 C. McGaughey

5. The Good Life 2:2,0,0 94 Brad Cox

6. How's Al Today-Munnings 4:3,0,1 100 Riley Mott

7. Scramjet-Uncle Mo 2:2,0,0 91 Linda Rice

8. Early Encore-Early Voting 3:2,1,0 97 Joe Sharp

9. Coach Pope-Tapit 3:1,2,0 98 Kenny McPeek

10. Booked-Yaupon 5:2,2,1 85 Ass

11. Caribbean Life-LIG 2:2,1,1,0 85 Will Walden

12. Balloteer-Early Voting 1:1,0,0 88 James DiVito

13. American History-Constitution 2:2,0,0 92 Pletcher

14. Captain Luke-Knicks Go 2:1,0,1 92 Ass

15. Twinkle Town-Take Charge Indy 2:2,0,0 91 McPeek

16. Gaudreau-Nyquist 2:1,1,0 86 Chad Brown

17. Oscar-Oscar Performance 2:1,0,1 96 Mark Casse

18. Imperial Honor-Honor A.P. 2:1,0,1 94 Bob Baffert

19. Kennyten-Drain the Clock 2:1,0,1 98 Vlad Cerin

20. QB Rocket-Gun Runner 2:1,0,1 90 Brad Cox

21. Observed-Mandaloun 2:2,0,0 87 John Thomas

22. Antivenom-Candy Ride 1:1,0,0 79 Mark Casse

23. Yacht Master-Into Mischief 1:1,0,0 87 Bob Baffert

24. Kingside-Upstart 1:1,0,0 94 Brenden Walsh

25. Agate-Karakontie 4:2,0,1 93 Kelsey Danner

Dropped Out: Harbaugh, Mid American, Jas, Mystrix

Next 10 Receiving Votes:

Wood Island, Mid American, Permanent Record, Card Man, Pharocity, Bold Leadership, Inalienable, End Rush, Sum of Success, Repo Man

FILLIES

1. Waggley-Life Is Good 4:3,0,0 90 Wesley Ward

2. Miss Monica-Early Voting 2:2,0,0 92 Bob Baffert

3. Emphatic-Nyquist 3:3,0,0 92 Brendan Walsh

4. Manuka Honey-Upstart 3:3,0,0 90 Brian Lynch

5. Holmby-Corniche 4:2,1,1 86 Bob Baffert

6. Summer Starlet-City of Light 3:2,1,0 94 Ass

7. Harper’s Corner-Speakers Corner 4:2,2,0 95 B. Lynch

8. Seneca Park-Gloden Pal 3:2,1,0 85 Dallas Stewart

9. Domestic Agenda-American Pharoah 2:2,0,0 83 Chad Brown

10. Voyager-Justify 4:2,2,0 90 Mark Casse

11. Stress Relief-Not This Time 3:2,0,0 85 K. LaRose

12. Up Before The Dawn-Karakontie 2:1,1,0 93 Danner

13. Epic Reign-Epicenter 2:1,1,0 85 Ass

14. De la Renta-Oscar Performance 3:2,1,0 88 K. Attard

15. Fanshell Beach-Corniche 4:2,0,0 90 Wesley Ward

16. Luminous Beauty-Flameaway 6:1,3,1 84 J. Antonucci

17. Brickyard Belle-Yaupon 2:2,0,0 87 Miguel Clement

18. Scarlett Begonia-Life is Good 3:1,1,1 90 Brad Cox

19. Crazy Hot Mess-Pinehurst 3:1,1,1 80 Peter Miller

20. Vanta-Greatest Honour 3:3,0,0 91 Jeff Mullins

21. Angel of Kirk-Yaupon 2:1,0,1 82 Brad Cox

22. Mrs. D-Bolt d'Oro 4:2,1,1 90 Steven Chircop

23. Go For Launch-Flightline 3:2,1,0 88 Kevin Attard

24. Serena's Ghost-Girvin 2:2,0,0 85 Joe Sharp

25.Ember Royale-Halladay 1:1,0,0 96 Jeff Bonde

Dropped Out: Forever Carina, Glycogen, Velora, Ghost Me, Cyber Spy, Libby Lloyd

Next 10 Receiving Votes: Ghost Me, Cyber Spy, Forecheck, Pay Monthly, Greatest Hits, Velora, D'muelh, Compromise, Embouteillage, Quattro Passi

Which, even though Barry Irwin hinted at skipping the Breeder's Cup after the race yesterday, it doesn't come as a surprise to me they decided to go ahead & take the rest of the year off. Admittedly, their goal is the Kentucky Derby & strategically the BC Juvenile does nothing to help that. Certainly not enough that it outweighs the risks, anyway, especially when you're looking ahead to May with one of the presumptive favorites.

Not only are you racing a full field that consists of the top of the crop, in USS Valor's case, add to that the stress of going both 2 turns & over a mile for the first time. Plus, he'd be shipping for the first time, which for one race simply doesn't make any sense. It'd be different if maybe they chose to stay in Kentucky for the winter, but Shug wants him in Florida. He indicated USS Valor will do his Derby prep at Gulfstream with eyes on the Holy Bull & Fountain of Youth.

