u/WiseDan85

Hey all- wonder what others think about these topics.

Am I a sucker for singling summer starlet in doubles and big win bet? Guess is nah- she just got unfortunate result- heel clipped mid race and lost maybe 1 length. Looked like she was going by at end of race but didn’t.

Coach pope- was that ride by Jose Ortiz atrocious or am I crazy? What was the point of going and challenging qb rocket and setting 46.5 for a half. At the track- you could tell they were going to get tagged at the end. Idk maybe rate a tad off the lead horse- not every horse that has a semi loose lead goes on to win. Idk I really question the iq of these jocks sometimes: they don’t seem to be super bright, why are you challenging the only other horse that prolly can beat you straight up and allow another horse to just sit off and pounce? Maybe sit 2 lengths off? Run in the 1-2 path so you don’t have massive ground loss, make a move on the final
Turn and if your horse is good enough- you win and don’t slow down at the end after a suicidal dual.

Keeneland thoughts: first time visiting- I def recommend folks visit if they have never been. Def a much different vibe than the northeast. Tony’s > Jeff rubys for steaks. Recommend checking out stud farms and bourbon trail. Thought Lexington ky was very cool. Btw final note- found it odd they had so many Mexicans working at the track (wouldn’t be surprised if illegal immigrants). Find it odd that a red state would operate like that when they are so anti immigration.

Hey all, wonder if I’m loony here for liking this horse. Ok I really wanna hammer el grande o in the doubles, win, pick 3.

Why- he’s early speed. Speed has been crushing at Belmont lately. I think if somehow contrary thinking stubs his toe at the start and doesn’t break clean (unlikely to happen but you never know), maybe el grande o gets a nice “semi easy” lead and wires at a solid price. Also would say I think including contrary is a smart move also bc I feel Belmont has been super favorable lately to early speed. The speed figs on grande o haven’t been sexy but I think maybe if he freaks, he can hold on for a 1/2 length win against the closers/ pressers who should have trouble on a massive speed favoring track.

His odds also 15-1 ml. Even 10-1 those doubles will pay chunky to favorites in the next legs. I know it’s likely to be a losing bet but to me if he wins- you are getting massive value and paid very well. Thoughts?

I kinda like work grande o also in his early races. Horse should be on lead or pressing on the final turn. Think that is style you want at Belmont. Probably a loony thought but wanna hear what others say.

Anyone have success stories or information on what to do/ check out in Playa Del Carmen?

I’m going for like 10 days in 2 months. Went there a few years back to meet a girl I met in Vegas. Hung with her and fooled around a lot- was also on the apps but didn’t try to meet up with chicks bc I was with her- even had a girl on bumble say she would be down for a 3some but didn’t ask this chick I was with bc she liked me. She actually got mad at me for being on apps lol but we weren’t dating at the time so I didn’t think it was off limits.

Got on the apps to check it out and bumble/ tinder make it seem so easy. Got so many beautiful matches: should I just set up dinner dates and try to go for one night closes or is that too risky? I just get skeeved out from Colombia stories I hear about online dating.

Might also hit up night clubs when there- went out before with chick and the dance clubs are fire there. Is it that easy to just meet girls? I typically do well when I go to clubs in say nyc/ Boston but do poorly in middle sized America areas.

The dating app scene is nuts also. Women will message me and they are very attractive. In northeast US, women don’t typically message first and most women don’t give me time of day (I might look like a fuck boy a tad in my pics to white women/ I’ve been told). Just find it odd I can’t even get average or below average women liking me on apps in US in small mid sized cities ( I do well in bigger cities). I use travel mode to Mexico PDC and boy all the women are attractive and I get many matches and convos going. (Btw I understand the dynamics of them thinking white men are rich/ can bring them a better life, etc)

While I would never bet this pool bc you lose if your horse doesn’t make the starting gate- anyone find it odd magnitude is down to 17-1?

Not sure what the pace scenario will be for the race as that is key but I feel magnitude is just a horse that doesn’t like Saratoga and lost badly bc of that. Throw that horse back into a race at Kentucky and see what happens. I assume the form will improve. Feel like he would be a must use in wagers in the classic unless you get some speedballs in the race or a lot of pace.

