u/Knoledge-is-power

I’ve been building a local Windows-first tool for geopolitical and political-risk analysis, and I’d really like feedback from people who actually work with OSINT tools and workflows.

The first version was framed too much like “AI prediction”, but I moved away from that because it creates the wrong expectation. In geopolitical analysis, a model can sound very confident even when the evidence is weak, the time horizon is vague, or the sources don’t really support the conclusion.So I tried to build something more conservative: a local analyst workstation that helps turn a geopolitical risk question into a structured report.

The workflow is roughly:

You enter a bounded scenario, for example shipping disruption, sanctions risk, political instability, military escalation, or supply-chain exposure. The tool then retrieves relevant event data, checks evidence, runs analyst/reviewer passes, searches for counterexamples, scores confidence and validity, adds warnings when the prompt or evidence is weak, and exports a PDF report. It uses local Ollama models, GDELT event data, retrieval with ChromaDB, quality gates, backtesting, and local report generation. After setup, it runs locally and does not require cloud API keys. The goal is not to replace OSINT work or human judgment. The goal is to make the analysis more structured, auditable, and easier to review.

I’m especially looking for feedback on:

Does this fit any real OSINT workflow?

Would local-first/no cloud API keys matter for sensitive analysis?

What sources or datasets would make this more useful?

How would you evaluate whether a geopolitical risk report is actually credible?

Would you trust something like this more as an evidence/review tool than as a forecasting tool?

The tool is called GPIS. I’m preparing a paid release, but right now I’m mainly trying to get serious beta feedback from people who can tell me what is broken, missing, or naive. If mod accepts i can post the link later.

I’ve been building a side project called GPIS, a Windows-first local AI app for geopolitical and political-risk analysis.

The first idea was honestly more flashy: “AI that helps predict geopolitical events.”

But after testing it, I realized that was probably the worst possible framing.

The problem is that AI models can sound very confident even when the evidence is weak. In geopolitics this is dangerous, because a nice narrative can feel like analysis, even when it is just pattern-matching with too much confidence.

Instead of trying to make an “AI oracle”, I built GPIS as a local analyst workstation. You enter a bounded risk question, like shipping disruption, sanctions risk, political instability, military escalation, or supply-chain exposure, and the software tries to turn it into a structured report.

It forces the analysis to include a time horizon, scenario probabilities, evidence, counterarguments, uncertainty, indicators to watch, validation warnings, and a PDF report.

It runs locally after setup, uses Ollama models, geopolitical event data, retrieval, analyst/reviewer loops, counterexample search, confidence and validity scores, backtesting, and report generation. I made it Windows-first because I think a lot of nontechnical users do not want Docker, Linux, API keys, or cloud setup just to test a tool. They want to install something, run it, and get a report.

I’m preparing a paid Gumroad release, but before pushing it harder I’m looking for feedback from other builders.

Main questions:

Would you position this as a local AI workstation, a risk report generator, or a geopolitical forecasting tool?

Does Windows-first make it more accessible, or less credible?

Would you pay for a tool like this if the reports were useful, or is the niche too narrow?

What would you want to see before trusting it: screenshots, demo video, sample reports, backtests, methodology docs?

Happy to share the link in the comments. I’m mostly looking for honest feedback on positioning, trust, and whether this feels like a real product or just a very niche experiment.

Please help me with my project.

I’ve been building a side project called GPIS, a Windows-first local AI app for geopolitical and political-risk analysis.

The first idea was honestly more flashy: “AI that helps predict geopolitical events.”

But after testing it, I realized that was probably the worst possible framing.

The problem is that AI models can sound very confident even when the evidence is weak. In geopolitics this is dangerous, because a nice narrative can feel like analysis, even when it is just pattern-matching with too much confidence.

Instead of trying to make an “AI oracle”, I built GPIS as a local analyst workstation. You enter a bounded risk question, like shipping disruption, sanctions risk, political instability, military escalation, or supply-chain exposure, and the software tries to turn it into a structured report.

It forces the analysis to include a time horizon, scenario probabilities, evidence, counterarguments, uncertainty, indicators to watch, validation warnings, and a PDF report.

It runs locally after setup, uses Ollama models, geopolitical event data, retrieval, analyst/reviewer loops, counterexample search, confidence and validity scores, backtesting, and report generation. I made it Windows-first because I think a lot of nontechnical users do not want Docker, Linux, API keys, or cloud setup just to test a tool. They want to install something, run it, and get a report.

I’m preparing a paid Gumroad release, but before pushing it harder I’m looking for feedback from other builders.

Main questions:

Would you position this as a local AI workstation, a risk report generator, or a geopolitical forecasting tool?

Does Windows-first make it more accessible, or less credible?

Would you pay for a tool like this if the reports were useful, or is the niche too narrow?

What would you want to see before trusting it: screenshots, demo video, sample reports, backtests, methodology docs?

Happy to share the link in the comments. I’m mostly looking for honest feedback on positioning, trust, and whether this feels like a real product or just a very niche experiment.

I built GPIS, a Windows-first local AI workstation for geopolitical/political-risk analysis.

The goal is not "AI predicts the future." I actually had to move away from that framing because early local models can become overconfident or latch onto irrelevant threat categories. The current design is more conservative:

- local Ollama models;

- GDELT ingestion;

- ChromaDB retrieval;

- iterative analyst/reviewer loops;

- counterexample search;

- confidence and validity scoring;

- prompt quality gates;

- blind temporal backtesting;

- PDFreports;

It runs locally after setup and does not require cloud API keys.

I am looking for feedback on positioning and evaluation.

Disclosure: I built it and I am preparing a paid Gumroad release. Happy to share details about the architecture and the mistakes I ran into.