What are the actual odds of getting what you want in DIV2?

What are the actual odds of getting what you want in DIV2?

I was trying to figure out what the base odds were for gear to drop exactly how you want it to drop, it was quickly overwhelming because there are too many variables to deal with IMO. So I wanted to make it a little easier:

What the actual odds of getting a MK46 with:

LMG DMG, DTOC and, DTA with Frenzy.

But then to take that base number and apply that to get the odds of that dropping, prototyped in a T10.

In conclusion, when you consider the attributes, talents, augments and quality of the roll IE 15% LMG DM or 22.5% LMG DMG, how hard is it really? And how does our experience, in game compare to the number we come up with?

My estimation for a PROTOTYPE MK46 with all the desired rolls with talent, with at least 85% to max rolls would be 1 in 782 drops.

I will post some of, but not all the data I was using to create this pivot table below. There are just too many caveats to grind this out for me.

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ATTRIBUTES

Damage to Targets Out of Cover

Damage to Armor

Health Damage

Critical Hit Chance

Critical Hit Damage

Headshot Damage

Rate of Fire

Magazine Size

Reload Speed

Accuracy

Stability

Optimal Range

Swap Speed

PROPRIETARY TALENTS (non exotic)

Restricted to Rifles

Boomerang

Lucky Shot

Behind You

Restricted to Shotguns

Pummel

Restricted to LMGs

Frenzy

Behind You

Restricted to SMGs

Unwavering

Restricted to Marksman Rifles

Naked

First Blood

Behind You

Behind You is Restricted to long/mid-range classes (ARs, LMGs, Rifles, Marksman Rifles); cannot be rolled on SMGs, Shotguns, or Pistols.

Sledgehammer

Cannot be rolled on Marksman Rifles or Pistols

LOCKED ATTRIBUTES

Assault Rifles

Assault Rifle Damage & Damage to Health

SMGs

SMG Damage

Critical Hit Chance

Light Machine Guns (LMGs)

LMG Damage

Damage to Targets Out of Cover

Shotguns

Shotgun Damage

Damage to Armor

Rifles

Rifle Damage

Critical Hit Damage

MMR

Marksman Rifle Damage

Headshot Damage

Pistols

Pistol Damage

None

TALENTS

Close & Personal

Eyeball

Fast Hands

Future Perfect

In Sync

Ignited

Insulated

Killer

Measured

On Empty

Optimist

Overwhelm

Outsider

Overflowing

Perpetuation

Preservation

Ranger

Reformation

Sadist

Spike

Strained

Steady Hands

Synchronized

Vindictive

u/KeyRun1199 — 4 days ago
▲ 49 r/the_division_2+1 crossposts

Proto-Problem & Solution

I am not concerned with the exact economy, we just need something else to spend protype cores on.

Things that exacerbate this issue:

  1. Not all weapons and gear we want are in the prototype loot pools and if they are, there are many I have never seen before.

EXAMPLES

  • The Gift (Providence Named Backpack)
  • Matador (Walker, Harris & Co. Named Backpack)
  • Dark Winter (Vector SMG)
  • Rock n' Roll (ACS-12 Shotgun)
  • Emperor's Guard (Murakami Named Kneepads)
  • The Hollow Man (Yaahl Gear Named Mask)
  • The Handbasket
  • Harvest

2. If you cant get gear you want, there is nothing to enhance or use prototype cores on.

RNG for anything that is META has been shadow NERFED. You cannot convince me otherwise. I can craft random LMGs at the crafting station and get 2 or 3 LMG's with Frenzy no problem. My squad ran Art Museum for 8 hour on LMG day and in total I we got 2 LMG's with Frenzy. If Frenzy sucked and no one wanted it, it would be the most common LMG talent roll in the game.

The DEVs have 1 BILLION % tweaked the odds of meta gear and rolls. For example, when HOT SHOT was TL at DCD, I ran the hell out of that on T10 for hours and I could not get any gear with Headshot on it.

Oddly, when I ran Breaking Point a few days later, getting Head Shot damage was super easy, but no one uses Breaking Point. And I don't want the 1% of you nerds that use Breaking Point to get all wild in the comments. I am saying that the majority of players that use 1 shot builds for MMR's, do NOT use Breaking Point and it coincidentally easy to get HS DMG on that gear.