Sov is most likely winner if pace is there but even him- I would fade most likely if the favorite because his races earlier this year were kinda blah. This 3 year old crop has no chance and I hope they somehow take money. Maybe travers winner has a chance but everyone else- no way. Renegade/ golden tempo are never beating sov at closing.

If I can get magnitude at 15 to 20-1 on BC classic day, I will line up to hammer a win bet on him.

Felt like ranting here- anyone here play tournaments and have any links to videos or discussion over strategy? I know strategy can involve many different routes but was looking at result of people who did well in one I played- found it odd folks were placing show bets and then saving up to make a big wager on a play they like that would yield money.

I played the Saratoga summer event on TS yesterday and just found it may have been a bad idea. $3500, basically gotta turn 2.5k bankroll into 15k+ to have a chance. I see people in there (horse owner im guessing) that probably has the net worth where 2.5k isn’t a drop in the bucket so they can just fire like crazy: also makes you question if they have more insider information on the game with who to bet (aka I feel like almost anyone playing a 3.5k tourny is going to be sharper than your average bettor).

I also played this tourny while at the track which was prolly a terrible idea. Just find this type of tourny kinda rough bc you gotta go all in with a play you like that is prolly going to pay 3-1 or more (double, exacta, win, etc) and then prolly hit another big score to have a chance. Looked at the betting strategy of top 10 and was like wow- maybe should have researched more.

Btw for the lols- I hit a big win wager at Saratoga with my last 500 which also included a double. Wanna say I had 1600 and then just went all in with a big double play using AG bullet as a key in the leg before and after. AG bullet ran 2nd and just tired after chasing a leader lol. Kinda liked the strategy but felt it also was risky- maybe should have been smarter and bet no early toga races bc those were up in the air. I faded foxiest in the msw which was smart (big favorite, unraced). Also tried to fade Englishman lol. Used the 2 and 5 in doubles bc I felt it would produce value if Englishman stubbed his toe. Too much crazy stuff happens at Saratoga to big favorites so I’m like why not use the 2 most
Logicals behind him- they fit on speed figs easily. Englishman freaks: as a hedge to this in my personal account- I just singled Englishman on a few p6 tickets

Who you got in the travers? I think it’s a super tough race to pick a winner for. I think I like renegade or sea strike.

Could see napoleon solo winning, the Haskell winner, maybe the cox lightly raced horse, and golden tempo.

I’m going to fade golden tempo again- missed training and a planned race. Think he loses sooner or later bc I just feel he isn’t the real deal. However he keeps proving me wrong lol. I would rather play a sea strike or napoleon solo than golden tempo. Think an E or E/P horse is going to win a big 3 year old race sooner or later.

Renegade- I hope he doesn’t go off as favorite but think he will sadly. His Jim dandy was impressive. Think Irad rode him so well and let him patiently bide his time before he made his move. I’m hoping gafflione doesn’t botch the ride: a little worried bc u would rather see Irad on the horse bc you know he prolly doesn’t mess up the timing.

Hey all, do you ever stop messaging someone bc they consistently take a while to message back?

I’m a guy- I’ve kinda ghosted women on apps bc they take far too long to reply in say 3 different messages. Is this wrong and wonder if others do
The same: both men and women?

Obviously I can bypass the length if they actually add depth in reply to the convo but if they just send lazy texts and take say 2 days to reply- I kinda stop.

Wonder if this is normal? I’ve found I tend to do best with women that are willing to be prompt about replying and show “clear” interest. Sometimes I can just tell she’s just replying to reply and not putting much effort into convo so I’ll just stop sending bc it seems pointless.

Hey anyone here play handicapping contests etc? They seem kinda cool- see TwinSpires and NYRAbets offers them.

It’s cool generally half the buying goes to prize pool while other half to bankroll. Also like that they give seats to bcbc and Kentucky derby challenge which seems like a cool incentive.

Problem- I’m guessing when you play these- you are going against sharp horse handicappers and not the average run of the mill $2-20 bettor that doesn’t really understand the game. Also you kinda have to go with a boom/ bust approach to win or finish in top spots. It’s a cool format but it seems like it would be annoying to have to fire at improbable longshots at end of a bad day if you want a chance to win or just wave the white flag and bet more logical to just get some $ back.

