Where things go from here? In my view
Haven't posted much here for a while. I thought it would be a good idea to reflect on how far we have come along, and where things are potentially going from here.
For me personally it has been a 3 year journey (a 13 year journey if you count the RSUs I held from $BB even after I left).
We had seen some real tough times in the past 3 years, especially in early 2024 when the turnaround outcome was definitely under question from a profitability and longevity perspective.
Times have changed, company has turned around, the distribution network and the breadth of the moat has become more visible. More importantly the stock has been re-rated.
I would say, we are fairly valued for where the company is financially at the current point of time.
In the same breath, I would say we are still undervalued for the potential.
Many are still not aware of the breadth and depth of this comeback story.
We will see more deals from Secure communications, around the world, similar to the Canada deal. We will see QNX expanding into several more verticals, and up the stack as well.
In a healthy compounding, we should see a double every 3 years for all the metrics including the valuation. Free cashflow will grow even faster. Reality is once things start running, valuations can always get ahead of the numbers, as markets are always forward looking. Given the fact that many Robotics and Physical AI etfs/funds are only waking up to this reality, I wouldn't be surprised if we test the meme rally high of 28$ again, this year itself. Catalyst will be the two Alloy Kore wins from Europe and may be one from Detroit.
I think things have reached a point where BB doesn't need babysitting anymore as an investment and the business will compound, along with shareholder value.