⚾ SEA @ DET — Under 8.5 (-109)

Comerica Park | June 6, 2026

Bryce Miller is the headline here, and his Statcast numbers since returning from the oblique strain that cost him the first seven weeks of the season are genuinely elite. In his starts back, he is sitting at 1-0 with a 1.71 ERA, and the underlying metrics back up every bit of it. His average exit velocity allowed sits at 85.5 mph, his hard hit rate is just 25%, and his expected wOBA against is .221, all numbers that rank among the very best in the American League right now. When his mid-90s fastball and plus slider are working together the way they have been since his return, opposing lineups have almost nothing to work with. The Tigers have not been lighting up pitching this season, and Miller is not a starter they are going to solve tonight.

On the Detroit side, Keider Montero has been one of the more pleasant surprises in the AL this year. His 3.69 ERA and 1.00 WHIP across 61 innings look strong on the surface, and the improved command tells the real story underneath. His walk rate percentile jumped from 48th in 2025 all the way to the 92nd percentile this season, and his overall pitching run value has gone from the 20th percentile to the 89th. He has gone at least six innings while allowing one run or fewer four times already this year and has been one of the more reliable rotation pieces on a Detroit staff that has dealt with significant injuries. The Seattle lineup will need to work for everything they get against him.

The one legitimate concern for this play is the weather. First pitch is set for 1:10 PM ET with temperatures around 81°F and a 13 mph wind blowing from right to left at Comerica Park. That wind direction combined with the heat is projecting a 1.4x home run rate boost compared to the average game tonight, and there are storm cells moving through Detroit around game time that could cause delays. If the game gets disrupted and bullpens take over early, the variance increases. There is also a pitch count reality with Miller after his injury return, meaning he likely does not go deep tonight and Seattle leans on their pen for multiple innings.

Comerica Park still ranks near the bottom of MLB in overall run scoring despite the warm conditions, which helps keep the ceiling in check. With minus 109 juice and an 8.5 total to work with, there is enough cushion to absorb one big inning and still cash. Monitor the storm situation before lock and trust the arms. Lock it in.

⚾ NYM @ SD — Under 7 (+102)

Petco Park | June 5, 2026

Getting plus money on an under at Petco Park with two capable arms is not something you turn down, and the setup here is more compelling than the line suggests.

Christian Scott has quietly become the most reliable starter on the Mets staff, and he is riding the best stretch of his young career heading into tonight. Coming back from UCL surgery that cost him all of 2025, the 26-year-old righty has now tossed 12 consecutive scoreless innings across his last two outings, including an eight-strikeout gem against the Marlins last Saturday. His ERA sits at 2.97 across seven starts with 38 strikeouts against just 16 walks, and his 82 mph sweeper with 18 inches of horizontal break has become one of the nastier individual pitches in the National League. He has allowed three runs or fewer in every single start this season and has at least five strikeouts in six of the seven. The one caveat is his 1.38 WHIP, which tells you he is still putting runners on base more than you would like, so he will need to be sharper in sequences than his recent starts when he gets into trouble.

On the other side, Michael King enters tonight in a bit of a different position than we have seen from him all year. After starting the season at 4-2 with a 2.31 ERA, he has now dropped consecutive decisions while allowing four or more earned runs in each of his last two starts. His ERA has climbed to 3.18 with a 1.13 WHIP, and the home run ball has been a nagging problem all season at 1.77 per nine innings through his first eleven starts. The Mets lineup may be missing key pieces but has enough to punish King if he continues to leave pitches over the middle of the plate.

The park and conditions handle the rest. Petco Park is as pitcher-friendly as it gets, the marine layer at June evening games keeps the ball from carrying, and tonight is looking at around 65 to 68°F with a 10 mph west wind and zero percent chance of rain. Scott in a roll, plus money, plus Petco Park. Take it. Lock it in.

⚾ NYM @ SEA — Under 7.5 (-119)

T-Mobile Park | June 2, 2026

Yeah, we are running it back for a second straight night at T-Mobile Park with the same matchup. The venue and the Mets' offense are not going to change overnight, and the pitching setup today gives us just as much reason to like the under as yesterday did.

Logan Gilbert is coming off the best start of his 2026 season, six shutout innings against the White Sox with nine strikeouts and just one hit allowed. He has now lowered his ERA to 3.69 on the year with a 1.11 WHIP and an excellent 69 to 16 strikeout to walk ratio across 68.1 innings. His walk rate of 5.6% is elite, his stuff is trending back toward his 2024 All-Star form, and a depleted Mets lineup that is still without Francisco Lindor and Francisco Alvarez is walking into a very tough assignment. Seattle is also riding a seven-game winning streak right now and playing some of the best baseball in the AL West, so the energy at T-Mobile Park is real.

