I wanted to run a simplified math check on the Spatha vs Outlaw matchup, because I have seen a lot of people saying that Spatha was already strong and that the upcoming changes will overbuff it even more.

After looking at the numbers, I am starting to think the opposite: this does not really look like a Spatha overbuff. It looks more like an attempt to equalize the matchup between both sides.

This is not a full real-battlefield simulation. It does not include repairs, infantry, tracking, terrain, multiple tanks focusing one target, crew mistakes, smoke, mines, or anything like that.

This is only a controlled 1v1 mathematical duel.

Basic assumptions

Both tanks shoot only at the turret.

A tank loses if:

• its turret gets disabled
• it reaches 30% HP or lower
• it reaches 0 HP
• if both lose on the exact same timestamp, it is counted as a draw

Both tanks start loaded.

Penetration chance starts at 33% for both vehicles.

Turret disable chance after penetration is 20% for both vehicles.

No side/rear/range penetration bonuses are applied.

Tank armour loss is counted as equal to penetrating damage.

Tank stats used

Spatha

• HP: 3650
• Disabled at 30% HP: 1095 HP
• Tank Armour: 13550
• Base penetration chance range: 33–67%
• Current damage used in the first comparison: 561
• Proposed/future patch damage used in the second comparison: 510
• Reload / fire cycle: 4.5 seconds
• Pen modifier: 1.0
• Turret disable chance after pen: 20%

Outlaw

• HP: 2950
• Disabled at 30% HP: 885 HP
• Tank Armour: 11000
• Base penetration chance range: 33–67%
• Damage used: 612
• Reload / fire cycle: 7 seconds
• Pen modifier: 1.0
• Turret disable chance after pen: 20%

Outlaw also has important non-math-duel utility that should not be ignored:

• 45 m range
• boost
• hull-mounted 7.92mm MG
• ability to play around poke trades and disengage timing

That matters, because Outlaw should not be judged only as a raw DPS box.

Scenario 1: constant firing on reload

This is the simplest scenario:

Both tanks stand in front of each other and keep firing as soon as they reload.

This is the most favorable kind of scenario for Spatha, because Spatha has the faster reload.

With Spatha damage at 561

Result:

• Spatha wins: 67.91%
• Outlaw wins: 31.48%
• Draw: 0.61%

This is a clear Spatha advantage, mostly because of reload speed.

With Spatha damage reduced to 510

Result:

• Spatha wins: 63.89%
• Outlaw wins: 35.45%
• Draw: 0.66%

So even in the most favorable “constant pressure” scenario for Spatha, the lower damage reduces its advantage.

Spatha still wins more often here, but it does not become significantly stronger. It actually becomes slightly weaker in this specific raw DPS scenario.

Scenario 2: poke trade, current range situation

This is closer to how Outlaw wants to play:

Both tanks trade shots, pull back, reload, then commit again.

Since Outlaw currently has the range advantage, I counted Outlaw as shooting first in each poke trade.

That means if Outlaw disables the turret or disables/kills Spatha with its shot, Spatha does not get to fire back in that trade.

This removes draws and represents the value of Outlaw’s extra range.

Current-style poke trade, Outlaw fires first

Using Spatha damage at 561:

• Spatha wins: 52.31%
• Outlaw wins: 47.69%
• Draw: 0%

This is already very close to even.

That is important, because this is the scenario where Outlaw is supposed to perform well: range advantage, first shot, poke, disengage, reload, repeat.

So if Outlaw is already almost equal in its own preferred style, that does not look like Spatha being wildly overpowered.

Scenario 3: future patch-style poke trade

Now assume the patch numbers are correct:

• Spatha damage goes down to 510
• Spatha gets 45 m range
• both tanks now have equal range

If range is equal, then Outlaw no longer gets the guaranteed first shot in the poke trade.

So the fair model becomes:

Both tanks roll in, both are in range, both fire at the same time.

Future-style poke trade, both fire simultaneously

Using Spatha damage at 510:

• Spatha wins: 47.66%
• Outlaw wins: 47.66%
• Draw: 4.68%

That is basically perfect mathematical equality.

The draws mostly come from simultaneous turret disables or both tanks meeting a losing condition on the same timestamp.