3. Because we cant optimize or recalibrate proto gear, 99% of all prototype drops are trash so they become cores.

Many drops for me would be best in slot if we could change one thing but we cant. So once you pay for the augments you want and you achieve Rank 10, there is nothing left to do with the cores.

DEVS LISTEN:

Make TL on Weekends META gear, make its Striker Saturday and Tipping Scales on Sunday. Throw in healer builds on the same days as dps builds to force players to choose. (I just used these gear sets as best examples)

In closing:

  1. Allow us to exchange prototype cores for tokens
  2. Allow us to AT LEAST re-roll talents on our items using cores (Make it expensive AF, just make it)
  3. Rework the Targeted Loot system (people look at the TL and don't even bother logging on when its bad and this is not great for the game. Run Strikers this Saturday and compare the peak player numbers to last Saturday.
  4. Intentionally set TL for escalations to something people want on the weekends, when people have the most time to actually farm it. (you'd make more money doing this via micro transactions)
  5. Random Idea: Allow us to choose between two different TL Pools per mission, the same way we do in Countdown and Retaliations... But have it limited to 2, with each mission being different. That doubles the ODDS of us being able to farm something that can actually help us.
u/KeyRun1199 — 6 days ago
▲ 261 r/Division2

THEY FINALLY DID IT!!!!!!!!!!!

I shouldn't be this happy over something so small and trivial but I am.

u/KeyRun1199 — 7 days ago
▲ 101 r/Division2

6-30-26 DZ PVE Patch Notes

These are good changes in my opinion. I think the most important one for me was being able to see everyone in the DZ so you can play together. Maybe that will come on another update.

u/KeyRun1199 — 7 days ago
▲ 106 r/Division2

PVE DZ Fixes

Please add your own, the DEVS will be doing a live stream tomorrow.

u/KeyRun1199 — 11 days ago
▲ 100 r/Division2

Best exotic farm since the launch of the game x2 right now

I try so hard to talk sense into the folks in the DZ, to band together and work as a team but rarely do they listen. But when they do, its total fire. Sunday I was able to get 12 players to loop the DZ together and call 12 extractions, spawning 4 hunters per extraction called using a cycle.

But now this cycle is more important than ever. Because right now, we get double crafting materials for expertise including exotic components.

EXOTIC DROP RATES: (HEROIC)

DZ chests have a 48%

Bosses have a 40%

Hunter have a 100%

THE CYCLE

  • 12 AGENTS FARM TOGETHER
  • 12 AGENTS EXTRACT TOGETHER (once everyone has a stabilization agent)
  • CALL EXRACTION
  • KILL 4 HUNTERS
  • GRAB YOUR 8 EXOTIC COMPONENTS (8 for the next 6 days 4 after the event ends)
  • **Leave 1 extractable item from the Hunters on the ground, so you can call an extraction**
  • EXTRACT or let lobby know, you will call the next EXTRACTION
  • CALL EXTRACTION
  • KILL 4 MORE HUNTERS
  • RINSE AND REPEAT UNTIL YOU CANT

WHY DO I WANT TO PLAY WITH OTHER TEAMS?

  • YOU will avoid TRAILING. Trailing is when you are running to and attempting to hit Landmarks that have already been hit. When you trail, you will find yourself ALWAYS behind, never opening chests and always missing the extractions because you are alone or with your group missing the boat.
  • When you group as 8 or 12 players, you will almost NEVER DIE, even if you are playing with multiple greedy pricks, someone out of the 8-12 players will pick you up.
  • You will get exotics while you farm cannisters and the stabilization agent.

THE MATH

  • 1st Extraction = 4 Hunters
  • During Event 4 Hunters = 8 Exotic components
  • 12 Players with stabilization agent means you can spawn 48 Hunters in total
  • 48 Hunters means you WILL get 96 EXOTIC COMPONENTS ****MINIMUM*****

IM NOT DONE, THERE IS MORE:

During the Expertise event, for the next week you will get double all resources used in the expertise system. This includes DZ Resources.

At the PVP DZ VENDOR, there is an Exotic Cache that normally sells 4 components for 120 DZ Resources. During the event you get 8 exotic components.

When you accept the DZ Resources from the Mailbox after extraction, the game will double the count. You have a hard cap of 999 in your inventory but you can have many in your "special deliveries" section of your Mailbox. And the coins will combine and stack in groups of 100 under certain circumstances.

