I don't think that AI can replace SWEs
theres two different ways people use ai day to day either vibe coding, where you tell the ai what to build and never look at the actual code (in the case of a personal project or just training the AI and testing out), or regular engineering where the ai generates code but you still review and understand every part of it.
The thing is when an app gets complex enough. production apps depend on a lot of interconnected services, sometimes you have to fake account states or force certain code paths just to test something, and once multiple people are touching the same codebase at once in a team setting, its becomes hard to tell whats changed without actually reading the code, so past a certain complexity threshold, working at the code level directly ends up faster than clicking through the app trying to verify ai's work indirectly.
theres also pushback on the framing that code is an obstacle standing between you and the feature you want, the argument being that code is actually the value bc its precise, it tells you exactly whats happening instead of an ai generated summary that might not fully match reality, and its more concise than an ai over explaining some part of it.
Many people may have heard Nvidia's founder "ai wont replace you but someone using ai will" line that gets repeated everywhere, the take here is that this just hasnt played out, bc the software engineers who already have core engineering skills are the same ones learning to integrate ai into their workflow, so someone who only learns ai and skips learning to code ends up competing against people who have both skills, not just one.
Actually, ai researchers hype things up heavily on social media (I've already said this in somebody's post but founders of AI hype it so much for marketing, that's it), but the actual released models feel like incremental improvement day to day, not the dramatic leap the hype implies, with an honest disclaimer about not being qualified to predict how much better it'll get.
Personally, I don't agree with the idea that more efficient engineers just means needing fewer of them. People forget that tech companies are financially rewarded for growth, not for maintaining the same output with fewer people, so the incentive structure tends to push toward "same headcount, more projects" rather than "same projects, fewer people." and on the jobs narrative, theres a point about how layoffs get covered extensively in the news but rehiring doesnt get the same coverage, noting meta and google have both been rehiring for years after their layoffs and google's headcount is reportedly close to an all time high, which paints a less one-sided picture than what usually gets discussed.
To put it simply, learn ai and learn to code and learn to code before using AI or you'll pay for your lack of skill in other (perhaps more expensive) ways👍