On the other side, Jonah Tong is a 22-year-old making just his third MLB appearance, and while his surface numbers look spotless at 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA, there is a lot of caution warranted here. He has only thrown 6.2 major league innings total, all in a bulk reliever role behind an opener, and his underlying numbers already show a 1.19 WHIP meaning baserunners have been on. In his nine Triple-A starts this year he posted a 5.68 ERA and walked multiple batters in every single outing. The strikeout stuff is genuinely electric at 13.0 per nine, but the command has been shaky, and tonight he is walking into a hot Mariners ballpark where Julio Rodriguez is playing the best baseball of his career. If Tong gets into trouble early and is pulled before the fifth inning, the Mets bullpen takes over and that introduces variance for the under.

The saving grace is the ballpark and the conditions. T-Mobile Park remains the most pitcher-friendly venue in baseball, with the marine layer and constant humidity suppressing the ball from carrying. Tonight is around 52°F and damp, ideal pitching weather. The Mets have hit under in 64% of their games this season, and Gilbert is locked in right now. Trust the setup. Lock it in.

⚾ NYM @ SEA — Under 7.5 (-130)

T-Mobile Park | June 1, 2026

Emerson Hancock has quietly become one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League this season and is the centerpiece of this play. The 26-year-old Mariners righty comes in at 4-2 with a 2.78 ERA and has been virtually untouchable in every single start, going at least five innings while allowing three runs or fewer in each outing on the year. He struck out 14 Kansas City Royals in his most recent start, the most strikeouts by any pitcher in 2026, and his 46 to 6 strikeout to walk ratio from earlier in the season reflects elite command that has only gotten better. His stuff is legitimate, his results are legitimate, and a Mets lineup that has been one of the weaker offensive units in the National League all season long is not a favorable matchup for him to stumble against.

Austin Warren comes in for New York with a sparkling 1.40 ERA but there is a significant caveat attached to it. His 1.19 WHIP tells a different story, signaling that he has been allowing baserunners at a rate that is inconsistent with that ERA and that regression is a real possibility tonight. The good news for the under is that even if Seattle gets to him for three or four runs, the Mets offense has consistently struggled to generate crooked numbers and will need to work hard for anything they put on the board against Hancock.

The venue and situational trends make this even more compelling. T-Mobile Park has been rated the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in baseball for several years running, with the constant humidity and marine layer at sea level keeping the ball from carrying. Tonight's conditions reinforce that further — around 51 to 55°F at first pitch, cloudy skies, 6 mph wind, and zero percent chance of rain. And the Mets have hit the under in 32 of their first 50 games this season, a 64% clip that is the most consistent under trend of any team in baseball right now.

The one genuine threat is Julio Rodriguez, who erupted for 10 home runs in May alone and is carrying serious momentum into this series. If Warren makes a mistake in the zone, Rodriguez has the power to make it hurt. But with Hancock dealing in a pitcher's paradise and the Mets unable to keep pace offensively, this under is well positioned. Lock it in.

⚾ KC @ TEX — Under 7.5 (-105)

Globe Life Field | May 31, 2026

Michael Wacha is the backbone of this play and has been one of the steadiest arms in the American League all season. The 34-year-old veteran comes in at 4-2 with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP, built entirely on elite command and soft contact generation. He is not a strikeout pitcher by nature, but his 83rd percentile chase rate, 88 mph average exit velocity allowed, and a pitching run value in the 92nd percentile tell you everything you need to know about how hitters are faring against him. He consistently goes deep into games, his six-pitch arsenal keeps lineups completely off balance, and a Texas Rangers offense that has been streaky all season is walking into a very tough matchup tonight.

On the other side, Jack Leiter is the wild card. He comes in at 2-4 with a 4.75 ERA and has allowed at least three runs in each of his last five starts, with four home runs surrendered over his most recent two outings alone. The strikeout stuff is real, averaging over 10 punchouts per nine innings, but the home run ball and occasional command lapses have kept his ERA north of four all season. The good news for the under is that the Royals are not a lineup that consistently punishes mistakes at a high rate, and if Leiter can limit the long ball, Wacha will almost certainly take care of the rest.

The venue is a non-factor in the best possible way. Globe Life Field keeps the roof closed for well over 80% of home games, and with temperatures in the upper 80s tomorrow in Arlington, it will be climate-controlled and dome-like tonight. No wind, no heat, no weather variables working against the under whatsoever.

The juice at -105 is as soft as you will find for an under play with a legitimate ace going. Trust Wacha and trust the dome. Lock it in.

