u/Lupo201

Nothing has happened yet.

And I mean that, this is the worst macro you could design for this business, and $OPEN is improving its business QoQ.

→ Mortgage rates near 7%
→ Existing home sales at multi decade lows
→ Affordability the worst in a generation
→ Every seller who locked 3% in 2021 staying exactly where they are

That's the environment we have today. Now watch what happened since Kaz barged in.

Q3 2025: Kaz walks in.

→ $915M revenue, 2.2% margin, $20M contribution
→ 2,568 homes sold at $356K average
→ 1,169 homes bought, 51% of inventory over 120 days
→ Adjusted EBITDA minus $33M

Half the inventory stale and barely buying anything.

Q4 2025. The clear out.

→ $736M revenue, 1.0% margin, $7M contribution
→ 1,978 homes sold at $372K average
→ 1,706 homes bought, 33% of inventory over 120 days
→ Adjusted EBITDA minus $43M

Margin at one percent. A firesale, and a deliberate one. You can't rebuild a business while carrying someone else's mistakes.

Q1 2026. The turn.

→ $720M revenue, 4.4% margin, $32M contribution
→ 1,921 homes sold at $375K average
→ 2,474 homes bought, 10% of inventory over 120 days
→ Adjusted EBITDA minus $31M

Margin quadrupled and aged inventory from 33% to 10% in a single quarter.

Q2 2026. It compounds.

→ $883M revenue, 5.8% margin, $51M contribution
→ 2,339 homes sold at $378K average
→ 4,378 homes bought, 9% of inventory over 120 days
→ Adjusted EBITDA minus $4M

Contribution profit up 7x from Q4. Cost per acquisition down from $8,400 to $3,000.

In the worst housing market in decades.

Now run it forward. 20% growth in homes sold each quarter, at the 5 to 7% margins they're already delivering.

→ Q3 2026: 2,807 sold, $1.06B revenue, EBITDA -$7M to +$14M
→ Q4 2026: 3,368 sold, $1.27B revenue, EBITDA -$2M to +$23M
→ Q1 2027: 4,042 sold, $1.53B revenue, EBITDA +$4M to +$35M
→ Q2 2027: 4,850 sold, $1.83B revenue, EBITDA +$14M to +$50M
→ Q3 2027: 5,820 sold, $2.20B revenue, EBITDA +$26M to +$70M
→ Q4 2027: 6,984 sold, $2.64B revenue, EBITDA +$42M to +$95M

By the end of 2027 that's $10.5B annualised revenue. Three times where they were when Kaz walked in, with adjusted EBITDA running at $167M to $378M annualised.

And this assumes:

→ No rate cuts
→ No housing recovery
→ No margin lift from mortgage, title or escrow
→ Nothing from the agent integration
→ Just 20% a quarter at margins they're already printing

Every one of those is a lever they haven't pulled yet and that is coming. Kaz is innovating and creating an environment that blitzes the current traditional real estate transaction and saves users money whilst increasing their own margins.

The machine got built in the worst conditions imaginable and that's the part people are missing. The pivot is finally here. From here on out, I expect growth in the numbers, especially revenue and eventually margins.

People are comparing the business performance to the stocks price chart, when people should be doing the reverse.

This is a gift at these prices because the business is showing signs of a pivot, a pivot many will miss because they let the chart dictate their thoughts instead of the underlying business.

Patience and conviction.

nfa, long $OPEN 🏠

Opendoor is the title sponsor of the 2026 Pickleball World Championships, taking place October 30 through November 8 at Brookhaven Country Club in Dallas.

The move does not end at closing

Every year, 4 to 6 million American homes change hands. Our job is to make the sale simpler and give sellers more control over the timing.

Then comes the actual move. Boxes in every room. A grocery store you have to look up. Neighbors whose names you do not know yet.

Pickleball gives people an easy way to get out and meet someone.

Why pickleball

At open play, you put your paddle in the rack and play with whoever is next. You do not need to organize a group or know anyone beforehand. You can just show up.

The sport has grown fast. According to the Sports & Fitness Industry Association, 24.3 million Americans played pickleball in 2025. That was the fifth straight year it ranked among the country's fastest-growing sports.

"We help people sell and buy on their timeline. That's our part of the move. But the move itself isn't done when the papers are signed. It starts to feel done when you know your neighborhood and the people in it. Pickleball is one of the easiest ways to meet people, and this event brings that to life on a huge scale. We're proud to be part of it."
— Morgan Brown, Chief Growth Officer, Opendoor

What we are doing at the championships

This year's event has a new name: the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships.

Last year, the tournament drew more than 60,000 fans. A record 4,400 players from 38 countries competed in more than 6,000 matches.

Our name will appear in the kitchen on Championship Court. In pickleball, the kitchen is the no-volley zone next to the net. It is at the center of the action and visible throughout every televised match.

Fans can also find us on Pickleball Boulevard, where they can play, meet professional players, and talk with us about their own moves.

"Pickleball is a platform for bringing people together, fostering community, and creating a lasting impact far beyond the competition itself. This partnership represents the kind of community-focused collaboration that elevates the Opendoor Pickleball World Championships and gives fans an experience they'll remember for generations."
— Connor Pardoe, Founder and CEO, Carvana PPA Tour

What comes next

Amateur registration is already open, and thousands of players will compete alongside the pros. We will share more about what we are planning on site as the event gets closer.