NioCorp's 2026 FS: it's not just NdPr — breaking down the economics of all 8 Elk Creek products
NioCorp released its updated 2026 NI 43-101 Feasibility Study today, expanding Elk Creek to 8 Made-in-USA critical minerals over a 40-year mine life, targeting $37.4B in life-of-mine gross revenue and an estimated $4.1B pre-tax NPV8. Average EBITDA margin across the project life is ~67%.
8 products significantly changed the revenue balance so I broke out how revenue and volume actually split across all 8 products.
THE 5 RARE-EARTH PRODUCTS (grouped into 3 baskets)
Magnetic basket — NdPr, Dy, Tb oxides
- LoM avg. production: 756 t/yr
- LoM revenue: $9,219M (24.6% of total mine revenue)
- FS realized price: $138–$4,515/kg
Medium basket — SEG carbonate (Sm-Eu-Gd)
- LoM avg. production: 354 t/yr
- LoM revenue: $113M (0.3% of total mine revenue)
- FS realized price: $8.95/kg
Heavy basket — Heavy REE carbonate (HREC)
- LoM avg. production: 262 t/yr
- LoM revenue: $46M (0.1% of total mine revenue)
- FS realized price: $5.05/kg
Combined REE: 1,372 t/yr, $9.38B revenue (25.1% of total).
THE OTHER 3 PRODUCTS
Niobium — Ferroniobium (FeNb)
- LoM avg. production: 8,095 t/yr
- LoM revenue: $9,780M (26.1% of total mine revenue)
- FS realized price: $23.80/lb (~$52.47/kg)
Scandium — Sc2O3 powder
- LoM avg. production: 118 t/yr
- LoM revenue: $14,331M (38.3% of total mine revenue — the single largest revenue line in the whole FS)
- FS realized price: $1,563/lb (~$3,447/kg)
Titanium — TiCl4
- LoM avg. production: 59,820 t/yr
- LoM revenue: $3,945M (10.5% of total mine revenue)
- FS realized price: $0.85/lb (~$1,874/tonne)
Scandium alone is bigger than all 5 REE products combined. Niobium is right behind it. Between the two, Nb + Sc + Ti = 74.9% of total mine revenue.
REVENUE SHARE BY PRODUCT, RANKED (of $37.4B total LoM revenue)
- Scandium (Sc2O3) — 38.3%
- Niobium (FeNb) — 26.1%
- REE Magnetic (NdPr+Dy+Tb) — 24.6%
- Titanium (TiCl4) — 10.5%
- REE Medium (SEG carbonate) — 0.3%
- REE Heavy (HREC) — 0.1%
Scandium and niobium alone make up 64.4% of the entire revenue model. The 3 non-REE products (Nb+Sc+Ti) make up 74.9%, meaning rare earths are about a quarter of what this mine is worth.
FS PRICE VS. CURRENT SPOT (AUG 2026)
- NdPr oxide: FS $138.41/kg vs. $97.40/kg China domestic (SMM) / $110–125/kg ex-China contract
- FeNb: FS $52.47/kg vs. $43.02/kg SMM / $38.83/kg Brazilian delivered China
- Sc2O3: FS $3,447/kg vs. $751.57/kg China bulk (SMM) — but $3,500–4,200/kg in the Western market post-export-controls, which is basically right where the FS assumption sits
- TiCl4: FS ~$1,874/tonne, sitting between China spot (~$700–1,000/tonne) and US/EU contract prices (~$2,300–2,700/tonne)
The scandium gap is the one worth watching closest — NioCorp's pricing is explicitly modeled on the non-China market that Chinese export restrictions created, not the depressed China-domestic price. If that policy environment shifts, that's the single biggest swing factor in the whole revenue model.
Figures are FS assumptions and spot prices as of Aug 2026, both subject to change. Disclosure: long NB.
I'm looking forward to tomorrow's presentation.