u/Key-Selection8646

The 4% rule of thumb says if you have 25 times your living expenses saved you have over a 90% success rate of not running out of money over a 30 year retirement.

I've been able to get to a 89% success rate with a 1m portfolio in super at age 60, using a 8% withdrawal (80K) for the first 10 years (adjusted for inflation), then 5% withdrawal (50K) from age 70 with the partial age pension kicking in from 67.

This is assuming:

• Inflation of 2.5% with a standard deviation of 1.5%
• Interest rates of 5% with σ 2%
• Super is in balanced at 6.5% growth with σ 7%
• Using the Asset Test (Homeowner) for the age pension
• Spare cash is added to the interest account
• Minimum drawdowns from super
• Lump sum withdrawals from super to fund the expenses early on

It's been quite fascinating to explore.