MDA Space Notes | 2026 Jefferies Space Virtual SummitSpace Virtual Summit
Great to get more colour from $MDA around their future ambitions during the Jeffries Space Virtual Summit yesterday. Some notes:
- $MDA won every full competitive constellation process it entered over the last 4 years: $GSAT, $TSAT, and $SATS (before cancellation). Speaks to how game changing the $SATX acquisition was.
- Pipeline is massive relative to revs: $40b CAD total pipeline, with around $30b CAD in satellite systems. Mgmt emphasizing this is 25x 2025 revenue. They also reiterated that they've been downselected for $10b of that (this is over the next 5 years and is not currently reflected in their backlog).
- Sovereignty demand is a real tailwind they been seeing over the last 12-18 months with scheduling becoming a major consideration for D2D constellations. Govs, militaries, MNOs, etc. are looking at suppliers who can get them into orbit over the next 2-3 years. With the inauguration of the Montreal facility which will able to produce roughly 400 sats per year, $MDA is extremely well positioned.
- 🚨 Mgmt's target is 4-6 constellation customers (currently have 2 anchor customers). They also spoke about the stickiness of these customers that would need to go through replenishment/expansion cycles every 5-10 years.
- $MDA moving into more recurring revenue avenues. Geointelligence via MDA CHORUS (set to launch by EOY), Robotics via MDA SKYMAKER, and more interestingly selective equity stakes in pieces of space infrastructure, on communication networks around the world.
- $MDA eyeing M&A in US, continental Europe, and other parts of the world to increase global footprint. Note they already have smaller operations in US, UK, and little bits of Europe.
All of this while analysts are projecting a modest ~11% CAGR through 2029. It's only a matter of time before the market finally catches up
Full transcript here:
Canada's MDA Space pushing for more global defence, aerospace contracts in sovereign-dominated industries
MDA has identified a US$40-billion pipeline of global opportunities over the next five years as countries around the world shore up their sovereign space technologies amid growing geopolitical turbulence.
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“Canada’s only so big. A necessary part of our (company’s) future is to be able to export to the U.S., as well as Europe and the rest of the world,” said MDA chief executive Mike Greenley, who has been at the helm for a decade.
MDA.. feels like the market is still underpricing this greatly
MDA Space still feels under-followed given its exposure to US space and defense demand and satellite infrastructure buildout.
It’s not a pure story stock. There is real backlog, real contracts, and actual cash flow, but the market still seems to be valuing it like a traditional aerospace contractor. If US space spending and satellite infrastructure keeps accelerating, I think this re-rates faster than people expect.
Curious if others think this is starting to break out or just early narrative noise?