Soft books vs. Sharp books

Been looking into arbing in recent months after moving to a state with more books available. I've been doing research and am trying to understand better. What's the difference between Soft Books and Sharp Books? Are soft books basically all of the American sportsbooks?

Also, how do these two types affect you when trying to do something like arbitrage betting?

I know that limits happen quickly (and eventually) with soft books and bettors end up having to pivot or create new accounts with other people's information, so I'm just trying to get a sense of how to slow down that limiting process and understand how books operate.

Any help/insight is appreciated!

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u/LuckyDawg1731 — 3 days ago

New to arb betting - some questions before I fully jump in

Afternoon! I recently moved to TN where there are tons more sportsbooks options compared to FL. Been doing tons of research into Arbitrage Betting, but I am a classic deep researcher so haven't jumped in yet. Wanting to start right as NFL/CFB starts! Handful of things I wanted some advice on...

TN has access to like 12 US sportsbooks (FanDuel, DraftKings, MGM, Caesars, bet365, Fanatics, Hard Rock, theScore, Bally Bet, Action 24/7, Betly, and VIP Play). My hope is to start with 4-5 of these at about $500 bankroll each, then as I get limited I'd dive into another 4-5.

  1. Are there any of these books that people would recommend starting to Arb with? Any that limit quicker than others?

  2. Is it true that to avoid getting limiting faster I should try more live arbing rather than pre-game arbs? I've heard live arbing is tough, so I'd probably need to start with pre-game. Still curious.

  3. Should I avoid player props altogether? I've seen people say that player props are THE fastest way to get limited (unless live arbing perhaps.)

  4. Is it worth throwing in parlays or other non-arb bets to look like a degenerate gambler?

A guy I follow on Twitter also recommended getting into exchanges (Novig, BetOpenly), prediction markets (Kalshi, ProphetX, Polymarket, etc.) and global sportsbooks (bet105, BookMaker, BetOnline, etc.) after getting limited by American sportsbooks.

  1. Has anybody seen success from the exchange/prediction/global books?

  2. Would it be smart to just include those types of books right off the bat alongside some of the American sportsbooks? Or wait to get limited at the US books first?

Those are some of my initial questions and thought rumblings as I've done research. Appreciate any feedback from the community, and no need to answer all 6 if you don't want!

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u/LuckyDawg1731 — 10 days ago

To those upset with trading #26, I think it was the right move.

Lots of angry fans with the FO last night after what happened, trading down for 3 second round picks. Based on the options available I thought this was a shrewd decision for future moves.

1. Booth put our FO in a terrible position. We all know the history, his decision to trade 2 seconds to dump Reggie Jackson and 3 seconds to move up for Daron Holmes II put is in a bad place to make any deals. It's not the current regime's fault that the cupboard was bare and now they need to restock it. Even Bobby Marks on ESPN had us dead last in his leaguewide asset rankings that he published recently. This gets us back on the right path of draft assets.

2. Second rounders are worth more than you think. As mentioned above, 2nds can get you off bad contracts or move you up the draft, but ,conversely, they also have great value in trading FOR veterans too. 2nd rounders have been used as sweeteners to get good role players like Ayo Dosunmu, Jose Alvarado, and Coby White in recent deadline deals. Having more 2nd rounders down the line can absolutely be the difference between getting a good veteran via trade or having your hands tied like Denver always seems to be.

3. The talent options at #26 were good but not incredible. Yes, there were a handful of ok or good options like Reed Jr., Jefferson, Peat, and Evans, but clearly Nuggets brass didn't see anyone as a needle mover for next season. My guess is that they had a handful of players they liked at 26 but none of them fell. Rather than reach or take a flyer, they got value and traded back. I'd rather that instead of taking someone just to take someone. This shows they are looking for talent that can help immediately for Jokic next season.

Somebody good could still drop to #35 tonight. Evans, Veesar, and Meleek Thomas are on the board. One of them may or may not be there, but all were 1st round talents. Heck, they could trade back and gain more capital again if a team is willing.