Why this matters

A lot of people seem to look at this change as:

“Spatha gets 45 m range, therefore Spatha is overbuffed.”

But that ignores the other side of the change:

Spatha gets equal range, but loses damage.

And when I simulate the poke-trade scenario with those numbers, the result is not a Spatha stomp. It is literally:

• Spatha: 47.66%
• Outlaw: 47.66%
• Draw: 4.68%

That looks much more like equalization than overbuffing.

My personal takeaway

I am starting to think that a lot of balance discussion around this matchup comes from people looking at only one stat at a time.

If you only look at Spatha reload, Spatha looks scary.

If you only look at Spatha getting 45 m range, Spatha looks scary.

But if you model actual scenarios, the picture changes.

In a constant DPS duel, Spatha still wins because it reloads faster.

In a poke-trade scenario, Outlaw’s range advantage currently brings the matchup close to even.

After the proposed change, Spatha loses damage but gains equal range, and the poke-trade scenario becomes almost perfectly equal.

That does not look like “Colonials got an overbuff” to me.

It looks like the devs are trying to make the matchup fair in the scenario where both tanks are used correctly.

Interesting detail

With Spatha damage reduced to 510, both tanks need the same number of penetrations to disable the other by HP in the simultaneous poke-trade model.

That is why the result becomes so symmetrical.

Both have:

• 33% starting penetration chance
• 20% turret disable chance after penetration
• same range in the future scenario
• same number of shots per trade
• same number of required penetrations to force HP disable

So the outcome becomes almost exactly equal.

Final conclusion

My current read is:

Current Outlaw has a favorable toolset for poke gameplay: range, first shot potential, boost, and MG utility.

Current Spatha is stronger in sustained pressure and reload-based fights.

The future patch seems to reduce Spatha’s raw damage advantage while giving it the ability to participate fairly in 45 m poke trades.

So instead of seeing this as a Spatha overbuff, I think it is more accurate to say:

The patch turns a previously range-favored Outlaw poke scenario into a mathematically even trade scenario, while still leaving Outlaw with boost and MG utility.

That sounds like balance equalization, not a faction being handed an unfair toy.

I ran a simplified mathematical simulation of a stationary frontal Widow vs Talos duel.

Important: this is not a real battlefield comparison. No movement, no repairs, no flanking, no tracking, no misses, no range/angle bonuses. Both tanks stand still, face each other frontally, and shoot only at the turret.

Win conditions:
- turret disabled = loss
- HP drops to 30% or lower = loss
- HP reaches 0 = loss
- both lose on the same timestamp = draw

Tested two versions:

1. Widow base pen chance: 17%
2. Widow base pen chance: 22%

Talos:
- 4000 HP
- disabled at 1200 HP
- 13550 armour
- 75mm damage vs Heavy Armor: 1487.5
- fires every 6 seconds
- turret disable chance after pen: 25%
- pen modifier: 1.5x

Widow:
- 2200 HP
- disabled at 660 HP
- 17650 armour
- 68mm damage with +75% bonus: 1050
- fires every 6.5 seconds
- turret disable chance after pen: 20%
- pen modifier: 1.5x

Result with Widow at 17% base pen:
- Talos wins: 38.87%
- Widow wins: 60.48%
- Draw: 0.64%

Result with Widow at 22% base pen:
- Talos wins: 49.13%
- Widow wins: 50.05%
- Draw: 0.82%

Main takeaway:
At 17% base pen, Widow wins the duel quite clearly.
At 22% base pen, the matchup becomes almost exactly 50/50.

The reason is that Talos only needs 2 penetrations to kill or disable Widow, but Widow has a much higher chance to penetrate and disable Talos’ turret per shot.

At 17%:
- Talos pen chance vs Widow: 25.5%
- Widow pen chance vs Talos: 49.5%

At 22%:
- Talos pen chance vs Widow: 33%
- Widow pen chance vs Talos: 49.5%

Turret disable chance per shot at 22%:
- Talos disabling Widow turret: 6.6%
- Widow disabling Talos turret: 12.375%

So even when Talos gets much better effective DPS at 22%, Widow still barely stays ahead because turret disable chance is much higher.