Iran Hormuz Strait oil tollboth/insurance plan: Game Theory
I'm following the Iran Strait of Hormuz situation, it seems this is a global oil chokepoint, and the continued problems getting Middle East oil out of there is a major problem for the global economy. Obviously Iran's economy is in trouble if they can't export oil. But the blockage also causes oil price to rise, which benefits them. Iran has been sanctioned from global oil and financial markets by the US for years anyway, so all of their oil sales and purchases continue to be done via black markets. Much of the Iranian oil is sold using India and China as intermediaries. For these reasons, crypto is a good choice for accepting and making payments for Iran, since it can't be stopped and censored like SWIFT and wire transactions.
Watching the Iran government lose billions worth of USDT to seizure shows that they either didn't understand how things work, or they got tricked into using Tether. Obviously now they're done with Tether. If/when they start accepting BTC, that will be tracked and eventually blacklisted by the US government as well. Therefore I believe it's logical that they could start accepting XMR for payments. At that point, the US can really only try to limit their fiat offramps for XMR, which is an inexact process. So they'd only lose a portion of their payments, but probably not all of them.
However, at some point the process of converting XMR to fiat might become too cumbersome or difficult. At that point, the Iran government would simply keep the XMR and use it as payment for something else they're forbidden from. If we arrive at this juncture, XMR becomes a global petrocurrency. Discuss