Any opinions on contests? Bcbc and kd challenge seem awesome but they are also expensive to buy into and it seems unlikely one would win a
Seat with some of the events that offer seats- it always seems like you gotta beat a field of like 30-40 just for 1 seat to be added which is low probability to get said seat

Why have we not heard more on this story? Off duty firefighter runs over a lady on his way to a volunteer call.

The news said investigation would take a month. Have heard nothing about it. She’s in a coma at the hospital at the start: I assume it’s terrible based on what the injuries were. In the article no skid marks were in the road. How long does it take to figure out a young kid was speeding and not paying attention: then hits a poor older lady that is just out and about exercising?

Any rumors or speculation on this? While we need to wait for the investigation… something tells me he’s toast and probably didn’t see her or was speeding. Just find it really odd we have heard crickets regarding this topic. Imagine if this happened to your mother or grandmother.

Anyone have advice for visiting Keeneland? It’s a bucket list item for me because it has some of my
Favorite things: horse racing and whiskey!

I’m planning for opening weekend of the fall meet to bet Friday and Saturday. Any advice on the following topics:

Restaurants- I’ve seen bbq is good and saw vid about it regarding Keeneland. Also Jeff ruby is top notch steakhouse? I want to visit bc it looks amazing but any other recommendations for good food?

Seating- anyone have advice for seats at keen? I normally like the clubhouse at Saratoga. I would guess grandstand seats near finish line would
Be best bang for the buck.

Cigar lounges- any advice on good ones in Lexington ky?

Any other advice for the trip? I plan to visit a stud farm (thinking goldophin… maybe another big name
Stud farm). Also might do a whiskey tour at four roses or woodford. Any other fun things to do in Lexington? Maybe check out Louisville or something else

Hey who does everyone like this weekend in big races at toga?

The Whitney and fourstardave are loaded fields.

Whitney- magnitude if sloppy and maybe sov if track is ok and not totally against back speed. I feel the pace will be hot and could set up for sov.

Fourstardave- idk how you go against deterministic. His class is insane and has won 5 tough races in a row. The pace looks hot which I would say doesn’t favor him, rhetorical, and Zulu kingdom. Hard to say bc track seems it will be wet and a lot of cut in grass. Could see it being a tough race to cap- honestly think anyone could be good- the Mott horse could get a favorable pace set up. So many good horses in this race. Rhetorical, deterministic, Zulu kingdom are all really good. Lagynos would be the only fade for me bc I feel he hasn’t beaten any really top turf horses but who knows if the surface is soft. Think deterministic is most likely winner but the pace will be super swift most likely. He def wins if they run normal and pace isn’t too hot and he fires if you ask me bc he has won against similar
Tough horses.

Hey all, I’ll be vague here with figs but wonder if im right in my thinking. I want to retire at say 55-56 bc I hate my job. Would like to focus on my hobbies / maybe work a small part time gig like drive for uber/ etc.

I’m 37, Ok let’s say I make 100k a year (I make a tad more). I have 3x my salary in 401k, have about .6x in pension that is a cash balance plan. Have about 30k in a Roth but expect that to be used for my first house.

Pension- companies puts 6-8% of my pay into account. It earns interest each money- making $230+ a month now, I max out at 8% per week put away by company when i work for company for 20years (wanna say I’m at 12 years with company).

Get a 3.5% 401k match, currently put away 8% a week, going to bump that to 12% next year, then going to increase 1% each year when I get my yearly raise. I just got a job promotion so I’m going to make about 140% of my current pay in 4-5 years due to pay scale.

When I run numbers, I should easily hit like 2mill + based on expected 8% return (I assume I could hit 9-12% return if lucky with market). I’m currently in 100% stocks with no bonds. Maybe go more bonds when I get closer to retirement age but wanna stick to 100% stock as long as possible.

Final Q- would a 5-6% withdrawal per year in retirement be ok? I assume yes. I don’t expect to live too long. Maybe 70-85 if I’m lucky (I have bad life habits and family health history hasn’t been the best- grandparents on one side died 60 and under). My guess- if I can make say 5-7% per year with a safe portfolio, maybe we lose 15% in a year in a worst case scenario recession. Don’t see how I could run out of money. Even 25-30 years, we make 6% a year on account, we withdraw 5-6% a year, maybe we work a small low stress part time job like uber when we want to just to stay busy: I just don’t see how I could run out of money or even come close.

