u/WhatsNextBuddy

Britain will unveil its long-delayed Defence Investment Plan on Tuesday, prioritising £5 billion of investment in drones and a focus on autonomous systems.

Redwire has been preparing for this, expanding its UK footprint just three months ago.

"As demand for advanced UAS capabilities continues to rise, our growing European presence reflects our long-term commitment to supporting partners wherever mission needs emerge," added Tuna Djemil, VP of Business Development and Strategy for Redwire Defense.

"The UK represents a critical hub for defence innovation, and we are proud to contribute to its future capability development."

Via Space Investor (X)

Electron has been selected by NASA for three launches in 2027 to deploy its PolSIR and TSIS-2 Sun and Earth sciences missions.

We've been delivering reliability, precise orbital accuracy, and on-demand launch for NASA missions for almost a decade - and we're ready to deliver that once again for PolSIR and TSIS-2 from Launch Complex 1 early next year.

I have compared some upward catalysts. Let me know if I missed anything.

1. Financial & Execution Milestones

- FCF Crossover: Reaching positive Free Cash Flow by late year, eliminating dilution risk and shifting the valuation model from multiple-on-sales to earnings.

- Backlog Conversion: Rapidly converting the near-$500M backlog into high-margin revenue (specifically space components), driving EPS surprises.

2. Programmatic & Technological Drivers

- SabreSat Validation: Flight data and milestones from the $44M DARPA Otter program to validate Very Low Earth Orbit (VLEO) technology.

- Defense & Infrastructure Contracts: Direct wins or Tier-1 hardware supply contracts for major resilient military orbital networks.

- Commercial Space Infrastructure: Continued hardware and ROSA (Roll-Out Solar Array) deliveries for commercial space stations (e.g., Axiom Space).

3. Macro & Market Structure Tailwinds

- Rate Cut Benefits: The Federal Reserve's rate-cut cycle lowers financing costs, improves project economics, and boosts net margins.

- M&A Target: Redwire’s deep patent moat (ROSA, in-space manufacturing) makes it a prime acquisition target for larger defense primes in a looser credit environment.

Technical Breakout: Consolidating above key moving averages; a clean break past the $23–$24 resistance could trigger a squeeze on the short float (~13%) toward $28.

ARTEMIS III Astronauts

Commander, Randy Bresnik 🇺🇸
Pilot, Luca Parmitano 🇮🇹
Mission Specialist 1, Frank Rubio 🇺🇸
Mission Specialist 2, Andre Douglas 🇺🇸

As expected, the comparison between SpaceX and other cheaper space stocks, like RKLB starts.

Even before IPO.

Now let’s make some observations..

SpaceX IPO $2 trillion means a P/S of 94 to 96.

If we look at the other space companies…

Equally or more expensive:

- ASTS : ~383
- RKLB : ~107

With some upside:

- PL : ~56
- FLY : ~38

Very cheap (large upside)

- RDW : 11
- VOYG : 17
- LUNR : 18

This is just cold math, but let’s see what are the main forces driving the IPO “fever”:

1. Sector validation and liquidity rotation toward space

401k, insurance companies and larger funds will discover more appetite for the sector, deploying capital in a diversified way - by launch competitors (RKLB, ASTS) and by segment (RDW, LUNR, PL etc)

2. Liquidity vacuum thesis:

Investing in SX will suck capital away from existing space stocks, whose investors will look for a “safer” investment. The problem with that is with higher market cap, SX upside is lower.

Thats why Musk has repeated e thought of lowering the $1.5T market cap/valuation.

There might be some people liquidating some positions from RKLB, but I honestly believe that will be a tiny amount.

3. A mixed signal:

Regardless its market cap, SX IPO could attract capital to the space sector, while some investors liquidate some of their space positions to open new ones in SX.

This scenario is a mix of forces (1) and (2), and highly plausible.

Outcome: outflows from space stocks is offset by external capital flowing into space sector .

Kraken Robotics has been named to Time and Statista World’s Growth Leaders of 2026, ranking 161st out of 1,000 companies globally and 20th in the Engineering, Manufacturing & Medical Technology category

This is great news for the defense segment of Redwire.

Just as a reminder, RDW provides Stalker and Penguin VTOLs

1. Q1 revenue: $21.7M (+50% YoY)

2. EBITDA: $3M (up from $2.8 million in Q1 2025)

3. 2026 revenue guidance: [$165m to $175m] and

4. Adjusted EBITDA: $40M to $50M

Covelya acquisition to be closed by Q2 2026.

Link to the original post: https://x.com/torregiorgio94/status/2059949495425683530?s=46

RKLB officially acquired Motiv Space Systems.

Motiv – now Rocket Lab Robotics – brings mission-tested Mars heritage with advanced multi-degree of freedom robotic arms, actuators, and drive electronics that have enabled some of the most ambitious planetary exploration missions in history, including NASA's Mars Perseverance rover.

You might have bought RDW at $1, $5, $8, $12 or at the peak of $20 last years.

What is happening now is the fruit of your patience.

We deserved these gins for the patience.

For believing in it.

I believe this is just the beginning. Get ready for the ride all the way to $2035!

In my opinion, a future SpaceX IPO will not “kill” Rocket Lab.

Actually, I believe it could validate the entire space sector and bring even more institutional capital into it.

Here is why.

First, SpaceX is becoming so large that many investors will see it almost like “space infrastructure” itself.

Starlink, Starship, defense contracts, launch, satellites, communications, lunar logistics, government partnerships…this is evolving into an entire industrial ecosystem, not just a launch company.

That means many investors looking for higher growth potential may still rotate toward smaller players like Rocket Lab.

It is similar to what happened in tech:

• Amazon did not kill Shopify
• NVIDIA did not kill AMD
• Microsoft did not kill Palantir

Large ecosystems often create space for specialized and faster-growing players.

And honestly, I believe Neutron has a very strong positioning opportunity.

Why?

Because the launch market does not want a single provider forever.

Governments do not want dependency.
Defense agencies do not want dependency.
Commercial operators do not want dependency.

The global launch market is simply becoming too strategic.

In my opinion, Neutron sits exactly in the sweet spot between:

• Falcon 9 heavy capability
• lower operational complexity
• partial reusability
• responsive launch
• vertically integrated satellite manufacturing

And this last point is massively underestimated.

Rocket Lab is not only building a rocket.

It is building an integrated space company:

• launch
• satellites
• space systems
• components
• defense exposure
• software
• mission operations

That creates sticky customer relationships.

I also believe many customers do not need Starship-level payloads.

A huge portion of the market will still require:

• medium lift
• faster cadence
• dedicated missions
• lower integration complexity
• more flexible scheduling

And that is exactly where Neutron can compete.

Especially if launch demand explodes because of:

• defense constellations
• sovereign space programs
• Earth observation
• AI-driven satellite demand
• space-based communications

The reality is that the space economy is probably becoming too large for one company alone.

SpaceX may dominate the very heavy segment.

But I believe Rocket Lab has a real opportunity to become the “next major strategic space infrastructure company” in the medium launch and integrated orbital systems market.