u/WhatsNextBuddy

2026 contract wins so far:

- $397M — U.S. Space Force SB-AMTI
Build and launch multiple Flatellite spacecraft on Neutron to detect, track & monitor airborne threats from space.

- $266M — U.S. Space Force
12 HASTE suborbital launches, with options for 6 additional missions, supporting missile-defense testing.

- $190M — U.S. Department of War
20 HASTE hypersonic test flights under the MACH-TB program.

- $160M+ — U.S. Government / Space Force
Two contracts to build 3 GEO satellites, including 2 satellites for space-domain awareness.

- $30M — Anduril
3 HASTE launches for hypersonic technology testing.

- $12M — U.S. Space Force
Two delivery orders for the Space Data Network, including secure optical communications and a Photon demonstration.

- Undisclosed — Confidential Customer
5 Neutron + 3 Electron dedicated launches, making it Rocket Lab’s largest launch contract at the time.

- Undisclosed — Synspective
20 dedicated Electron launches from 2028–2031 to deploy its StriX SAR Earth-observation constellation — Rocket Lab’s largest-ever commercial Electron deal.

- Undisclosed — iQPS
3 additional dedicated Electron launches for its QPS-SAR Earth-imaging constellation.

- Undisclosed — Kepler Communications
1 dedicated Neutron launch to deploy Kepler’s satellite constellation.

While stock is down more than 50% from its all-time high 3 months ago, we now wait for Neutron to enter the market

So bullish

Satellogic’s Merlin 01 will be launched on October 1st.

Merlin constellation will enable Satellogic to process data through AI in orbit, through actual GPUs.

Final insights will directly transmitted to Earth.

That’s basically a proto-orbital data center

Redwire holds over 9% of microgravity and in-space manufacturing market share.

The 2028 Starfall mission with 32 PIL-BOXes indicates that demand is growing.

This can become the third revenue leg for Redwire, as equal as defense and space tech.

https://youtube.com/shorts/wP74B2xNQFg?si=I4asHKqbO3eczY1f

What do you think?

Is there a focus shift from margins to contract types and lengths?

UAE just launched Altair Next Gen: a $1 billion programme to build the world’s largest AI infrastructure in space.

Marlan Space, Loft Orbital will partern with Mistral AI to build and deploy AI data centers in LEO.

The initial phase will comprise 50 cutting-edge AI satellites carrying radar, optical and other sensors, serving European and Emirati government users.

THIS IS RELEVANT FOR RDW.

Redwire has already a strong footprint in Europe.

And since any satellite requires power, guess who they will contract for ROSA/ELSA?

It’s a germanium-free, high-efficiency solar cell.

This is relevant because by not utilizing Germanium, the global supply chain bottlenecks are bypassed.

This further strengthens RKLB value chain as vertically integrated space company:

- Upstream: solar panels, reaction wheels, separation systems, satellite buses.

- Midstream: Launch services (Electron, Neutron)

- Downstream: satellite networks operations, with monthly recurring subscription fees.

Electron : Neutron = ROSA : ELSA

1. Power output:

• ELSA: 250W-7kW
• ROSA: 20kW+

2. Use:

• ELSA: small satellites, constellations
• ROSA: ISS, Lunar Gateway, large spacecraft

3. Value:

• ELSA prioritizes mass production
• ROSA prioritizes power

Redwire’s first ELSA sale was a $12.8M national security contract through Moog.

Now ELSA has:

• passed critical design review
• been baselined on Moog’s METEOR bus
• been engineered for volume production
• delivered up to 50% more power/volume

ELSA targets 250W–7kW systems, which is the sweet spot for proliferated LEO satellites.

If METEOR wins a constellation order, Redwire could sell multiple arrays. The next catalyst could be a multi-satellite METEOR award!

(Via Space Investor)

US launches in the last 13 years have surged 10x:

2013: 19 orbital launches
2025: 178 launches.

Policy sets 1,000 launches by 2030

That’s great news for RDW

RKLB has been selected to build lightning-GEO satellite bus for the US Space Force (PTS-G program).

The GEO satellite will deliver secure, anti-jam X/Ka-band communication for US in contested environments.

RL is a now a major national security defense vendor.

Rocket Lab has just been selected as partner by US Space System Command to support the Space Data Network.

Scope is design, testing, and demonstration of key technologies to enable seamless communication between satellites and ground systems.

So bullish!

Rocket Lab Germany is here.

Europe faces glaring gaps across both launch and spacecraft manufacturing. Rocket Lab Germany addresses these directly, combining opportunities for high-frequency access to space with high-volume satellite production to deploy resilient constellations on rapid timelines.

How ignorant is this fat cringe?

Rocket Lab Neutron AIC, the hungry hippo, is airborne, at least crane-assisted. The lift is currently underway and they're putting it over the scaffolding as suspected. More pictures and video to come later

rocket launch at LC-1 with QPS_Inc. Horizontal checkouts complete and Electron is vertical on the pad

Operations are tracking to schedule for tonight's launch window opening at:

- 9:00 pm/09:00 NZST/UTC
- 6:00 pm JST
- 5:00 am EDT
- 2:00 am PDT

This is a contract ceiling, not an upfront payment. It’s defiantly great news and for the first time RDW will deploy massive tech and most of edge heritage.

It will deliver space launch, suborbital testing platforms, and spacecraft manufacturing.

Capabilities Bidded:

- Suborbital Testing: HASTE for responsive hypersonic and suborbital payload testing.

- Orbital Launch & Infrastructure via Electron

- Tactical & Space System