THE MATH

999/120 = 8 x 8 = 64 exotic components, on top of the 96 you got from the HUNTER FARM

GRAND TOTAL: MINIMUM OF

160 in 30 MIN if you are fast

160 in 60 MIN if your slow

Your damage, armor, modifiers, how many friends you have, the IQ of the players around you and ability to communicate and organize dictate speed. Use Discord - Go to GCROCK, the best place in DIVISION 2 to meet good people, knowledgeable people. Some of them can get a little "elitist" or sound that way if you are an asshole, suffer from Dunning Kruger, or just like to rage bait and argue. There are two different GROCK discords, I dont have access to the right one at this very moment but I will attempt to link it asap.

Last thing Agents.... This is a good, fun and overly effective farm. My spider sense tells me it will be nerfed for those reasons. Get it while you can.

u/KeyRun1199 — 13 days ago

Augment Level Up Cheat Sheet

I enjoy making these types of info-graphics, I use them and post them in discords. I figured I would share with you guys in case this helps anyone. Enjoy!

u/KeyRun1199 — 17 days ago

Backpack Trophy Idea

Commendation: Solo Over Achiever

Complete all Legendary Strongholds on Legendary difficulty SOLO.

The trophy is solid gold, all the rings rotate constantly (think Game of Thrones Intro) The skull is solid Platinum with Topaz Eyes that glow SHD Orange. At night the intensity of the glow increases.

u/KeyRun1199 — 19 days ago

IDEA: Complete all strongholds on Legendary difficulty SOLO.

Commendation: Complete all strongholds on Legendary difficulty SOLO.

Award: "Over Achiever" Backpack Trophy

The gold rings will rotate and spin while the trophy swings with movement. The eyes on the pure platinum skull will glow, very bright especially at night.

Special Agent VFX for Trophy:

This is not an ordinary backpack trophy, any knocked agent with this trophy equipped will cause the agent to glow and a beam of light will shine from the agents watch, alerting all agents that he/she is in need of help.

u/KeyRun1199 — 20 days ago
▲ 255 r/the_division_2+1 crossposts

New Incursion coming this season!!!

New Incursion content coming soon is very exciting. I am curious as to what gear or weapon they will lock behind it to drive the grind. Speed runners, take your marks!!!

u/KeyRun1199 — 21 days ago
▲ 446 r/the_division_2+1 crossposts

Season 2: "INTO THE DARK" starts tomorrow!!!

I am looking forward to this new season, especially to test out Caduceus and the new Nurse's Exotic knee pads with 40% Hazzard Protection.

u/KeyRun1199 — 21 days ago

How damage numbers actually work in Division 2 and Escalations - Updated: v02

After reading through the comments on my last post, I realized my original graphic wasn't conveying what I wanted it to, so I went back to the drawing board and made this new graphic. I hope this helps everyone. If you like my work, please show a little love, it motivates me to keep doing stuff like this.

u/KeyRun1199 — 26 days ago

How Damage Numbers Actually work in DIV2

I created this to help everyone understand the negative damage numbers a little better, many people think the counter starts at zero once you hit the cap but that's not the case. The game will always give the person with the highest damage the Orange Star. You can loop up to 3 times from what I have been told, not sure what happens after that, maybe you get expertise level 500 and Thor's Hammer that does 50B crits to all enemies within 200M. I'm honestly not sure.

u/KeyRun1199 — 26 days ago

Div2's Escalations Tokens Solution!!!

Over the weekend a DIV2 Dev responded to a player’s feedback in an 8-part message about Escalations, so I started to think about it, and I came up with a solution. I have DM’ed the DEV with my idea, how much of a difference it makes I do not know but I wanted to share it with the group and get feedback. Share with me things you would change and the things you like.

TLDR:

Problem: Escalation Token System is unbalanced

Solution: Create an extended area that is part of BOO, where we go to pay for the Tier of Escalation that we want to play. Once the desired Escalation Tier is paid for the player is now eligible to solo or enter the matchmaking pool for that Tier.

Outcome: This ultimately divides the risk and responsibility of cost amongst all players evenly. It does not prevent trolls or saboteurs from being dicks.