I can tell you this right now, the 2yo crop at Gulfstream has been severely lacking this year. And, yes, good competition will of course ship for those races, but I think it gives him a distinct edge being the only quality horse with the "home" track advantage.

Hey all- wonder what others think about these topics.

Am I a sucker for singling summer starlet in doubles and big win bet? Guess is nah- she just got unfortunate result- heel clipped mid race and lost maybe 1 length. Looked like she was going by at end of race but didn’t.

Coach pope- was that ride by Jose Ortiz atrocious or am I crazy? What was the point of going and challenging qb rocket and setting 46.5 for a half. At the track- you could tell they were going to get tagged at the end. Idk maybe rate a tad off the lead horse- not every horse that has a semi loose lead goes on to win. Idk I really question the iq of these jocks sometimes: they don’t seem to be super bright, why are you challenging the only other horse that prolly can beat you straight up and allow another horse to just sit off and pounce? Maybe sit 2 lengths off? Run in the 1-2 path so you don’t have massive ground loss, make a move on the final
Turn and if your horse is good enough- you win and don’t slow down at the end after a suicidal dual.

Keeneland thoughts: first time visiting- I def recommend folks visit if they have never been. Def a much different vibe than the northeast. Tony’s > Jeff rubys for steaks. Recommend checking out stud farms and bourbon trail. Thought Lexington ky was very cool. Btw final note- found it odd they had so many Mexicans working at the track (wouldn’t be surprised if illegal immigrants). Find it odd that a red state would operate like that when they are so anti immigration.

Hello from Japan!
I’m a passionate horse racing fan from Japan, and I’m finally back!
My journey with horse racing began in 2021, when I discovered Titleholder through the Kikuka-sho. Not long after that, I fell in love with Do Deuce after his incredible victory in the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes.
I followed him through the highs and lows of his career, all the way to the 2024 Japan Cup. Do Deuce has always been my all-time favorite horse, and he is a huge part of why I fell in love with horse racing in the first place.
For a while, I stepped away from horse racing. But recently, I found myself falling in love with it all over again. It reminded me just how much I enjoy watching races, learning about horses, discovering racing history, and talking about all of it with other fans.
Unfortunately, I don’t have many people around me who I can talk to about horse racing, so I decided to come back here and hopefully connect with racing fans from all over the world.
I’d love to hear your thoughts, share our favorite races and horses, and talk about the moments that made us cry, cheer, or sent shivers down our spines.
Here are some of my personal favorite racehorses:
🇯🇵 Japanese Horses:
• Do Deuce ⇽ My all-time favorite horse!!!
• Durezza
• Tastiera
• Soul Rush
• Awesome Result
• Gold Ship
• Agnes Digital
• Sunday Silence
…and many more!
🇪🇺 European Horses:
• Hurricane Run
• Stradivarius
• Danedream
• Workforce
• Brigadier Gerard
• Dancing Brave
• Sea The Stars
• Camelot
• Calandagan
• Goliath
• Auguste Rodin
🇺🇸 American Horses:
• American Pharoah
• Zenyatta
• California Chrome
• Flightline
• Invasor
• Ruffian
🇭🇰 Hong Kong Horses:
• Golden Sixty
• Romantic Warrior
• Fairy King Prawn
I’m still learning a lot, especially when it comes to racing outside Japan, so I’d be really happy to learn from fans who know more about international racing than I do.
If you love horse racing too, please feel free to say hello!
I’d love to hear about your favorite horses, races, jockeys, and racing memories.
It’s good to be back. 🐎❤️

Wins the Champagne in a great performance

Hi! I’m taking my dad to Keeneland for his 60th birthday this Sunday. This will be our first time there, and while I’ve read plenty of past posts seeking advice, I’m still looking for more info on how I can make this the best outing possible. I got really good grandstand tickets at the finish line but also picked up a pair for the equestrian room as it seemed interesting. I’m only planning to keep one pair, and at this point, I’m at a loss for which to keep. My dad is indifferent, so my thought process is revolving around

• Access to betting windows, food, beer, bathrooms, etc. How long do lines get on Sundays in the general concourses? I’m sure we’ll want to bet as many races as possible so it’d be great to be able to get bets in and back to our seats quickly
• Track views - I’m sure the grandstand views will be awesome, but is it that big of an upgrade over GA?
• Quality of amenities in the Equestrian Room - Is the food as good as what we can get at the general concessions?

TIA, and would greatly appreciate any other tips!

He has a mount in the G2 Nearctic at Woodbine today, which is one of the more prestigious races of the year on the Woodbine calendar.

I was surprised to see his name, I used to watch him on grainy Mountaineer simulcasts like 25 years ago. I didn't realize what a long career he's had and that he's still riding. Looks like he's been riding at Hawthorne which is why I probably haven't seen his name in a while. I always think it's cool to see some of these older jockeys still riding.

10-3-26 Keeneland

Race 11

Race 10

Yes, I use my own tool for research and betting. Everyone knows they have to be selective with their bets. What tool do you use and why do you trust it?