Hey all, anyone here a frequent pick 5 player? I play them- have had some big success but trying to be smarter with ticket construction.

Anyone feel that going cheap on p5s can be a massive flaw? I’ve kinda leaned toward throwing on extra horses on an unsure leg as I look at it like this: if you wanna hit a big payout- you gotta eliminate a lot of tickets and try to fade chalk if possible. I’ll typically try to go with a single or multiple shallow legs to keep ticket cost down.

I’m still of the mindset if you wanna hit a 5figure ticket, you kinda need to spend $100+ and prolly 200-300 at times during tough meets like Keeneland, Saratoga, CD when they have big fields etc

I tend to kick myself when I go 4/5 and didn’t spend say an extra $30-100 to include extra horses in a leg. On derby day- I went 4/5 in the dirt pick5. Thought about including golden tempo and a few extra horses but didn’t bc I wanted to keep ticket cost down- might have been a $200ish ticket that could have been 300-400 if I went bigger during the derby ( :( ). The reason I get bothered- I don’t mind losing the money but try to avoid horses I don’t think can win lol. Not including golden tempo even tho a friend brought using him up really irritated me bc it’s the difference between a 20k+ score and a losing $300 (let’s say).

Wonder if others feel same? Love pick 5s, however I really feel you gotta get prices if you are going to go short in 1-2 legs with chalky picks because p5s only pay well when most of the field is elimiated: for example when you beat a 4/5 or heavy favorite in multiple legs etc

Hey all, had my therapist reschedule 2 recent meetings? Last one, she messages me 15 minutes before my telehealth appt and says she is busy or had something come up/ we are on in 2 weeks. She did this before saying she was sick/ that’s ok and all but like what is the point? This has been over like a 3-4 week span which seems like far too much.

I feel we aren’t making progress also. Not saying it’s her fault but I really don’t understand how therapy is helpful. Feel we aren’t a match. I just tend to think what we talk about and questions she asks- aren’t really helpful. I had a therapist in the past that was an older man and I always left appointments feeling better bc he would ask good questions etc. maybe it’s just telehealth / younger therapist but I just feel I get nothing out of it and I dread going to meetings bc I feel we have nothing to discuss / she doesn’t really ask good questions.

Btw I didn’t really go into clear description. I still feel I kinda got given to her bc my former therapist was pregnant and handing off her clients to people in the practice that needed folks.

Hey all, have a stupid question which I understand why it is but just wondering:

Why do so many people take long vacations during the summer? I’m American, northeast,etc- I like to take my vacations during the winter months (November-March) bc I can go somewhere else with nice weather and enjoy nice weather + outdoor activities etc.

I don’t see the point of traveling when the weather is nice and I can enjoy outdoor activities in my general area- if I need to get out- travel for a weekend get away or long weekend etc.

Just wondering why people take time off when weather is nice. I’m northeast so different than other folks- also I don’t travel a ton nor is it a big hobbie. I can’t see traveling to say a beach far away or foreign country when the weather is nice and I can enjoy it where I currently am. Now winter- I can see why folks would travel to get out of the cold but during summer- it baffles me. Now if you have 6+ weeks of vacation a year/ a lot of money- I get it. Just my northeast though process- def get why one would travel to even in summer but just don’t understand why you wouldn’t lean toward end of year and early year travel when weather is blah and can’t get out

What do you think online poker would be like if we still had full tilt, poker stars, etc in the US with ROW pools?

How big would tournies be player wise? Would it be better than 2007-2010 days? Would it still be extremely profitable? My take is yes the low stakes would be but mid to high would be difficult. Mid stakes would probably be much tougher but still beatable.

Would we have the insane volume of games like we did back then? Sit n goes filled constantly if you played prime hours.

This is an off topic quick question kinda. So like for entry level investment banker workers- you hear they work crazy hours. 15ish hrs sometimes a day.

Are they just goofing around on computer for parts of their day or taking long lunches etc? No way I can see someone actually doing 15 hrs of work- I assume there is a ton of down time where they just putz around. Just wondering- I assume long hours- but a lot of time is just wasted, in meetings where nothing is produced per se, etc. just wondering why it’s like for people in the field.

