u/LividRelease7742

I wanted to thank everbody that comfort me on my short on Redwire.

I know its kinda brutal (but it was expected)

I just want to warn you that this is just the beginning of this downfall.

Tomorrow we will deeply cross the daily MA cloud Wich is major shift in for this stock

Volume are very low

Index looks toppish

Q3 earnings will be awful

The exec dosent care about the PA of the stock as they have secure hundred of millions that will be able to fund those 1400 employees (yes 1400 employees for this shitty company 😂😂) and as well the net income per employee is -160.000$ lol do the math with 1400 dude

I wish you luck this is just the beginning of the storm but thanksfully im on the good side of the story by shorting it

And last yes tomorrow we could see a slight bounce to 10.15$ (this is the new major resistance) so dont grab my shirt if u see this tomorrow. Btw it will be Even better to add on my short 🩳

Cheers

Yes thats me again, from the post "i"m shorting redwire" and i will explain why i increasing my short today :

- There is no more marginal buyer (only algo that come from ETF)

- Market (index SPX/NDQ) are at ATH and just a 5% pull back could trigger a pullback of 15%

- No cataclyst event seems capable of changing the situation. The only scenario I can envision is Blue Origin acquiring a stake in or even buying out the company; however, this seems highly unlikely, given that RDW is so diversified that no specialized firm would likely want to acquire it. Furthermore, no one buys a public company that is not generating profit

- The US government has signed the Space Force Act, yet there has been no reversal of the trend. This implies that any new statements regarding space from the executive branch are now behind us.

- In a few days, we will see the 50/200 moving average crossover (death cross), which is a strong signal of a bear market.

- Todays price action show litteraly no sign of reaction on loosing this important support so it will likely become a resistance in the next month.

Refer to my previous post regarding the various points I raised about this company.

I am also attaching this chart, which is a textbook example.

Please remain polite, even if this post stirs up strong emotions for you.

I wish you plenty of resilience, as I do not believe a new all-time high is likely before at least a year.

Why i'm shorting redwire :

- In five years, it has still not managed to post a profitable quarter.

- It keeps diversifying into new activities in an attempt to find a profitable sector.

- It wins very few tenders in a market with limited competition (the space sector).

- The defense sector (drones) is highly competitive and offers very low margins.

-The company has 1,400 employees but loses several hundred million each year.

-The ATM facility remains open, and that is what is creating enormous selling pressure.

-In my view, RDW's valuation is around $1.1–$1.3 billion.

-Given this recent ATM activity and the fact that the number of outstanding shares is expected to reach 280–300 million, the share price should drop back toward the $3.90–$4.50 range.

Please feel free to share a well-reasoned opinion if you disagree and do so maturely.