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Long Version:

 The Base of Operations in Washington DC could use some adjustments, instead of a wall with a translucent menu that glitches out all the time how about a small hallway and at the end of that hallway is a door, a door we all recognize. I chose this door because it’s a door that every agent from DIV1 and in DIV2 respects. A door that just by looking at it, says “Its time to lock in”. In some cases, unfortunately, some players internal monologue is “time to activate Nemisis.exe” we don’t care about them, but I digress.

You walk up to the door, you open it and walk in. Inside you see the D1 DZ Safehouse, upgraded and modernized. There are 4 walls and an exit on the other side. A stash box and an vendor at a table.

 Fun Stuff

There are multiple voice lines from this vendor depending on the situation.

Just walking in, the vendor is singing Bodies to himself by Drowning Pool, listening to it on his mp3 player. You walk up and can vaguely hear the music. (Not enough to be sued, just to recognize it and get it in our head)

You open the menu.

In the menu, select and pay for the Tier you want to play.

If you select T0, the vendor looks up at you and shakes his head and chuckles, looks you up and down and says, “Ah, makes sense”

If you select a T10, you can hear the music change to “Another one bites the dust” and the NPC opens a box and pulls out a body bag and hangs it up behind him.

- This could be 5000-character rabbit hole, you guys just use your imaginations.

 

Back to main story

Once you pay for the Tier of Escalation you want where the hallway leads to the door, on the other side is a translucent screen hovering in the doorway. This screen shows you the Tier you bought and has a matchmaking button. The matchmaking button only works if you have paid the vendor. You can select a mission on this screen, and it will prioritize that mission but not guarantee it.

If you are invited: You will get an accept or decline message with the Mission preference of the party leader.

If you become the host: It’s business as usual.

 There will be a screen that everyone is looking at, Tier, Mission and a ready up option. If someone leaves after readying up, they have 1 min to return to the game. If they do not, the Matchmaking button will appear for the group leader. Its up to the group leader to wait for the person to come back or to match-make. If a random player backfills the slot, he does not have to pay to join and the person that paid to play forfeits those tokens. Players can be invited to backfill at no cost to them.

More Fun Stuff

When you win or lose the mission, your group respawns in the safehouse. (This is just something I was tossing out there because I wanted the player base to interact more with the leaderboard and the vendor.)

Maybe the vendor glazes you for winning maybe he gives you a fist bump for trying or maybe he suggests buying a Protype Cache, so you do better next time.

More about this new Escalations vendor area:

In the room will be multiple screens with information on them.

Screen 1: Shows all the Missions, costs and rewards

Screen 2: Targeted Loot and drop chances.

Screen 3: Mutators and what they do

Screen 4: Top 3 All time leaderboard for each Mission, this menu will be interactive so you can see player names and times. Your team’s official time will be posted to this board and your rank displayed.

Screen 5: Augment Board – shows all augments what they do and what % they are at levels 1-10 min and max.

Screen 6: I would like to see escalation results like we have now just with more stats like # of bullets fired, correct non negative damage numbers, time spent shooting, time spend suppressed. ECT

===========================================================

If we ever optimize Prototypes, maybe a new NPC vendor, we can go to for all things Proto. Show him arch welding something.

 

I bought Div1 this weekend and played until I cold get to the DZs. I went around and took the highest resolution shots I could of the DZ Safehouses, because I wanted this new escalations zone to have a nostalgic throwback vibe. Obviously modernized and updated to match Div2. Unfortunately I am not done with them all and I can only add one image to the post.

Well that’s all I got folks, let me know what you think in the comment section below. Don’t forget to give me an upvote or you can call my momma fat either way, you are all appreciated,

u/KeyRun1199 — 28 days ago

T0 through T10 Escalations Difficulty, cost and Proto drop chance explained

Just another graphic to help people understand the difference between Escalation Tiers. I hope the community finds this helpful.

This is a repost due to a mistake in my original graphic, thank you to the folks that pointed out the mistake without berating me. You are appreciated.

u/KeyRun1199 — 1 month ago
▲ 444 r/the_division_2+1 crossposts

Rise Up Stretch Goal Awards with drop rates

Thought you guys would find this useful.

u/KeyRun1199 — 1 month ago

Did you know you can fly a helicopter to MOA Island and walk around?

I was just curious if anyone knew you could fly a chopper to MOA Island and run around. You can also drive a boat all the way around Golem Island too and not get attacked by drones.

u/KeyRun1199 — 1 month ago