⚾ MIA @ NYM — Under 7.5 (-120)

Citi Field | May 29, 2026

Max Meyer has been one of the best kept secrets in baseball this season and tonight he is the entire foundation of this play. The 27-year-old Marlins righty comes in at 5-0 with a 2.52 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an absurd 68 to 22 strikeout to walk ratio across 60.2 innings. His breaking ball combination of a slider and sweeper ranks in the 98th percentile in run value league-wide, and he has redistributed his arsenal so effectively this year that hitters genuinely do not know what is coming pitch to pitch. This is the third overall pick from 2020 finally living up to the billing, and a banged-up Mets lineup standing in between him and win number six is not a favorable matchup.

Speaking of banged up, the Mets are an absolute mess tonight. Francisco Lindor, Jorge Polanco, Francisco Alvarez, Tyrone Taylor, and Luis Robert Jr. are all unavailable for this game. New York is sitting at 23-33 with a run differential of minus 29 on the season. Whatever offensive threat this lineup posed on paper has been stripped away by the injury report, and they are going to be sending out a patchwork group against the best version of Max Meyer we have ever seen.

Freddy Peralta on the other side is the one variable that gives you pause. His ERA sits at 3.52 with a bloated 1.27 WHIP and eight home runs allowed in 61.1 innings, and his walk rate has been a recurring problem all season. Miami can make him work and punish him for his mistakes, though the Marlins offense ranks among the weakest in the NL so it would require some help from Peralta's own command issues. Weather at Citi Field tonight is warm at around 70 to 76°F with very light wind at just 3 mph and zero chance of rain, which is clean conditions for both pitchers.

Meyer alone makes this worth backing. With a decimated Mets lineup and one of the hottest arms in the game taking the ball, the under at 7.5 is the right side tonight. Lock it in.

⚾ ATL @ BOS — Under 8 (-112)

Fenway Park | May 26, 2026

This is a premium pitching matchup from top to bottom. Ranger Suarez has been one of the best starters in the American League this season, carrying a 2.40 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and a 43 to 11 strikeout to walk ratio across 48.2 innings. He has tossed six or more scoreless innings in three of his last four starts and generates weak contact at an elite level, holding opponents to a .253 wOBA and a 34.4% hard hit rate. The Braves lineup is dangerous, but Suarez's ability to get weak grounders and punch out hitters in key spots makes him a nightmare matchup even for Atlanta's best.

On the other side, Spencer Strider looks like his old self again. After starting the year on the IL with an oblique strain and coming back through rehab, Strider has put together four strong starts sitting at 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He just struck out nine Marlins in his most recent outing while generating 15 whiffs, and opponents are hitting a measly .171 against him through four starts. His stuff is back to where it was in his dominant 2023 form, and a Boston lineup that has struggled to generate consistent offense is not going to pose many problems for him tonight.

The one real concern is the venue and the weather. Fenway Park is playing at around 80°F tonight with a 9.2 mph wind and zero percent chance of rain, which is warm for Boston in late May. The Green Monster sitting just 310 feet away in left field makes any warm night at Fenway a potential factor for elevated offense, and Atlanta's lineup is talented enough to capitalize if either starter has one bad inning. That said, the 8 run total gives solid cushion for what should be a pitcher-dominated game. Two elite arms in a game with a line that low at favorable juice is hard to pass up. Lock it in.

⚾ ATL @ BOS — Under 8 (-112)

Fenway Park | May 26, 2026

This is a premium pitching matchup from top to bottom. Ranger Suarez has been one of the best starters in the American League this season, carrying a 2.40 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and a 43 to 11 strikeout to walk ratio across 48.2 innings. He has tossed six or more scoreless innings in three of his last four starts and generates weak contact at an elite level, holding opponents to a .253 wOBA and a 34.4% hard hit rate. The Braves lineup is dangerous, but Suarez's ability to get weak grounders and punch out hitters in key spots makes him a nightmare matchup even for Atlanta's best.

On the other side, Spencer Strider looks like his old self again. After starting the year on the IL with an oblique strain and coming back through rehab, Strider has put together four strong starts sitting at 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He just struck out nine Marlins in his most recent outing while generating 15 whiffs, and opponents are hitting a measly .171 against him through four starts. His stuff is back to where it was in his dominant 2023 form, and a Boston lineup that has struggled to generate consistent offense is not going to pose many problems for him tonight.

