u/Low-Guidance6118

Bumping this post from this spring. Since this post Ludmila remains at 1 goal, Byars is up to 6 (all from ST position), and Leon falls to 0 in last 365.

My question: how does Ludmila continue to earn striker starts? Many say she stretches the backline, but that never results in goals.
Follow up question, what’s the thought process behind bringing Leon on for Ludmila but not shifting Byars to ST?

Frankly I’m pretty dumbfounded by quite a few decisions Eidevall makes. I’m aware options are thin but it almost feels like he’s over managing. Put the best players in their best positions.

Wave fans should remember around this time last year when Wave were towards the top of the table going into the break, similar to this year. Many fans and analysts around the league warned us to be wary of the success we had thus far. The Wave were significantly over performing their xG at the time and many people (correctly) predicted eventually we would not score as much.

This season we’ve reached a similar crossroad. The Wave have had a slow start out of the break scoring 4 goals in 4 games, 3 of which by one player. The difference? This year the San Diego Wave are significantly underperforming their xG. Let’s dive into some of the numbers:

So far we have accumulated 32.7 xG (1st in league) throughout our first 17 games. That’s great, but the conversion hasn’t been there for some players as many have noted recently. Wave have scored 23 goals this season, a dismal 9.7 difference from the xG (worst in the league).

To put this into perspective, last season Wave completed the season with 41 goals on just 33.8 xG.

Currently the Wave have 4 players or over performing their xG:
Trinity Byars: 6 goals, 4.3 xG
Dundinha (SEI): 5 goals, 4.2 xG
Lia Godfrey: 4 goals. 3.8 xG
Kennedy Wesley: 1 goal, 0.4 xG

The Wave have 8 players nearly pacing their xG (<1 difference), most notably:
Melanie Barcenas: 3 goals, 3.7 xG
Kimmi Ascanio: 1 goal, 1.5 xG
Mimi Van Zanten: 1 goal, 1.3 xG
Perle Moroni: 0 goals, 1 xG

Lastly, Wave have 4 players significantly underperforming their xG:
Ludmila: 1 goal, 6 xG
Gabi Portilho: 0 goals, 2.5 xG
Gia Corley: 0 goals, 2.1 xG
Kenza Dali: 0 goals, 1.5 xG

That’s about half of players that are legitimately involved in Waves attack that are struggling to score.

It should be noted, though, that Wave carry a cumulative 33.9 xGOT (expected goals on target). This is a measure of the quality and placement of shots that land on target after the shot is taken. It’s helpful in giving some insight into how opposing goalies have been performing versus us. An xGOT of 33.9 resulting in just 23 goals is an indicator in some solid strikes that just came with bad luck and great saves similar to what we saw from Claudia Dickey in the most recent game versus Seattle.

The story unfortunately doesn’t end there. On the other side of the field the Wave have conceded 14.9 xG but have allowed 19 goals this season. This would indicate that the defense has done a pretty good job of limiting the amount of quality chances for the opposing attack but we’ve been scored on at a pretty high rate compared to expected. This mostly boils down to keeper play, as we’ve all noticed has been very shaky since losing Sheridan, as even the xGOT is 14.96, nearly identical to conceded xG.

Only one keeper is outplaying their xGOT faced:
Luisa Agudelo: 4 goals conceded, 4.02 xGOT faced, 0.03 goals prevented

The other three are severely underperforming their xGOT faced:
Didi Haracic: 7 goals conceded, 5.86 xGOT faced, -1.12 goals prevented
Leah Freeman (no longer rostered): 6 goals conceded, 4.58 xGOT faced, -1.42 goals prevented
Sandra Paños (made debut Sunday): 2 goals conceded, 0.50 xGOT faced, -1.5 goals prevented

These stats will likely be unsurprising to many fans, but it sheds some insight on how the Wave are underperforming on chances they’ve had AND chances they’ve allowed. While these numbers are just a sliver of the picture, it’s interesting to see the parallels to last season.

Wave currently have the highest xG difference in the league at 17.8 (next closest Kansas City Current at 9.7), yet only boast a 4 goal difference.

Do you guys believe we will see a regression to the mean led by the players we’ve seen underperforming their expected?

doubt this provides immediate help for the team but could be good in future years.

UPDATE: not Leon

Be on the lookout for AFC Toronto post on Instagram at 9 am Toronto time. They’ve posted this sneak peek announcing what seems to be a signing. Fellow Redditors in the NWSL subreddit and AFC Toronto/Canadian fans claim the watch is Leon’s as seen in a recent Instagram post.

All speculation of course but with the lack of playing time 2 games in a row after making roster could a move back to Canada be possible? We will see.

One of the players I doubted we’d be able to retain. Great news for us!

With the free agency window nearing its open, who do you guys expect to retain and who do you expect to leave? Additionally, what do you guys hope to bring in for next year’s squad?

Listed 2027 free agents below:
Kimmi Ascanio (19) - UFA
Mel Barcenas (19) - UFA
Trinity Byars (24) - Mutual
Leah Freeman (25) - UFA
Didi Haracic (35) - UFA
Nya Harrison (24) - UFA
Adriana Leon (34) - Mutual
Perle Morroni (29) - UFA
Gabi Portilho (31) - Mutual

For those unfamiliar, Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA) means the player is able to talk to any team they want beginning on July 1. Mutual means there’s another year on the contract should both the player and the club agree to continue the contract.