Am I going to be super happy if BB could just stay in the range of $12.50-15.00 usd for this year? Of course I am.
It’s such a nice turnaround story. The significant narrative change happened within a year as the market just started to realize what BB/QNX has been accomplished in the last few years.
Although People in the group here plus a few institutions involved in the IoT industries may have known QNX’s strengths and potentials, the majority of the market is still totally fresh to it.
It took a few years and many significant deals to convince some analysts who followed the company long enough to change their minds and raise target price on the up side recently!
The reality is that the concept of QNX being the safest and top performing RTOS for GEM (including SDV) has been proven. The deals will be continually working through their courses in the next couple of years, not all happening in this year.
So I’m happy to see the first Alloy Kore deal this year to lead more future deals in the SDV industry. This kind of rally will continue until reaching the scale by 2029-2030.
On the GEM side I think a similar platform like Alloy Kore could emerge next year. Then a bunch of follow-up deals will happen. As it is expected that completing business deals in GEM field may be a lot faster than in the auto industry. By 2029-2030 QNX’s revenue mix in the SDV and GEM could be at least 50/50. That means while SDVs start running up revenue growth, the GEM revenue may run at a faster pace.
If such a wild imagination only comes half true the future is already very impressive.
Well, I’m comfortable to ride along into 2030, and settle with the current range of $12.50-15.00 target for this year. When price goes below that level I would see it as a buying opportunity.
All IMO.

Automakers are ensuring cars get a tech upgrade. We are talking about software-defined vehicles (SDVs), over-the-air updates, constant connectivity, and AI integration. McKinsey & Company forecasts that the global automotive software and electronics market could reach 519 billion US Dollars by 2035, cruising at a 4.5% CAGR.

But with high-tech cars comes cybersecurity threats. The UN’s regulatory framework, UNECE WP.29, is laying down the law by forcing carmakers to install cybersecurity management systems. Manufacturers will have to lock down security from the factory floor to the driveway by using regular software updates to detect, monitor, and squash cyber threats.

It is the same McKinsey & Company which predicted (April 17, 2023) only Blackberry QNX is well positioned for converging enterprise IT cybersecurity solutions with IoT platform with embedded Cybersecurity in IoT not BOLTED ON

https://www.reddit.com/r/BB_Stock/comments/1mwpfg7/mckinsey_predicted_april_17_2023_only_blackberry/

With Vector being a privately held company at an estimated $7 Billion worth. Is there a possibility of BB acquiring them in about a couple of years.

They have about 1 billion in revenue at the moment and I am not sure if they will grow just as fast as Blackberry with the Alloy Kore solution.

Any thoughts on possible M&A activity if BB goes to $30 in a couple of years?

I am not sure who is the dominant partner out of the two at the moment.

Haven't posted much here for a while. I thought it would be a good idea to reflect on how far we have come along, and where things are potentially going from here.

For me personally it has been a 3 year journey (a 13 year journey if you count the RSUs I held from $BB even after I left).

We had seen some real tough times in the past 3 years, especially in early 2024 when the turnaround outcome was definitely under question from a profitability and longevity perspective.

Times have changed, company has turned around, the distribution network and the breadth of the moat has become more visible. More importantly the stock has been re-rated.

I would say, we are fairly valued for where the company is financially at the current point of time.

In the same breath, I would say we are still undervalued for the potential.

Many are still not aware of the breadth and depth of this comeback story.

We will see more deals from Secure communications, around the world, similar to the Canada deal. We will see QNX expanding into several more verticals, and up the stack as well.

In a healthy compounding, we should see a double every 3 years for all the metrics including the valuation. Free cashflow will grow even faster. Reality is once things start running, valuations can always get ahead of the numbers, as markets are always forward looking. Given the fact that many Robotics and Physical AI etfs/funds are only waking up to this reality, I wouldn't be surprised if we test the meme rally high of 28$ again, this year itself. Catalyst will be the two Alloy Kore wins from Europe and may be one from Detroit.

I think things have reached a point where BB doesn't need babysitting anymore as an investment and the business will compound, along with shareholder value.

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Peter Lynch once said you should be able to write down the top 3 reasons for buying a stock. If you can’t do that, it’s not a buy.

So what are your reasons for buying other than “it’s going up”?

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We’re glad your excited and we welcome you all with open arms. Please remember that a lot of the older members have figured out a lot of things with BB long ago. We’re seeing an influx of DD. Please search through posts before posting and be sure you are not posting something that has already been discussed! It leads to clutter and confusion at time. Thanks and enjoy!

I believe QNX will be announcing a platform, similar to Alloy Kore for GEM before the end of the year.

This was originally mentioned in at the Baird Global conference, where John Wall first introduced the idea. 

John Wall: "This (GEM) is a new market..You know, we see humanoid robotics dancing and choreographed. But the reality of it is it's going to be robots that are automated forklifts, skateboards to help manufacturing warehouses, etc. We've already started understanding there are a lot of things in common with alloy core that they require. 

There may be some tweaks, there may be some changes, but I think we're going to get to a platform like alloy core for medical, for industrial automation, for robotics much sooner than we did for automotive. I think there is more of a willingness in those markets to embrace a platform”

During the Q1 earnings call, we got a potential timeline on when that platform would be announced during the Q&A with Steven Li from Raymond James. Steven asked a question about GEM's potential wins compared to Alloy Kore. The exchange is below: 
 
John Giamatteo: "...we've got some interesting opportunities that are brewing in the Gem space that we're looking forward to sharing with you all later on in the year that we expect is going to continue to move the business forward "   

Steven Li: "Great. And, John, given your comments just now, so timing-wise, should we expect meaningfulGem's contract award this year, or this is a more longer-term opportunity?"

John Giamatteo: "Yeah, if I'm honest, I'd be disappointed if we didn't have a couple of big Gem wins to share with you. We're really pleased with the pipeline on Gem and the pipeline on Alloy Kore. The uptake on SDP-8 has been tremendous, Steven. And the fact that QNX now is really a more diverse platform of capabilities. From cabin to sound to the base operating system to Alloy Kore, the depth and breadth of what we have to offer our customers has never been stronger. So two of those segments we're feeling really, really, really good about."

The bears hunting for stops today started at $12.50 but not enough shares so they pushed it down to $12 still not enough shares so $11.50 still not enough shares...the VWAP was at $11.84 which tells you the truth!
Now we have the short sale rule on NYSE and the share buy back in effect but algos are also hunting for shares while working against each other such that even RBC was on it. And now interested retail that wants in as well as institutions as the dark pool is highest in the past two days.
Not sure if the naked shorts needed to borrow from the lending pool on the close as they were not able to cover their shorts!
So will the bear raid turn into a bear trap next week while the Alloy Kore contract signing hangs in the next 30 days! It is a no brainer that revenue from Alloy Kore will result in multiple expansion!

I’m seeing some posts about how this is seen as a positive for BB. The decision will be announced on Monday (hopefully) so where does that put BB’s price?

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After selling 21k BB shares at CN$18 on both Tuesday and today , My investment account has 380k cash. I will buy back at least 25k BB shares when BB is lower than US$10.5(about CN$15).

I am a BBbeliever!

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