The one real concern is the venue and the weather. Fenway Park is playing at around 80°F tonight with a 9.2 mph wind and zero percent chance of rain, which is warm for Boston in late May. The Green Monster sitting just 310 feet away in left field makes any warm night at Fenway a potential factor for elevated offense, and Atlanta's lineup is talented enough to capitalize if either starter has one bad inning. That said, the 8 run total gives solid cushion for what should be a pitcher-dominated game. Two elite arms in a game with a line that low at favorable juice is hard to pass up. Lock it in.

⚾ PHI @ SD — Under 7.5 (-116)

Petco Park | May 25, 2026

Randy Vasquez has been one of the best stories in baseball this season and gets the ball for San Diego tonight carrying a 5-2 record and 2.96 ERA. His breakout has been built on real stuff improvements, with his four-seamer sitting 94-95 mph, up over a full tick from last year, and a revamped changeup he is now throwing nearly twice as often. The result has been a strikeout rate that jumped from 13.7% in 2025 to over 26% this season, and he has posted four quality starts in his last five outings with a 2.3 walks per nine rate that is the best of his career. The Phillies lineup is dangerous on paper, but Vasquez has been nearly unhittable at home and Petco Park is going to make their already difficult task even harder.

On the other side, Jesus Luzardo has had a rocky season overall at 3-4 with a 4.85 ERA, but his peripherals tell a completely different story. His 57-plus strikeouts against just 12 walks is an elite ratio, and his last quality start against the Marlins saw him punch out 10 batters in 6.1 innings. The early season blowups were real and cannot be ignored, particularly his struggles with runners on base, but the talent is clearly still there and the recent trend is pointing upward. Petco Park will do him no favors either, giving him a significant home-run-suppressing environment to work in compared to Citizens Bank Park back home.

The venue is the anchor of this play. Petco Park consistently ranks as one of the two or three most pitcher-friendly ballparks in all of baseball, with the marine layer and deep dimensions keeping the ball in the yard and runs off the board. With Vasquez dealing and Luzardo trending in the right direction, this is a strong setup for the under. Lock it in.

⚾ NYM vs MIA - Under 7.5 (-104)

First things first, its my birthday! The universe tends to look out on days like these, so let's cash this one together.

Freddy Peralta takes the ball for New York sitting at a 3.31 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with 54 strikeouts across 54.1 innings. His stuff is legitimate — a 37.4% swinging strike rate keeps lineups off balance — but his command has been the one blemish this season, walking batters at a 10.7% clip. The good news is that Miami's lineup is one of the worst in baseball at making contact on hard stuff, batting just .202 on pitches 95 mph and above. Peralta throws hard and misses bats. That matchup is clean.

On the other side, Max Meyer has been quietly excellent for Miami, coming in at 4-0 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with 60 strikeouts. His 26.7% strikeout rate outpaces Peralta's, his walk rate is under control at 8.4%, and he's allowing just 0.7 home runs per nine innings. With the Mets batting only .224 in day games and slugging .364 in that split, Meyer's power-suppression profile is tailor-made for this matchup. New York's offense ranks dead last in MLB with an OPS of .657 against right-handers. That's a problem against a pitcher throwing this well.

The venue is the final lock. LoanDepot Park is a dome with the roof closed roughly 85% of the time no wind, no weather, no heat element. The park's spacious dimensions consistently suppress home runs and runs overall, and last night's opener between these two teams finished 2-1. Three total runs. The under is alive and well in this building.

The one thing to watch is Peralta's free passes. Walks can snowball quickly in tight games. But with Meyer going against a powerless Mets lineup and neither bullpen being explosive, this stays under. Lock it in.

⚾ MIN vs BOS - Under 7.5 (-117)

Two of the most exciting young arms in baseball square off tonight, and both are dealing. Connor Prielipp takes the ball for Minnesota carrying a 2.88 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and a .169 opponents' average through his first six MLB starts. The left-hander has an elite slider that grades out as one of the best individual pitches in the game right now, and his command has been surprisingly clean given his lengthy injury history. He just logged his first six-inning start last Saturday against Milwaukee, showing the Twins are becoming more comfortable letting him work deeper into games. On the other side, Payton Tolle has been one of the better stories in baseball this season, posting a 2.78 ERA and 0.88 WHIP through his starts as a 23-year-old rookie. Boston's own beat writers are calling him untouchable already, and the stuff backs it up — 11.7 K/9, electric fastball-slider combo, and he's been getting swings and misses at a rate above anyone else in that rotation.

The offensive picture tilts heavily toward the under as well. The Red Sox are one of the worst offenses in the American League right now, slugging just .329 at home (second lowest in MLB) with an OPS of .680 overall. They're even worse against left-handed pitching, making Prielipp a nightmare matchup tonight. The Twins haven't been much better, sitting at 23-27 on the year and not exactly putting up crooked numbers on a nightly basis.

