r/ONDS

ONDS is a drone and defense company most people have never heard of, and 44% of its float is sold short. 235 million shares, per the latest FINRA data. Other drone names run 5 to 21%.

Here's what the shorts are betting against: revenue up 13x last quarter to a record $83.8 million, and full-year guidance just raised. The stock ran past $10 on earnings, then faded back to $9. The market clearly hasn't picked a winner yet.

So that's the setup. A business growing that fast with that many shares bet against it means somebody is about to be very wrong. And if it's the shorts, 235 million shares all need to find the exit at once.

Bonus from the options chain since someone will ask: there are 2.4 open calls for every put on this thing. 1.25 million call contracts on a $9 stock, and over 90,000 of them sit at the $10 strike, one dollar overhead. The dealers who sold those calls have to buy stock as the price climbs toward $10. So a move through $10 has two forced buyers behind it at once: shorts covering and dealers hedging. That's how squeezes compound. (CBOE data, OI as of yesterday's close.)

Also the weirdest line in the whole chain: somebody owns 118,000 January 2028 $5 puts. It's the single biggest position in the name, and it is not retail-shaped. Make of that what you will.

I remember when people were pretty down on things not too long ago. Honestly it feels overdue for the recovery we've had given what's been happening behind the scenes. We are still down since March, but the company has been continually stacking more wins: counter-drone deals, a defense tender from Israel, and solid order flow.

What has me staying long here is that the long-term goals are actually moving forward. They raised their FY2026 revenue target, and you've got institutional money like BlackRock, Oddo BHF, and Cetera all holding or adding stakes. Analysts continue to price in meaningful upside from here too, which tells you there's still conviction.

The near-term chart is still choppy after the beating we took, but the news flow has absolutely been worth keeping an eye on. It kinda feels like dilution is the only major concern for shareholders at this given moment but I could be wrong.

What's your read on whether these defense wins actually translate to revenue growth fast enough to justify the new guidance?

Look, yesterday kind of sucked the wind out of a lot of the bullish sentiment on this sub. We’ve now had a day to process the report, dig in a bit, and start looking FORWARD. This is what the analysis are doing, and analysts are either reaffirming px targets or raising them as Oppenheimer has done here.

Some notes.

2026 FY rev guide is 525-550 million. ONDS has only done 135 million in revs in H1. This leaves $400 MILLION to be done in the back half of the year.

- Look at the H2 ‘26 revenue #s.
- Q3 estimate $150 million. (Approx 80% rev growth sequentially)
- Q4 estimate $260 million (Approx 75% rev growth vs Q3)

I’m sorry, but if you can’t look at that and see the flywheel working I’m not sure I can help you.

News flow - remains positive - Drones are here to stay, the defense sector is undergoing a multi generational shift. We are still in the infancy of drone warfare and civil drone use cases.

Technicals - We are at a critical spot on the charts. Going to open today just above the 200 day SMA, and right above the 20 and 50 day weekly SMA. Watching these levels to see where we head next. I can’t say what we go next, but this will give you a good clue.

Now that I’ve had time to digest and dig into earnings, my investment thesis remains intact. The tailwinds and growth are still in place. As such I see no reason to panic and sell anything and will continue to play the long game here as I have for the last 5 years - and hopefully the next 5.

Things are moving fast, there is a lot to digest daily. Don’t let a subreddit panic distract you from the investment thesis!