Remember that RDW was trading around $20 before the $500M ATM started. Now add $557M in cash, debt cut 75% to $49M, and a record quarter ($117M revenue, $542M backlog), and imagine where the price lands once the ATM selling is behind us soon
The losses and the dilution are mostly behind the company. Drones are growing fast, and the order book just doubled. Space is not broken; only one European customer slowed, and the US space segment grew 17%. We literally had a space deal yesterday for around $35 million. And the balance sheet is cleaner than ever.
1. "They're losing a ton of money"
Q2's $41M loss included about $16M of one-offs that are gone:
The underlying loss is about $25M a quarter, and more than half of that is non-cash. Q2 Adjusted EBITDA was close to breakeven at $(3.2)M, up from $(27.4)M a year ago. To sell on the verge of breakeven and boom is irrational.
2. "Dilution will crush you"
This is the bear's boasting point, which is a typical story of every space company. So let us see the underlying points:
3. "Space is shrinking"
| Space revenue, Q2 | Last year | This year | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| US customers | $28.1M | $32.9M | +17% |
| European customers | $28.6M | $22.3M | −22% |
4. Drones are the growth engine
5. Balance sheet
And you decide to short now and not a year ago when all of this did not exist?
RDW has a better safety net; if one of these sectors slows down, the other sector will hold it up. Are we overvalued? NO. Are we growing? RAPIDLY. And once things reflect, people will regret shorting.
Redwire published an article today saying over 300 Penguin UAS have been delivered to Ukraine, and that its UAS and Octopus payloads are in use across Ukraine's Armed Forces.
The last figure I could find was "more than 200", in a June 3 article.
If both figures are close to the real totals, that is roughly 100 more aircraft in about 4 months.
The only public price I found is Ukraine's 2022 purchase of 10 Penguin C systems (two aircraft each) for ~$17.8M. That works out to roughly $0.9M per aircraft including ground equipment, and today's more advanced, better-equipped versions likely cost MUCH more. Even at 2022 prices, 100 extra aircraft in about 4.5 months would be about $90M in revenue. One caveat is that both numbers are rounded minimums, so the real increase could be anywhere from about 100 new aircraft to only a dozen or so.
NASA selected 41 proposals from 37 companies for its 2025 ACO collaboration program (Moon/Mars tech). Made In Space, Inc. is also listed, and it's been a wholly-owned Redwire subsidiary since 2020.
Almost every space and drone stock has been raising money this year. In the short term, it does sound horrible, but every company has its reasons. I believe RDW's ATM is about gearing up to accelerate production and meet the demand in the space and drone markets. Since the start of the year, the company has repeatedly said it has developed incredible technology across many niches, and that now it's time to scale it: the CEO told CNBC on June 2 that "now is the time to be scaling and gaining market share," and on the Q1 earnings call management said the ATM lets them "opportunistically fund emerging technologies" and put money into "high gross margin, high growth rate opportunities" across six named programs.
Overall, the hype that SpaceX allowed every company to raise money. What we really should be asking is, who is going to use it purposefully:
| Company | Amount | Date (2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Rocket Lab | $3.0B | May 20 |
| AST SpaceMobile | $1.075B | Feb 17 |
| Ondas | $1.0B | Jan 12 |
| Karman | $854M | Late May |
| Redwire | $500M | Jun 9 |
| Intuitive Machines | $500M | Jun 3 |
| Red Cat | ~$225M | May |
| Firefly | ~$192M | Late May |
| Unusual Machines | $150M | Mar 23 |
| Sidus Space | $100M | Jun 1 |
| Total | ~$8B |
RDW trades at 13.8x sales, and less since the market just opened. Put it on the same multiple as its peers, and you get these fair values of RDW:
We were not on the hype train with the rest because AE sold 60% of their shares whenever the stock was about to pop off (Now they are OUT). Everything aligns now, from the opportunities that exist in drones and space, for RDW to reach $50, $100, or even its average space sector value of $259 in the next few months.
