u/dubLyou

Rough two days, all graded in my last posts. Hoping to get back on track today.
Three bets plus a parlay today.

1. Eduardo Rodriguez under 5.5 Ks (-130 DK). We project 4.3 and make this ~73 percent. He has stayed under this number in 9 of his last 10, and the arsenal is why, 6.4 Ks per 9 on the season means even a deep start projects around 4. Fair warning: Cincinnati whiffs more than any lineup in baseball the last 30 days, that is the one real path to 6.
2. Freddy Peralta under 5.5 Ks (-142 FD). We project 4.8 and make this ~71 percent. Under in 7 of his last 10 because Tampa just does not let him work deep, he is averaging about four and a half innings a start. The risk: Baltimore whiffs 6th-most in the league and he did stretch to 6 innings once this month, so a sharp night gets there.
3. Daylen Lile under 1.5 hits (-259 DK). We project 1.0 and make this ~74 percent. Under in all 5 of his last 5 and 7 of his last 10. Heavier than we like on the price, the number is just good.

Parlay of the day (-113): Henry Davis under 0.5 runs + Ildemaro Vargas under 1.5 hits. Davis is a bottom-of-the-order catcher staring at Yamamoto tonight and has scored in 1 of his last 10. Vargas has been under his number in 10 straight. Pays a bit less than even, two heavy unders on one ticket.

Graded tomorrow like always. Stay thirsty my fellow degenerates.

3 for 3 yesterday (+3.25u), 10 for the last 10. Lets keep cookin 🔥

1. Roki Sasaki under 5.5 Ks (-157 DK). My model projects 4.9 Ks, 70% to stay under. He's been hovering right around 5 (2, 5, 7, 9, 5 his last five) and he's a middle of the pack strikeout arm (22.9% K rate, 59th percentile among starters). Colorado whiffs at a league average clip (21.7%), so this one's about his recent form. He did post a 9 K game in July. Still the best number on the board.
2. Ben Rice under 1.5 hits (-257 DK). My model projects 1.1 hits, 70% under. Ice cold, 5 for his last 39 (.128) and nothing multi-hit since the 12th. Fair warning, Bassitt is the most contact heavy arm in baseball (14% K rate, bottom 3% of starters) so there will be balls in play. Rice is really on the struggle bus since the ASB.
3. Yandy Diaz under 1.5 hits (-240 DK). My model projects 1.2 hits, 70% under. He's 8 for his last 43 (.186) and needs two knocks to beat this. Scherzer's back from the IL (?? not confirmed as of this post) and our model only has him going 4.5 innings, so Diaz probably sees him twice. Dome game at the Trop.
4. Chris Bassitt under 4.5 Ks (-116 DK). Model projects 3.6 Ks, 66% under. Aware of the overlap between this and #2. He doesn't miss bats (bottom 3% of starters in K rate, 3 Ks in his first start back) and Rice isn't hitting anything hard, so I'm fine betting both. Only thing that scares me is the Yankees (in general) swing and miss a ton (27.2%, 2nd in MLB), which is why it's basically even money. Least confident of the four but I like it.

Parlay of the day (+128): Sasaki under + Rice under. Plus money on two of the more confident plays.

Graded tomorrow like always. Stay thirsty my fellow degenerates.

1. Wheeler u7.5 Ks: WIN ✅. Exactly 7. Another stressful sweat.. pitch count had him pulled from an otherwise excellent outing 😅.
2. Wilson u1.5 hits: VOID. Scratched pregame with that nagging shoulder.
3. Lee u1.5 hits: VOID. Given the day off. Money back.
4. Betts u1.5 hits: WIN ✅. 0 for 4 at Coors. The slump is real.

Parlay of the day (+148): WIN ✅. Walker 2 HRR, Contreras singled in a 22-0 blow out.

Sorry about the two voided but otherwise, 3 nights without a miss!

Day: +3.25u. Running: 19-3, +11.80u.

Today's card coming shortly. Graded daily, win or lose.

Went 4 for 4 yesterday (+3.39u), graded in my last post. Three bets today.

1. Eduardo Rodriguez under 3.5 earned runs (-158 DK). I project 2.6, he needs a 4-spot to lose. Yes it's Atlanta and yes they're rolling, 18-9 last month... but he just blanked the Pirates for eight and held the Dodgers to two over seven. 2.71 ERA all year.
2. Hayden Wesneski over 15.5 outs (-118 FD). I project 20 and my 25th percentile night is 17. He gets a Mariners lineup running the 2nd-worst offense in baseball over the last month, 3.2 runs a game. Cleared the number every start since coming back. The risk is the leash, three starts off Tommy John.
3. Brad Lord over 2.5 Ks (-178 DK). I project 5.3 with a floor of 2.7. The Mets strike out more than almost anyone, 4th in MLB the last 30 days. Lord's been piling up Ks in short stints and even a capped outing gets him 15 hitters. The risk is the leash here too, first start back from the pen. I think if we can get at least 3 innings out of him, this will hit.

No parlay today, unfortunately nothing qualified. Not forcing it.

Graded tomorrow like always. Stay thirsty my fellow degenerates.

Yesterday's card, graded (posted pre-lock, check my history):

Robert Stock under 14.5 outs (−106) — WIN. 13 outs.

Shane Bieber under 5.5 Ks (−160) — WIN. Exactly 5. I was sweating this one hard..

Nicky Lopez under 1.5 H+R+RBI (−173) — WIN (if you were able to sneak in before the books took it down). Came off the bench against the lefty but had one late at-bat, 0 HRR total.

Parlay (+124): Meckler over 0.5 hits + the Lopez under — WIN. Meckler with the bunt single! A hits a hit.

Day: +3.39 units. Running: 7-1, +4.24u.

Today's card later this morning.

Posted these yesterday pre-lock (check my history). Grading as promised:

Willson Contreras over 0.5 hits (−195) — WIN (1-for-4)

Wade Meckler over 0.5 H+R+RBI (−199) — WIN

Keider Montero over 2.5 Ks (−169) — LOSS. Zero strikeouts... that game turned out to be MLB's first no-strikeout shutout since 2014. It happens.

Parlay (Raleigh + Bailey RBI unders, −120) — WIN

Day 1: 3-1, +0.85 units. Today's card coming later this morning.