The weather is the final piece that locks this in. Fenway tonight is sitting around 51-62°F with rain expected to move in around first pitch, bringing temperatures down further. Cool and wet conditions suppress offense at any park, and even the Green Monster becomes less of a factor when balls aren't carrying. The main risk is that both starters are rookies on pitch count management, meaning the bullpen could see significant innings. If you trust the 7.5 line, this setup is hard to fade. Lock it in.

⚾ MIN vs BOS - Under 7.5 (-117)

Two of the most exciting young arms in baseball square off tonight, and both are dealing. Connor Prielipp takes the ball for Minnesota carrying a 2.88 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and a .169 opponents' average through his first six MLB starts. The left-hander has an elite slider that grades out as one of the best individual pitches in the game right now, and his command has been surprisingly clean given his lengthy injury history. He just logged his first six-inning start last Saturday against Milwaukee, showing the Twins are becoming more comfortable letting him work deeper into games. On the other side, Payton Tolle has been one of the better stories in baseball this season, posting a 2.78 ERA and 0.88 WHIP through his starts as a 23-year-old rookie. Boston's own beat writers are calling him untouchable already, and the stuff backs it up — 11.7 K/9, electric fastball-slider combo, and he's been getting swings and misses at a rate above anyone else in that rotation.

The offensive picture tilts heavily toward the under as well. The Red Sox are one of the worst offenses in the American League right now, slugging just .329 at home (second lowest in MLB) with an OPS of .680 overall. They're even worse against left-handed pitching, making Prielipp a nightmare matchup tonight. The Twins haven't been much better, sitting at 23-27 on the year and not exactly putting up crooked numbers on a nightly basis.

The weather is the final piece that locks this in. Fenway tonight is sitting around 51-62°F with rain expected to move in around first pitch, bringing temperatures down further. Cool and wet conditions suppress offense at any park, and even the Green Monster becomes less of a factor when balls aren't carrying. The main risk is that both starters are rookies on pitch count management, meaning the bullpen could see significant innings. If you trust the 7.5 line, this setup is hard to fade. Lock it in.

⚾ LAD @ SD - Under 7.5 (-126)

This is about as clean an under as you'll find on tonight's board. Shohei Ohtani takes the mound for the Dodgers carrying a 0.82 ERA and 0.72 WHIP through his starts this season. He's been virtually untouchable, mixing a mid-to-upper 90s four-seamer with a sweeper, curveball, and splitter to keep hitters completely off balance. Opponents are hitting just .133 against him, and the Padres lineup is not going to suddenly crack that code in a night game at home.

On the other side, Randy Vásquez has been a quiet standout for San Diego this year, sitting at a 2.68 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 45 strikeouts in eight starts. His four-seamer velocity is up, his changeup has been a weapon, and he's been one of the steadier arms in a Padres rotation that has dealt with injuries all season. The one note of caution is that he's allowed four or more runs in two of his last three outings, so there's some volatility in his recent form.

The venue and conditions do a lot of the heavy lifting here. Petco Park is consistently one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball, with the marine layer and deep dimensions suppressing fly balls and home runs. Tonight's forecast backs it up too, around 66°F, light winds at 8 to 9 mph, and zero percent chance of rain. No weather wildcards working against this one.

The series sets it up nicely as well. Game 1 on Monday finished 1-0 with King and Yamamoto, and last night's 9-run game came with Sheehan struggling out of the gate. Step back up to elite pitching tonight in an ideal pitching environment and the under makes all the sense in the world. Lock it in.

Tonight's under hinges on one of the best pitching performances in baseball right now.

Jacob Misiorowski takes the mound for Milwaukee carrying a 2.12 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and a league leading 80 strikeouts in just 51 innings. His last two outings were filthy, 6 IP/0 ER/11 K, against the Yankees followed by 7 IP/0 ER/10 K against San Diego, sitting 100+ mph with the best whiff rate in baseball at 39.2%. The Cubs have already seen this guy in last year's NLDS and got dominated.

On the other side, Ben Brown has been quietly excellent for Chicago, posting a 1.60 ERA with improved command after adding a sinker and changeup this offseason. This is a legitimate two way pitching matchup.

Offensively, the Cubs managed just 3 runs last night against Milwaukee's Sproat and went 0 for 9 with RISP, so the bats aren't exactly scorching right now.

The one concern is the weather. Wind is blowing out to right center at around 10 mph with temps at 78°F, and Wrigley with wind blowing out is one of the scariest environments for an under bet. One source is projecting 1.5x the average home run rate tonight. Rain is also likely with an 80%+ chance at first pitch, which could disrupt pitching rhythm.