General Thoughts So Far on Each Nominee and What's Likely To Win/Get Nominated
I think it's close enough to the TGA's for me to finally give my thoughts on what is most likely to get nominated or to outright win.
First, though, let's start with the elephant in the room: GTA6
If GTA6 gets nominated it will just win. Period. Full-stop. There's just nothing that has come out or will come out that stands any pertinent chance at beating it. The closest thing is OOT's remake but... that's a remake, inherently that is working against it compared to GTA6 being a brand new title. GTA6 almost certainly will be the highest rated game this year as well (97+ metacritic) which further backs this up. If you have a compelling argument for anything that could beat it i'd love to hear it.
The only thing that is up for debate is whether it will get nominated due to it releasing so close to the cutoff date. Odds are it will because it seems the cutoff date will be the 20th this year, and, also, it's unlikely geoff would want to have GTA not have a presence at the awards due to how much viewership and therefore money it being there would bring. The chance it doesn't get nominated, though, is higher than it getting nominated and it somehow not winning.
Taking that into account, the rest of the nominees are just glorified filler nominations for GOTY. That's not to necessarily say the games aren't great or even don't deserve to be nominated, but assuming GTA6 will be there everything else is just there for show at that point. I think the most likely nominees are as follows:
RE9
OOT Remake
Fire Emblem
Mina
Saros
I think this year has had very, very good indie games to where im confident they will nominate at least one just to show love to games that aren't just AAA. Mina is the most likely choice I think because it's a single-player title with a 90 MC and has had enough reviews to have a jury pick it over others. Big Walk is obviously the higher scoring game but that has less review overall for it from critics and it's also in the "friendslop" camp (whether or not you think that term is derogatory or apt is besides the point) in that it's a multiplayer game highly dependent on friends for enjoyment. I don't see it beating Mina out as a result.
OOT remake seems like a shoe in just because of Nintendo's prestige and also because OOT is so highly regarded. The only way it doesn't get nominated is if the remake itself is basically just 1:1 and doesn't do much at all better apart from visuals.
Fire Emblem is a very strongly rated RPG also from Nintendo that I think is very likely to get a nom. Not quite as guaranteed as OOT but i'd be surprised if it doesn't get it as well.
RE9 has had very strong reviews and has had some of the best user scores of any game period this year. I'd be shocked if this doesn't get it as a result. I can't think of a reason why it wouldn't get a nomination.
Saros is probably a more controversial pick and is a pick im choosing to take a bit of a gamble on contrary to other predictions. I'm choosing Saros over, say, 007, because Saros has reviewed more consistently and also has had less negative feedback about it not feeling complete. Saros's metacritic is a 87 whereas 007 is an 87 on the PS5 version BUT an 84 on the PC version which is the second most reviewed version. It's also a Sony game which may help it edge other games that have a similar score in the same way it would help Nintendo.
The one game that could be a dark horse entry though is Phantom Blade. I'm not really sure how it will end up reviewing but if it lands in the high 80's on metacritic it could very well beat out Saros in my list. But, again, it's a real dark horse candidate and it could end up being anywhere from kinda meh and a flat 8/10 type game like wukong was to a very, very competent near 90 metacritic standout game. We'll see later this month.