u/MrStudRockets

Look, yesterday kind of sucked the wind out of a lot of the bullish sentiment on this sub. We’ve now had a day to process the report, dig in a bit, and start looking FORWARD. This is what the analysis are doing, and analysts are either reaffirming px targets or raising them as Oppenheimer has done here.

Some notes.

2026 FY rev guide is 525-550 million. ONDS has only done 135 million in revs in H1. This leaves $400 MILLION to be done in the back half of the year.

- Look at the H2 ‘26 revenue #s.
- Q3 estimate $150 million. (Approx 80% rev growth sequentially)
- Q4 estimate $260 million (Approx 75% rev growth vs Q3)

I’m sorry, but if you can’t look at that and see the flywheel working I’m not sure I can help you.

News flow - remains positive - Drones are here to stay, the defense sector is undergoing a multi generational shift. We are still in the infancy of drone warfare and civil drone use cases.

Technicals - We are at a critical spot on the charts. Going to open today just above the 200 day SMA, and right above the 20 and 50 day weekly SMA. Watching these levels to see where we head next. I can’t say what we go next, but this will give you a good clue.

Now that I’ve had time to digest and dig into earnings, my investment thesis remains intact. The tailwinds and growth are still in place. As such I see no reason to panic and sell anything and will continue to play the long game here as I have for the last 5 years - and hopefully the next 5.

Things are moving fast, there is a lot to digest daily. Don’t let a subreddit panic distract you from the investment thesis!

We just officially crossed the 15,000 member mark right as we head into one of the most critical weeks of the year!

What an incredible milestone for r/ONDS. This community started as a small group of forward-thinking investors tracking a disruptive technology, and now we are 15k strong. Every single daily discussion, deep-dive DD, chart analysis, and shared piece of news has built this page into the ultimate hub for Ondas Holdings investors.

The timing couldn't be more perfect. With earnings dropping this week, the eyes of the market will be on ONDS, but our eyes are on the long-term vision. Whether you have been holding since the early days or just joined us recently, your voice and your research matter here.

Let's keep the discussions sharp, the analysis objective, and the energy high as the numbers drop.

Thank you to every single one of the 15,000+ shareholders and enthusiasts making this community great.

Buckle up, r/ONDS. Let's see what this week brings! 🚀

Found this from @BMSInvests on X.

Source to original article: https://www.ynet.co.il/economy/article/hyag00hkime

TRANSLATED TO ENGLISH:

Who wouldn't want to meet the former head of the Mossad? Behind the scenes of the appointment of Dedi Barnea
The former Mossad chief has been appointed chairman and global president of the American company Ondes Defense, joining a long line of senior Israeli security officials who have been recruited. What is the strategy behind these moves, and how did a company that until a few years ago was considered gray become one of the most interesting in the defense-tech industry and on Wall Street?
Tal Shahaf | Published:08:01

The announcement yesterday (Monday) of the appointment of former Mossad head Dedi Barnea to the position of global president and chairman of Ondas Defense surprised many. What does the former Mossad head have to do with promoting the interests of an American-owned weapons company? But anyone who has been following its activities over the past two years can see the guiding hand here: Barnea joins many Israeli defense industry executives who have been recruited to the company's ranks. In addition, Ondas has acquired several Israeli defense-tech companies in recent years.

Ondes Defense is the Israeli subsidiary of Ondes Inc. (formerly Ondes Holdings), which is traded on Wall Street. Until 2021, it was a lackluster company in the communications sector, but then the defense-tech market woke up and Ondes changed focus and began acquiring startups at a rapid pace. Most of these companies are Israeli and they have an advantage: they bring proven experience from the battlefield, which makes it easier for the US government and European governments to convince themselves that their technology is superior.

