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u/Kind-Independence-67

r/sofistock
Image 1 — I built a 10-exhibit forensic bear case on SOFI from their own SEC filings. Fair value: $11.46 (-27%).
Image 2 — I built a 10-exhibit forensic bear case on SOFI from their own SEC filings. Fair value: $11.46 (-27%).
Image 3 — I built a 10-exhibit forensic bear case on SOFI from their own SEC filings. Fair value: $11.46 (-27%).
Image 4 — I built a 10-exhibit forensic bear case on SOFI from their own SEC filings. Fair value: $11.46 (-27%).
Image 5 — I built a 10-exhibit forensic bear case on SOFI from their own SEC filings. Fair value: $11.46 (-27%).
Image 6 — I built a 10-exhibit forensic bear case on SOFI from their own SEC filings. Fair value: $11.46 (-27%).
Image 7 — I built a 10-exhibit forensic bear case on SOFI from their own SEC filings. Fair value: $11.46 (-27%).
Image 8 — I built a 10-exhibit forensic bear case on SOFI from their own SEC filings. Fair value: $11.46 (-27%).
Image 9 — I built a 10-exhibit forensic bear case on SOFI from their own SEC filings. Fair value: $11.46 (-27%).
Image 10 — I built a 10-exhibit forensic bear case on SOFI from their own SEC filings. Fair value: $11.46 (-27%).
▲ 0 r/sofistock

I built a 10-exhibit forensic bear case on SOFI from their own SEC filings. Fair value: $11.46 (-27%).

Data as of Friday's close ($15.80), ahead of Q3 earnings Oct 27. All numbers from SOFI's 10-Q/10-K. No position.

The core of it:

  1. SOFI trades at ~2.15x tangible book while earning ~6.7% ROTCE. That multiple needs 17-26% returns to hold. Synchrony earns 25.2% and trades at 1.74x.

  2. 81% of 2025 equity growth came from issuing stock, not retained earnings (which are -$501M). Diluted shares +14.3% YoY.

  3. $1.93B of tangible book (~20%) is fair-value markup on loans — a modeler's opinion, not cash.

  4. Headline personal-loan NCOs are 2.62%; all-in is ~3.7% once you include what the footnotes hide.

  5. Loan Platform volume fell from $3.7B to ~$3.1B — the capital-light growth story is stalling.

  6. Tech Platform is ~7% of segment revenue and down 23% YoY.

  7. EPS stuck at $0.12 for three straight quarters.

Probability-weighted: bear $6.99 / base $11.07 / bull $19.14 → $11.46.

I'll kill this thesis if 3+ of these flip green at earnings: ROTCE run-rate ≥10%, diluted share growth ≤5%, Tech Platform revenue growth positive, all-in personal-loan NCO ≤3.0%, LPB volume ≥$3.7B at 5%+ yield.

Full exhibits in the gallery. Tear it apart — I'm specifically looking for what's wrong.

Not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.

u/Kind-Independence-67 — 4 days ago