u/MumtazKahn

Yesterday I posted nominal total returns. Some of you said about adjusting for inflation and the rupee/USD. so I redid it.

Same setup: Rs 1M in 5 years ago (June 2021), dividends reinvested, 15% tax, splits adjusted. Now also deflated by CPI (PBS) and converted to USD (SBP). Top 10 by free float cap.

For context: over these 5 years CPI ×2.03 and the rupee went 158 → 279.

Nominal → real / USD:

• UBL +1161% → +520% / +616%
• FFC +714% → +300% / +362%
• MEBL +669% → +279% / +337%
• HUBC +423% → +158% / +197%
• OGDC +365% → +129% / +164%
• MCB +332% → +112% / +145%
• ENGROH +241% → +68% / +94%
• PPL +228% → +61% / +86%
• HBL +224% → +59% / +84%
• LUCK +183% → +39% / +61%

Every one still beat inflation, but the headlines shrink hard — LUCK basically just kept pace. All from one entry date (June 2021), so timing also matters a lot.

Most-traded: CEMENT (12.5%), O&G EXPL (12.2%), BANKS (11.7%)
Gaining focus: O&G EXPL +2.7%, O&G MKT +1.8%, CHEMICAL +1.2%

Share of weekly turnover, vs prior week.

Most "5-year return" numbers you see for PSX stocks are quietly wrong.
They either ignore dividends, or count dividends but forget that you're taxed on every one of them, or they break the moment a stock splits. So the figure looks bigger than anything a real investor actually ended up with.
So I rebuilt it the honest way.
I took the 10 largest companies on the exchange by free-float market cap and asked one simple question: if you had put Rs 1,000,000 into each of them five years ago, and just held, reinvesting every dividend ; what would you actually have today?
Every number here is after 15% dividend withholding tax, and every stock split along the way is properly accounted for. Real entry prices, real dividends, the real shares you'd be holding now.
Here are the results for the top 10 by free-float cap.
Each card below breaks down exactly where the money came from

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