I'm optimistic and hopeful in Tenzer/Wallace as they put together a new plan and potential trades. This decision to move back was a step in the right direction to restock our war chest, especially after multiple bungled jobs by our previous front office.

u/LuckyDawg1731 — 2 months ago

Carr to the Lakers #25

What an insane drop. Nasty athlete and incredible shooter. Rob Pelinka gets a gift again. Why do teams just GIVE the Lakers good players?

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u/LuckyDawg1731 — 2 months ago

Draft is a week from today! Who should we take at #26?

I really hope we keep this pick. We need affordable, cost-controlled deals plus some youth. This is a deep draft with more options than usual in the late 20’s. I’d hate to see us have to attach this pick to dump salary, but understand if we use it to get a playable veteran. Here’s some guys in no particular order I’d love that are possible in our #26 slot. 

  1. Bennet Stirtz - PG/SG Iowa. Denver is in dire need of more ball handling, regardless of Jamal staying or going. Not only does Stirtz have great handles, he’s one of the best shooters in the class. 
  2. Christian Anderson - PG Texas Tech. A little on the smaller side, but he is a pick-and-roll maestro who could make a difference with Joker day 1. Top 3-4 shooter in the class as well, would be a great backup PG. 
  3. Ebuka Okorie - PG Stanford. Lightning quick and can score on all 3 levels. Nuggets need guys that can drive and get to the hoop, and not many do that better than Okorie. 
  4. Isaiah Evans - SF Duke. Prototypical 3&D forward that the league covets. Great slasher who is used to playing alongside generational talents like Flagg/Boozer. 
  5. Allen Graves - SF/PF Santa Clara. Do everything forward who got better as the year went on. Still a little raw, but is young, could be a great two-way player if the coaches develop him well. 
  6. Dailyn Swain - SF Texas. Big and athletic, he plays hard on defense and consistently attacks the basket. Jump shot is still a work in progress, so if he fixes that then we might have another PWat on our hands. 
  7. Zuby Ejiofor - PF St. John’s. A little undersized big, but long, athletic, and plays really hard with a great motor. Slight reach in the 1st round, will go hard on defense though. 
  8. Tarris Reed Jr. - C UCONN. Powerful center with limited shooting range, but a great defender who can switch and rebound extremely well. Sneaky post player with nice array of moves. 
  9. Meleek Thomas - SG Arkansas. Absolute 3pt flame thrower in the same ilk of JR Smith. Good handles and athleticism with solid defensive upside when he tries.

 

Any preferences? or other prospects I missed?

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u/LuckyDawg1731 — 2 months ago

Seeing OG Anunoby ball out in the Finals AGAIN is hard to watch…

There have been a lot mistakes in the past 10 years of the Joker era by our FO. Bad trades, extensions, draft picks, etc., but imo none have haunted us more than screwing up with OG in the 2017 draft.

He‘s the perfect big-bodied, 3&D prototype to put around Jokic and the Connelly crew botched it. They were locked in on OG but traded back for assets, then TOR swooped in right before us and snagged him. To add insult to injury, we took Tyler Lydon. A Hunter Tyson clone who was out of the league in 3 years.

Tough to find a move (or non-move) that killed the Jokic era more. Legitimately think Denver has like 3 titles if we draft OG.

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u/LuckyDawg1731 — 3 months ago

Ejiofor and Reed Jr. reaches for Nuggets at pick 26?

Nuggets fan here doing research on some late 1st options. I can’t get a great consensus on these two bigs. Lots of people seem to like Zuby but he’s never mocked in the first. Reed seems like a great backup center, but also don’t see him cracking many mocks.

I’d prefer Denver going after a PG because their guard depth sucks. Would love one of Okorie/Stirtz/Anderson. If not them, then one of Graves/Swain/Evans at the forwards spots looks great too. If those options are all gone then I’m wondering if its not the worst idea to got for one of those defensive upside bigs in Reed/Ejiofor.

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u/LuckyDawg1731 — 3 months ago