This model I made is 16-1 on the last 17 and 12 straight wins. Am I on to something or am I just getting lucky? It likes the titans +7.5 and the dolphins +7 for Sunday
EDIT: the only picks right now this model has for Sunday are titans and dolphins. 49ers +3.0 is very close to qualifying. I made the model on modelmix.io if you want to make one. If you have any questions about how it works feel free to dm me
I have an out that allows correlated parlays in every sport. Allowing me to bet 1st half spread and total in the same game with no correlation. They also allow the same live and take the line down with 4:30 left in the 1h. For example
Pre game
+260 (real odds range from +140 to +210) depending on how close they are. The example below would be -120 on FanDuel/fanatics while I’m getting +260
Alabama 1h over 35
Alabama 1h -34.5
Live wagers taking the team with the ball to cover the live spread + over. Getting around +280 to +400 on these while real odds are +130ish.
I don’t have enough capital to make this “worth” it. Would anyone like to invest or pay me to tell you which book. Open to all types of offers. Thanks
Late post to Reddit, but let’s ride with the seminoles! Good luck if you take the same side 🍀👍
A dime hit.
You could go higher yards with Robinson or higher passing with Joe since Miami sucks, but I wanted to play it safe.
Fanduel has the best odds right now with this atm. Tail before Vegas sees this and calls their agents 😭
We know that City won all five of their opening PL games but Lvpool meanwhile are unbeaten in the league with three draws, last head to head City won 2-1 at Anfield.
Can Iraolas side press aggressively and crack City whos under pressure with all that charges talk in the media.
I’m not shy, let’s get fucking money brethren.
NHL PUBLIC TRACKER
Individual Picks: 34-14 (70.8%)
Main/Core Picks: 23-9 (71.9%)
Audited through the previous slate.
Two 2nd half drops that woulda got it done
Hit this parlay last night due to prop protect on 365 lol help me flip these bonus bets
Stoked on this one, my biggest yet.
Another stupid mistake that cost me an extra $500. I'm more mad at myself than anything. Dunno wtf I was thinking.
+3213 odds. What do you guys think? Id say lower the Roman Wilson yards to play it safer.
There are many different devigging methods, but in this thread, I'll be covering the three that I use the most...
•𝗔𝗱𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲
•𝗣𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿
•𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲
𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗼𝗱:
The vig is distributed evenly across all outcomes, meaning that outcomes with higher implied probabilities (lower odds) incur more vig.
This approach is widely adopted because of its mathematical straightforwardness and is seen as the conventional way to remove the vig.
However, this method can be problematic since it doesn't consider the common behavior of bettors, including sharps, who tend to overbet on long-shots and underbet on favorites.
𝗔𝗱𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗼𝗱:
The vig is evenly allocated across all outcomes.
Although this accounts for the tendency to overbet on long-shots, it can occasionally amplify this bias, leading to negative probabilities for underdogs.
𝗣𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗼𝗱:
This method is an extension of both the additive and multiplicative methods and involves raising the probabilities to a constant power.
Beneficial because it always maintains probabilities within the 0 to 1 range, avoiding feasibility issues present in other devigging methods.
However, it can overcompensate for betting biases, adjusting long-shot probabilities more than Shin, while adjusting middle-range outcomes less than Shin.
𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗧𝗼 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗘𝗩:
The formula for calculating Expected Value is straightforward: multiply the probability of winning by the potential winnings per bet and subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost per bet:
(Probability of Winning) x (Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Losing) x (Amount Lost per Bet)
To compute the expected value for sports betting, you can use the following steps:
𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗗𝗼 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗱 +𝗘𝗩 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝘀?
I use the OddsJam +EV tool. This tool tracks all sportsbooks (global and local) and finds these opportunities for you as seen below ⬇️
Here is my Pikkit where I track all of my +EV betting results.
Remember, there will be highs and lows with +EV betting. This isn't a get rich quick style of betting, there will be peaks and valleys along the way but ultimately, this is the best way to become a profitable sports bettor!
Browns better not brown, I’m in no mood. Let’s fucking cash this ticket BOL 👍
