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r/sofistock

Image 1 — I built a 10-exhibit forensic bear case on SOFI from their own SEC filings. Fair value: $11.46 (-27%).
Image 2 — I built a 10-exhibit forensic bear case on SOFI from their own SEC filings. Fair value: $11.46 (-27%).
Image 3 — I built a 10-exhibit forensic bear case on SOFI from their own SEC filings. Fair value: $11.46 (-27%).
Image 4 — I built a 10-exhibit forensic bear case on SOFI from their own SEC filings. Fair value: $11.46 (-27%).
Image 5 — I built a 10-exhibit forensic bear case on SOFI from their own SEC filings. Fair value: $11.46 (-27%).
Image 6 — I built a 10-exhibit forensic bear case on SOFI from their own SEC filings. Fair value: $11.46 (-27%).
Image 7 — I built a 10-exhibit forensic bear case on SOFI from their own SEC filings. Fair value: $11.46 (-27%).
Image 8 — I built a 10-exhibit forensic bear case on SOFI from their own SEC filings. Fair value: $11.46 (-27%).
Image 9 — I built a 10-exhibit forensic bear case on SOFI from their own SEC filings. Fair value: $11.46 (-27%).
Image 10 — I built a 10-exhibit forensic bear case on SOFI from their own SEC filings. Fair value: $11.46 (-27%).
▲ 0 r/sofistock

I built a 10-exhibit forensic bear case on SOFI from their own SEC filings. Fair value: $11.46 (-27%).

Data as of Friday's close ($15.80), ahead of Q3 earnings Oct 27. All numbers from SOFI's 10-Q/10-K. No position.

The core of it:

  1. SOFI trades at ~2.15x tangible book while earning ~6.7% ROTCE. That multiple needs 17-26% returns to hold. Synchrony earns 25.2% and trades at 1.74x.

  2. 81% of 2025 equity growth came from issuing stock, not retained earnings (which are -$501M). Diluted shares +14.3% YoY.

  3. $1.93B of tangible book (~20%) is fair-value markup on loans — a modeler's opinion, not cash.

  4. Headline personal-loan NCOs are 2.62%; all-in is ~3.7% once you include what the footnotes hide.

  5. Loan Platform volume fell from $3.7B to ~$3.1B — the capital-light growth story is stalling.

  6. Tech Platform is ~7% of segment revenue and down 23% YoY.

  7. EPS stuck at $0.12 for three straight quarters.

Probability-weighted: bear $6.99 / base $11.07 / bull $19.14 → $11.46.

I'll kill this thesis if 3+ of these flip green at earnings: ROTCE run-rate ≥10%, diluted share growth ≤5%, Tech Platform revenue growth positive, all-in personal-loan NCO ≤3.0%, LPB volume ≥$3.7B at 5%+ yield.

Full exhibits in the gallery. Tear it apart — I'm specifically looking for what's wrong.

Not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.

u/Kind-Independence-67 — 3 days ago
▲ 71 r/sofistock

SoFi Sankey over time

I made this for X (@SoDakZak) but figured I’d share it here as well! I’ve added the gif in the comments scaling it with growth vs % of revenue above

u/SoDakZak — 5 days ago
▲ 144 r/sofistock

Can someone tell me what's wrong with SOFI?

Sofi is one of the stocks that gets pump so much from retail traders but always crash soon after. What's wrong with this stock?

u/Mobile_Foot2932 — 7 days ago
▲ 17 r/sofistock

SoFi Weekend Chat - October 10-October 11, 2026

  • Discuss your thoughts on SoFi, FinTech, memes, yolos, the market, or whatever else might be on your mind.
  • Please refrain from any political, religious, or otherwise controversial discussions, and respect one another in your discussion so that the conversation stays on topic.
  • Direct/Personal attacks against others violates the subreddit rules and those comments will be deleted. Please report such comments and the MODs will review them as quickly as possible (MODs have day jobs too, please be gracious)
  • If you are a SOFI investor before the SPAC merger with IPOE and want an "OG SOFI Investor" flair, please message the Mods with proof of your holdings.
  • Nothing said here is financial advice. SOFI is still a high-risk, growth stock. Equities by their nature are risky, some more than others.
  • Investing isn't a team sport. You have to decide for yourself how much risk you are willing to take on and do your own DD about a company before you decide to invest in it.
reddit.com
u/AutoModerator — 5 days ago
▲ 16 r/sofistock+1 crossposts

Robinhood or SoFi: Who’s Better?

HOOD and SOFI get lumped together a lot, but I don't think they're really competing at the core. Robinhood makes its money on retail trading and SoFi makes its money on retail lending, so the two have different cores. I'm not expecting much from Robinhood's banking push or its effort to bring on hedge funds, since institutional money rarely leaves where it already sits. I think SoFi wins enterprise accounts first. Meanwhile, the two stocks have been moving in opposite directions. I'm curious where people here land, especially anyone holding either one.

substack.com
u/Efficient_Style3422 — 6 days ago
▲ 12 r/sofistock

SoFi Daily Chat - October 09, 2026

* Discuss your thoughts on SoFi, FinTech, memes, yolos, the market, or whatever else might be on your mind.

* Please refrain from any political, religious, or otherwise controversial discussions, and respect one another in your discussion so that the conversation stays on topic.

* Direct/Personal attacks against others violates the subreddit rules and those comments will be deleted. Please report such comments and the MODs will review them as quickly as possible (MODs have day jobs too, please be gracious)

* If you are a SOFI investor before the SPAC merger with IPOE and want an "OG SOFI Investor" flair, please message the Mods with proof of your holdings.