Bonds notes that Barnea will play a central role in developing, implementing, and integrating advanced technologies in the security sector and in accelerating the company's expansion. But it is doubtful whether the former head of the Mossad brings with him any unique advantage in developing technologies for the battlefield. Although in his previous role he led the Mossad to adopt technologies from the world of intelligence, it is difficult to say that drones and robots are his specialty. It can be assumed that the main reason for the appointment is Barnea's ability to open doors in the military headquarters and defense ministries of many countries in the Western world. Who among us wouldn't want to meet the former head of the Israeli Mossad?

Another piece of the puzzle
Barnea is another piece of the puzzle that Ondes is rapidly building. The company stated in a press release that he will play a central role in the company's growth and expansion plans, in the development, implementation and future assessments, in the acquisition of companies and in the global deployment of an integrated security platform of next-generation defense systems. These are the hottest terms in the security world today, but they are part of the company's existing agenda. Barnea simply joins it.

Eric Brock, the founder of Ondes and its chairman and CEO, does not often give interviews. From his past statements, it is difficult to identify a special connection to Israel or Judaism. The series of acquisitions of Israeli companies in recent years seems like part of a strategic plan to build a global defense-tech company and not out of a desire to promote Israeli interests. Brock raises large sums from private investors and Nasdaq, and uses them to acquire companies that defense customers around the world will like. The fact that they are Israeli is just a side effect.

Upon Barnea joining the company, Brock said he brings with him "a combination of cutting-edge operational experience, strategic judgment, technological leadership and international connections." He also added: "Barnea understands how to lead an organization through a profound transformation process adapted to the realities of modern warfare, and how to transform emerging technologies into operational capabilities that create real strategic advantage. This experience is directly relevant to the next phase of Ondes' growth as we combine advanced technologies, operating companies, engineering capabilities and customer relationships into a unified security platform."

Drones, robotics and software
Since 2023, Ondes has acquired, among other things, the drone company Airobotics, the attack drone company Iron Drone, control of SPO Smart Precision electro-optics from Kibbutz Shamir, the drone interception company Sentrycs, the ground robotics company Robo-team, the combat engineering company INDO Earth Moving, the military software company Omnisys, the robotic vehicle company Apeiro Motion, and the mine clearance company M4 Defence.

There are also non-Israeli companies in this catalog. In 2021, Ondas acquired drone company American Robotics, marking its entry into the defense-tech field. This year, it acquired autonomous drone company Dzyne, American observation balloon company World View Enterprises, US Department of War supplier Mistral from Israeli businessman Eyal Banai, and British military intelligence company Cyberhawk. These companies were grouped under a new division – Ondas Sentinel – which is equivalent to Israel’s Ondas Defence.

In a conversation with Ynet about a month ago, Patrick Houston - the chief operating officer (COO) and legal counsel of the parent company Ondes Inc. - said that the company's uniqueness compared to the giant veteran companies is the rapid pace of development that is tailored to the demands of today's customers. "We receive excellent technologies, proven on the battlefield, but we don't stop there. We combine all these technologies together so that they all talk, share information, so that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. We also have a very strong partnership with Palantir (the successful military AI company T.S.) and we leverage it. And as an American public company, we have access to the American capital market, which not many other companies do."
Like Barnea, Houston also comes after a rich career in the security forces, with 35 years in the US Army, and a few more years in the Pentagon. You can recognize the pattern: raising money from American investors, bringing in technologies from security startups, recruiting executives with connections and a deep security background – and building a company that investors will love, with revenues, and predictable deals and fat security contracts.

Many Israeli officers joined the ranks of the company
Recruiting senior officers and senior managers from the defense industries is one of Ondas's most prominent features. Oshri Lugassi, former Chief Engineering Officer and VP of Marketing and Sales at Rafael, was appointed as Co-CEO of the Ondas Autonomous Systems (OAS) autonomy division, Aerobotix founder Meir Kleiner was appointed president of OAS, Zvika Yarom, who was the director of the land division at IAI, was appointed director of Ondas' land and advanced systems arm. Brigadier General (Res.) Yaniv Rotem, former Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Dr. Irit Idan, former VP of R&D at Rafael, Ronen Stern from the OurCrowd Foundation – were appointed as members of the company's board of directors, and there are others.

