r/redwire

I wanted to thank everbody that comfort me on my short on Redwire.

I know its kinda brutal (but it was expected)

I just want to warn you that this is just the beginning of this downfall.

Tomorrow we will deeply cross the daily MA cloud Wich is major shift in for this stock

Volume are very low

Index looks toppish

Q3 earnings will be awful

The exec dosent care about the PA of the stock as they have secure hundred of millions that will be able to fund those 1400 employees (yes 1400 employees for this shitty company 😂😂) and as well the net income per employee is -160.000$ lol do the math with 1400 dude

I wish you luck this is just the beginning of the storm but thanksfully im on the good side of the story by shorting it

And last yes tomorrow we could see a slight bounce to 10.15$ (this is the new major resistance) so dont grab my shirt if u see this tomorrow. Btw it will be Even better to add on my short 🩳

Cheers

Yes thats me again, from the post "i"m shorting redwire" and i will explain why i increasing my short today :

- There is no more marginal buyer (only algo that come from ETF)

- Market (index SPX/NDQ) are at ATH and just a 5% pull back could trigger a pullback of 15%

- No cataclyst event seems capable of changing the situation. The only scenario I can envision is Blue Origin acquiring a stake in or even buying out the company; however, this seems highly unlikely, given that RDW is so diversified that no specialized firm would likely want to acquire it. Furthermore, no one buys a public company that is not generating profit

- The US government has signed the Space Force Act, yet there has been no reversal of the trend. This implies that any new statements regarding space from the executive branch are now behind us.

- In a few days, we will see the 50/200 moving average crossover (death cross), which is a strong signal of a bear market.

- Todays price action show litteraly no sign of reaction on loosing this important support so it will likely become a resistance in the next month.

Refer to my previous post regarding the various points I raised about this company.

I am also attaching this chart, which is a textbook example.

Please remain polite, even if this post stirs up strong emotions for you.

I wish you plenty of resilience, as I do not believe a new all-time high is likely before at least a year.

Why i'm shorting redwire :

- In five years, it has still not managed to post a profitable quarter.

- It keeps diversifying into new activities in an attempt to find a profitable sector.

- It wins very few tenders in a market with limited competition (the space sector).

- The defense sector (drones) is highly competitive and offers very low margins.

-The company has 1,400 employees but loses several hundred million each year.

-The ATM facility remains open, and that is what is creating enormous selling pressure.

-In my view, RDW's valuation is around $1.1–$1.3 billion.

-Given this recent ATM activity and the fact that the number of outstanding shares is expected to reach 280–300 million, the share price should drop back toward the $3.90–$4.50 range.

Please feel free to share a well-reasoned opinion if you disagree and do so maturely.

The losses and the dilution are mostly behind the company. Drones are growing fast, and the order book just doubled. Space is not broken; only one European customer slowed, and the US space segment grew 17%. We literally had a space deal yesterday for around $35 million. And the balance sheet is cleaner than ever.

1. "They're losing a ton of money"

Q2's $41M loss included about $16M of one-offs that are gone:

• $14.5M was a warrant accounting hit. Those warrants expired Sep 2.
• The rest: debt payoff costs, a few small items, and a preferred dividend that no longer exists.

The underlying loss is about $25M a quarter, and more than half of that is non-cash. Q2 Adjusted EBITDA was close to breakeven at $(3.2)M, up from $(27.4)M a year ago. To sell on the verge of breakeven and boom is irrational.

2. "Dilution will crush you"

This is the bear's boasting point, which is a typical story of every space company. So let us see the underlying points:

• Shares went from 192M to 249M in the first half. That already happened, and it is priced in. Why short now?
• About 70% of all the ATM money is already raised, and we are nearing the end. Next quarter could reveal that ATM is completed and explain the current price pressure.
• With $557M cash already at hand, the company is secured for another decade, so there is no fear of bankruptcy. Rather, the company could buy smaller companies, integrate them, and increase the valuation.

3. "Space is shrinking"

Space revenue, Q2	Last year	This year	Change
US customers	$28.1M	$32.9M	+17%
European customers	$28.6M	$22.3M	−22%

• The company was still integrating Edge Autonomy and the Space segment was being reshaped
• The decline is mostly one large European customer buying fewer solar arrays.
• We faced a government shutdown and NASA's pause, yet the US segment did not slow down!!
  • Gateway's solar arrays are moving to NASA's SR-1 Mars mission, per the CEO.
• New order: a repeat solar-array order from Axiom Space was announced Oct 5, so this segment should receive a strong boost in the next quarter.
• Orders are growing: Space book-to-bill over the last 12 months is 1.48.

4. Drones are the growth engine

• Revenue: $61.9M, up 40% from Q1.
• Margins: gross margin around 47%, and segment EBITDA of $14.1M.
• Backlog: doubled since December, to $220M. Book-to-bill was 2.35.
• Budget support: the Marines' Stalker budget goes from $17.8M to a $65.3M FY27 request (+266%)!!!!!! One quarter of this and suddenly everyone will glaze RDW

5. Balance sheet

• Cash is $557M.
• Debt is down 75%, to $49M.
• All preferred stock has converted, and the warrants have expired.

And you decide to short now and not a year ago when all of this did not exist?

RDW has a better safety net; if one of these sectors slows down, the other sector will hold it up. Are we overvalued? NO. Are we growing? RAPIDLY. And once things reflect, people will regret shorting.

This week was probably the most eventful in space equities since I started covering the sector. Full breakdown below.

RKLB +34%
Record $200M quarter, up 63% YoY. Four analyst raises in one session. TD Cowen now at $120.

HawkEye 360 (HAWK) IPO
New space stock worth knowing about. RF signals intelligence — detects radio emissions from ships, aircraft and military assets globally. Profitable at IPO, 80% gross margins, $302M backlog. Closed +30% day one.

ASTS
BlueBird 7 fallout ongoing but mid-June Falcon 9 launch confirmed for satellites 8-10. Earnings Monday — most important call in the sector right now.

SpaceX IPO
S-1 expected late May. Every space stock is being repriced around it.

I track 33 space stocks and ETFs — RKLB, ASTS, LUNR, PL, BKSY, RDW, FLY, HAWK, OKLO, SPCE, KRMN, DXYZ and more, on a free live dashboard with broker targets, launch calendar and a weekly deep dive newsletter.

If you want the full deep dive, broker target changes and launch calendar in one place every Sunday, it’s free and takes 10 seconds to sign up. Link below.

Remember that RDW was trading around $20 before the $500M ATM started. Now add $557M in cash, debt cut 75% to $49M, and a record quarter ($117M revenue, $542M backlog), and imagine where the price lands once the ATM selling is behind us soon

ANTALYA, Türkiye/JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (October 5, 2026) – Redwire Corporation (NYSE: RDW), a global leader in space and defense technology solutions, today announced it has been awarded a contract by Axiom Space, a leader in next-generation space infrastructure, to develop and deliver two Roll-Out Solar Array (ROSA) wings for Axiom Station’s second space station module.

Discuss anything about Redwire or its stock here in this thread! Be civil, avoid politics, and stay classy.