* Nothing said here is financial advice. SOFI is still a high-risk, growth stock. Equities by their nature are risky, some more than others.

* Investing isn't a team sport. You have to decide for yourself how much risk you are willing to take on and do your own DD about a company before you decide to invest in it.

reddit.com
u/AutoModerator — 6 days ago
▲ 19 r/sofistock

SoFi Daily Chat - October 08, 2026

* Discuss your thoughts on SoFi, FinTech, memes, yolos, the market, or whatever else might be on your mind.

* Please refrain from any political, religious, or otherwise controversial discussions, and respect one another in your discussion so that the conversation stays on topic.

* Direct/Personal attacks against others violates the subreddit rules and those comments will be deleted. Please report such comments and the MODs will review them as quickly as possible (MODs have day jobs too, please be gracious)

* If you are a SOFI investor before the SPAC merger with IPOE and want an "OG SOFI Investor" flair, please message the Mods with proof of your holdings.

* Nothing said here is financial advice. SOFI is still a high-risk, growth stock. Equities by their nature are risky, some more than others.

* Investing isn't a team sport. You have to decide for yourself how much risk you are willing to take on and do your own DD about a company before you decide to invest in it.

reddit.com
u/AutoModerator — 7 days ago
▲ 19 r/sofistock

Finally a green close… and now?

The next weeks are going to be pretty important with all the banks reporting earnings and ours in 2 weeks.
( given that wall street seems to treat sofi like a bank) How do you think other reports are going to affect us as we get closer to oct 27th?

reddit.com
u/Mean_Phase_6086 — 6 days ago
▲ 21 r/sofistock

Is there any nervousness about the estimated EPS (0.17) for Q3 earnings?

Do you feel it’s more than obtainable or could this finally be a blemish on SOFI’s earnings report?

If the latter, would you sell?

reddit.com
u/CLE216ers — 7 days ago
▲ 17 r/sofistock

SoFi Daily Chat - October 07, 2026

* Discuss your thoughts on SoFi, FinTech, memes, yolos, the market, or whatever else might be on your mind.

* Please refrain from any political, religious, or otherwise controversial discussions, and respect one another in your discussion so that the conversation stays on topic.

* Direct/Personal attacks against others violates the subreddit rules and those comments will be deleted. Please report such comments and the MODs will review them as quickly as possible (MODs have day jobs too, please be gracious)

* If you are a SOFI investor before the SPAC merger with IPOE and want an "OG SOFI Investor" flair, please message the Mods with proof of your holdings.

* Nothing said here is financial advice. SOFI is still a high-risk, growth stock. Equities by their nature are risky, some more than others.

* Investing isn't a team sport. You have to decide for yourself how much risk you are willing to take on and do your own DD about a company before you decide to invest in it.

reddit.com
u/AutoModerator — 8 days ago
▲ 20 r/sofistock

SoFi Daily Chat - October 06, 2026

* Discuss your thoughts on SoFi, FinTech, memes, yolos, the market, or whatever else might be on your mind.

* Please refrain from any political, religious, or otherwise controversial discussions, and respect one another in your discussion so that the conversation stays on topic.

* Direct/Personal attacks against others violates the subreddit rules and those comments will be deleted. Please report such comments and the MODs will review them as quickly as possible (MODs have day jobs too, please be gracious)

* If you are a SOFI investor before the SPAC merger with IPOE and want an "OG SOFI Investor" flair, please message the Mods with proof of your holdings.

* Nothing said here is financial advice. SOFI is still a high-risk, growth stock. Equities by their nature are risky, some more than others.

* Investing isn't a team sport. You have to decide for yourself how much risk you are willing to take on and do your own DD about a company before you decide to invest in it.

reddit.com
u/AutoModerator — 9 days ago
▲ 13 r/sofistock

Short term vs long term

Another day where Spx is up and Sofi is down, I’m worried that if this bull run comes to an end things could get ugly for us.

I have 16.00 avg so I’m near break even after a lot of time and I’m seriously thinking of selling but on the other end I’m bullish long term.
Any advice

reddit.com
u/Mean_Phase_6086 — 9 days ago
▲ 33 r/sofistock

$SOFI TBV vs $HOOD TBV

$SOFI TBV vs $HOOD TBV

(Used same previous 8 quarters blended %… seems optimistic for SoFi’s projection, but they’ve already taken the lead for 3 Quarters)

u/Lupo201 — 10 days ago
▲ 22 r/sofistock

SoFi Daily Chat - October 05, 2026

* Discuss your thoughts on SoFi, FinTech, memes, yolos, the market, or whatever else might be on your mind.

* Please refrain from any political, religious, or otherwise controversial discussions, and respect one another in your discussion so that the conversation stays on topic.

* Direct/Personal attacks against others violates the subreddit rules and those comments will be deleted. Please report such comments and the MODs will review them as quickly as possible (MODs have day jobs too, please be gracious)

* If you are a SOFI investor before the SPAC merger with IPOE and want an "OG SOFI Investor" flair, please message the Mods with proof of your holdings.

* Nothing said here is financial advice. SOFI is still a high-risk, growth stock. Equities by their nature are risky, some more than others.

* Investing isn't a team sport. You have to decide for yourself how much risk you are willing to take on and do your own DD about a company before you decide to invest in it.

reddit.com
u/AutoModerator — 10 days ago