Ultimately, Ondes conveys the feeling of an American company when it comes to defense customers in the US, a European feeling when dealing with customers in Europe thanks to the German ONBERG Autonomous Systems that it controls, and in Israel it is perceived as a very Israeli company thanks to all the Israeli executives employed by it, which has already led to a series of deals with the defense establishment.

The concern in the Israeli defense industry about Ondes' blitz on the Israeli defense ecosystem is understandable. With the help of the Israeli security experts it recruited, and with the help of American investor money, it has built an extraordinary network of companies that provides a solution to all the needs of the modern battlefield. It is not yet tickling the deal volumes of the large aerospace companies in Israel or the US, but it is on its way there.
If you look at the company's financial performance, you can see the results of its strategy. After a period of volatility, it is continuously rising. The increase in the share price can be attributed to investor optimism amid strong demand for drones and anti-drone systems around the world. A new deal between Dzyne and the Australian Department of Defense has bolstered investor confidence.

In recent days, it was revealed that the giant fund BlackRock owns 7.2% of Ondes, which drew the attention of Nasdaq to the company, after a period in which it had difficulty getting rid of bearish pressure. Now, it seems that investor sentiment is starting to change. After falling to a 52-week low with a share value of $2.01 last August, it has recorded an extraordinary comeback and climbed 307.5% to a price of $13.97. Investors are eyeing its future business, as the order backlog has climbed to $457 million. Analysts rate it a "strong buy," with a target price of $18.61 per share, an impressive increase of 154%. It seems that the Israeli defense-tech industry is fulfilling its potential through Ondes, which it has failed to do in most cases before.

True situational awareness is the ability to perceive, understand, and effectively anticipate the forces moving in the environment around you. In the financial markets, macro-level assumptions often blind investors, whereas micro-level execution quietly thrives on the ground.

While that fund was busy losing its shirt, smart money looking for real, operational situational awareness has been quietly flowing into $ONDS.

As Ondas heads toward its highly anticipated Q2 2026 earnings report on August 13, 2026, investors who possess actual market awareness see a coiled spring. Unlike over-hyped software plays, Ondas builds physical and digital "situational awareness" for the defense and critical infrastructure sectors. Through its newly launched LADOS system—a platform fusing drones, robotics, and sensors—Ondas is transforming into a high-margin defense prime.

Key Operational Catalysts Heading Into Earnings

Underlying fundamentals reveals massive operational momentum heading into the Q2 print:

The BlackRock Vote of Confidence: Just days before earnings, institutional behemoth BlackRock revealed a massive 7.2% stake in Ondas, absorbing 38.1 million shares. Institutional validation of this scale immediately ahead of an earnings print signals deep fundamental conviction.
Unprecedented Revenue Growth Curve: In Q1, Ondas posted a 10-fold year-over-year revenue increase to $50.1 million. Following aggressive defense M&A—including the transformative acquisition of DZYNE Technologies—consensus Wall Street outlooks aggressively raised the full-year 2026 revenue forecast by 33% to a staggering $525.6 million.

Expanding Profit Margins: Scale is rapidly driving efficiency. The company’s gross profit margins have shown consistent sequential expansion, climbing from 35% to 42%, and hitting 49% in Q1 2026. This indicates that a better product mix is allowing for excellent absorption of fixed costs.

Rapid Backlog and Order Intake Velocity: The company’s pro forma defense backlog stands at a powerful $457 million. Proving that demand is accelerating, Ondas secured over $70 million in new orders in just a four-week window leading into late July, driven by global counter-UAS and loitering munition demand.

Expanding International Moat: International defense contracts are multiplying. Ondas recently expanded its global footprint by securing a $6.9 million Australian Defence order for its counter-drone solutions. It also secured a strategic $4.8 million U.S. Navy contract via its World View subsidiary for stratospheric maritime domain awareness.

