
The 4% rule doesn't make much sense in Australia
The 4% rule of thumb says if you have 25 times your living expenses saved you have over a 90% success rate of not running out of money over a 30 year retirement.
I've been able to get to a 89% success rate with a 1m portfolio in super at age 60, using a 8% withdrawal (80K) for the first 10 years (adjusted for inflation), then 5% withdrawal (50K) from age 70 with the partial age pension kicking in from 67.
This is assuming:
- Inflation of 2.5% with a standard deviation of 1.5%
- Interest rates of 5% with σ 2%
- Super is in balanced at 6.5% growth with σ 7%
- Using the Asset Test (Homeowner) for the age pension
- Spare cash is added to the interest account
- Minimum drawdowns from super
- Lump sum withdrawals from super to fund the expenses early on
It's been quite fascinating to explore.