Hey all, I was just wondering how effective lessons are for golf and does it take a lot of them + a lot of money to become say solid (I would say solid as bogey golf with some pars + a few double and triple bogeys)- solid golf is getting ball in play constantly high % of time, no duffs etc.

I played golf for say 3-4 years around high school
Age. Can still swing well but just haven’t played for 5+ years. Went to driving range yesterday and hit pw 120-170 yards (was surprised i got to 170ish with a PW) after not swinging a club for 5 years. Not straight tho, some really bad shots like ones that go 30 yards but I would
Say 60%+ were solid 100+ yards but just not all straight.

I’ve never had a lesson. Should I get them if I don’t want to spend say 1500+ to get to a decent level. My grip is prolly not correct- I don’t overlap pinky. My swing is “ok” but feel I have trouble with backswing pace (take it back too fast).

At my best- I was probably like a 90-100 round person (on a course that wouldn’t be considered difficult) - just had trouble where not all balls in play- duffs with driver sometimes, mulligan once in a while etc. to me- bogey golf would be awesome. Do
I do lessons or nah?

Golf scares me bc I feel one needs to play often like 1-3 times a week, spend a lot of money for each round, prolly do lessons, to play at a solid level and not be “rusty”. To me golf isn’t enjoyable if I can never make par which is a low level. Any thoughts on topic?

Hey all, all speculation here but does the US government actually know what is going on with all of this UAP activity?

It’s odd- I would guess yes the government knows and will not disclose because it goes against religion etc and will shock folks. But do they actually know- would this info not somehow get out bc let’s be honest- folks can’t keep secrets. All it takes is one loose lips person to tell someone, someone posts on Reddit or another forum- stuff comes out or people have theories.

I can’t even find a good theory on what is happening? People can’t even post good logical theories to what this is or I can find good guesses as to what uap are over the ocean etc?

My guess- there is no god. Sorry to my religious folks- god is made up and like Santa Claus: no proof of it so why would we believe in something where we have no clear proof of existence. Releasing this info will prove that. I would say it’s more likely we live in some sort of simulation over there being an actual god. Uap prolly come from the ocean- probably studying us / have an interest in our military/ weapons and idk know why- maybe so we don’t blow ourselves up. Also would not be surprised if there are some how multiple dimensions- maybe they have different physics than us and are clearly much more technologically advanced than us. Maybe they can slow down time so what we see looks fast but they are actually just messing with time dynamics.

And as I say all of this? Maybe the US is throwing up a smokescreen and just has advanced tech while trying to hide capabilities to foreign adversaries (I would say this is unlikely but who knows).

Finally- I think it’s clearly foolish to think we are the only living beings in the universe. The universe is so so damn old- we can’t even quantify how old it is. We are all basically ants and just live and die while people will still be born and civilization will continue for thousands of years after our deaths. 1000 years in our time is comically small when you compare it to the age of the universe. Wish the government would just be more transparent and say what it knows of this phenomenon bc it’s kinda important for the public to know what is going on.

Hey all, just wondering if anyone like me feels their standards are too high which is leading to a failure in dating? I know that if I lowered my standards-
I would get more dates however I feel it would be a waste of money to do so many dates without much potential for LT.

Met my last gf on hinge, felt she was def a keeper type but our relationship failed due to something’s j didn’t handle well.

After this, dating has been kinda rough- have trouble getting dates + just find a lot of women in my area just don’t have similar interests to me so I don’t try to force going on dates with folks that I didn’t see any potential for vibing. Just wondering if anyone else feels they may have standards that are too high?

Im an older 30year old male (def not a good thing) as im trying to date 28-35 no kids women. Think im decent looking (not going to post profile), and have solid style (may be too fashionable for men in my area as its a tad conservative upstate ny)/
Solid career. Have found dating rough and have been told I should move to a big city but I have a solid career and kinda stuck where I’m living due to my job. Just wondering if any others question whether they might have standards that are too high which lead to lower # of dates and more failure.

I tend to not get a ton of dates even when messaging women. I’m fairly passive and feel if women aren’t showing much interest in app messaging- I kinda just stop talking to them. I like to go for asking for a date early if we message a lot bc I tend to think women get hit up so much so don’t want to waste time to just let them go no talk