Strategic Ecosystem Integrations: Ondas is actively intertwining its technology with Tier-1 defense primes. Its Sentrycs unit recently announced a collaboration to integrate its cyber-over-RF technology into Lockheed Martin’s Sanctum counter-UAS platform.

A Fortress Balance Sheet: While peers face dilution risks, Ondas carries a massive liquidity cushion of over $1.0 billion in cash and minimal debt. This grants the company an incredibly safe runway to execute its backlogs.

Powder Keg for a Short Squeeze: Short interest in ONDS has stubbornly remained above 30% for over five months. Wall Street analysts maintain a consensus price target of $19.81. With the stock consolidating in the mid-$7 range, any positive guidance or earnings beat could instantly trigger a violent, explosive short squeeze.

The true situational awareness requires looking past the noise of macro fund liquidations and seeing where actual contract revenue is flowing. Ondas is sitting on an avalanche of defense demand, expanding margins, an unprecedented backlog, and a stamp of approval from BlackRock. While a certain hedge fund lacked the awareness to survive July, r/ONDS should understand exactly where the puck is heading on August 13.

Let me preface, I hate posts about short term levels and momentum but the chart recently has been telling a story. This is how I’m reading the price action near term, nothing more. I don’t trade Ondas, I’m a long term investor - full stop.

Now that disclosures are out of the way, let’s dive into the last few days of trading.

First, on Tuesday we had record volume coming off a 9 month low (7 straight down weeks). Bulls were due a chance to get ONDS moving up and they took advantage of the easy money. It only took 3 up days to erase the prior 3 down weeks - a good omen we are not done. The green straight line is where we ran into resistance yesterday @8.5, after a 30% run from the lows of Fridays session.

Second, let’s dive into today and discuss the 20-day EMA (green sloping line) currently sitting at 7.71

We traded down to this level on low (relative) volume. There was no conviction in the selling, more like a day off for the buyers. Support is trying to be set, and recent volume trends say this is just a cool off day rather than the end of a run. Use the 20 day EMA as a level to watch, we don’t want to close below it.

So where do we go if we hold the 20 day EMA?

Next level is the 9-9.5 range. Expect to hover between the 20 day on the low end and the 50/200 day mark on the upper end until earnings in a few weeks. I don’t think we breach 10 before earnings.

Edit: Let me ensure my take is clear. I think we will run up to the $9+ range in the next few weeks (15-20% higher than current price). I do not think we get above and sustain above $10 before earnings.

Some non technical analysis thoughts:

- $70 million in orders over 4 weeks is astounding. This is more than the total revenues ALL OF 2025!

- The House passing the 1.15 billion defense bill is a good headline. Realistically though the Senate still has to pass it, and the Senate is on Summer recess. I don’t expect movement on this until after the mid term elections - possibly December 2026 or early 2027. Look at this as a more long term catalyst than an immediate boost (there are billions of cUAS money in it).

Cc u/key-damage3784

Alright, alright, I know these are made up lines on a chart. Yes, this latest down draft has been brutal. Yes, there are many of you holding bags from buys over the last 9 months at current price.

BUT…

I believe we are starting to see capitulation of sellers here. Today will be the 5th day in a row of 100 Million + volume. This has not happened since mid-late November of last year (10 straight days over 100 million volume). You can see where the stock went afterwards.

This in and of itself is noteworthy, but add to this we are currently around the exact same price levels as we were in November. There are buyers at this level and they are gobbling up everything they can right now.

If (hopefully when) we close green today, after dropping all the way to $6.22 intraday on heavy volume, my market senses tell me we have reached an inflection point.

Can I be wrong? Absolutely. The signs are there however, we’re in the midst of capitulation. It’s time to be buying here.

CAN YOU SMEEEEEEEEELLLLLLL WHAT THE BROCK IS COOKIN?!?!

https://m.youtube.com/shorts/\_dgCt5gOLV8