u/newwobblywheeler

T. Rowe Price's article indicates that their purchase of 32M shares of BB was due to their thesis:

"An extremely concentrated market led by risk and momentum has left behind growth at a reasonable price (GARP) stocks despite strong fundamentals.

Many characteristics of the current market environment are consistent with some historical extended growth bull markets.

History has shown GARP stocks to be long‑term winners. We believe there remains a place for them in every portfolio—with manifold scenarios for the cohort to return to favor."

Blackberry became a "Rule of 40" company in over 2.5 years under Chairman of Board Dick Lynch with JG and TF executing a very focussed directional goals much to the company's benefit.

Therefore, the increase in institutional ownership is simply opportunity that they see. Retail needs to understand this as growth is in the books due to the framework and fundamentals that are in place.

The 13F indicates approximately 10% increase in institutional ownership from Q1 to Q2 which translates to ~58M shares in spite of Fairfax liquidating its position. In addition, in FY 2026 18M shares were bought back.

Thus, the presentation at CG on August 12, clearly indicates the confidence with which the C-Suite is executing!

When institutions are buying the price becomes irrelevant when there are limited shares around knowing that at present price such an order could not be filled without everyone knowing. In fact, on Aug 13, 7913 contracts of Jan 2028 $5 calls for $5.13 were bought and exercised such the OI did not budge. The MM has room to fill 791,300 shares and it was under the radar!

PW wrote down the price of BB in Dec 2023 to $3.58. He was humiliated as he could not change the course of BB with John Chen at the helm who had made many expensive mistakes but the bigger problem was that PW was hated by the hedge funds that lost money while shorting Fairfax and PW took them to court. PW also mentioned that he had lost opportunity cost in other technology stocks over the decade and so it is not unexpected. On May 4 he indicated that he had sold ~10M shares and was holding ~26M shares. Those shares seem to have been sold at about $5.87. The next tranche is unknown as he no longer was above the 5% threshold where he would have to declare the price. His exit should not be considered as a negative as I am sure that WS is happy that he is no longer involved but a large chunk of the shares probably went to the shorts as the SI continues ~50M both NYSE+TSX but the synthetic and naked shorts have closed out their positions.

It seems that ~100M naked shorts and synthetic closed out and the question is how many still have open positions? The volume has dried up so the next leg should be very interesting. Jim Cramer and team were part of that cohort that shorted incessantly with Steven Cohen but now are aware that BB is here to stay. The MM must have been aware of PW desire to exit.

Thank you to PW for having faith in BB but his ego has been bruised so it was time for him to move on in Fab 2024 when Muddy Waters threatened Fairfax by putting nefarious statements about Fairfax. Since that time Fairfax has flourished and the stock is well above the $1450 when the treat was made.

BB is in the best financial situation in the past 12.5 years and now a Rule of 40 company whether PW is part of BB or not is immaterial at this time. If PW can deploy his funds in another area, good luck to him but he truly saved BB as an iconic Cdn company with all its bumps along the way to what it is today.

I was asked do shorts use options to cover?

Yes, not only shorts but those that missed out on shares and want in!

The holder of the option can exercise whether ITM or OTM before market close and/or expiry. Thus, if someone wanted a large volume of shares they would drive the price up but they could exercise a large volume on a daily basis and it would fly under the radar while keeping the price fixed. They have been doing that for past three weeks. OI shows you this but it is hard to read unless you have a sophisticated system that allows you to see the money flow. In addition, they spread the ITM option buying with volume that does not draw attention but in totality adds up by using many strikes.

As for last three weeks there may have been options exercised but MM could not deliver the shares and so decided drop the price (bear raids) to cover by hunting not only the stops but also trailing stops for all last three weeks. FUD was created for no reason but simply by paid FUDsters and complicit MM and hedge funds.

Since this stock is headed for better than Rule of 40 as QNX is hopping and SC is also doing well. Everyone wants shares but there is a liquidity problem as buybacks decreased the float by 18M shares. This was a measured multiple institutional raid!!! The algos were working overtime skimming shares. I have never seen RBC algo but it is now in this past week. No wonder that a majority of analysts kept the price target low...when Alloy Core contract comes through they will upgrade so they are now loading and creating havoc for newbies but many of us are battle hardened by these shenanigans.

Knowing that Alloy Kore deal is imminent as per John Wall on June 2 Baird conference, what would you do if you were wanting shares cheaply or you are short?
Create FUD with all kinds of alternative narratives that you can latch on to. However, retail have been battle hardened with this tactic and are not willing to part with their shares. Therefore, ignore the noise...can you believe that how hard they have pushed on the insider seller plan which is the norm and has nothing to do with the outlook of the company which is better than ever on fundamentals of the company and the much improved solid balance sheet.

Knowing that Alloy Kore deal is imminent as per John Wall on June 2 Baird conference, what would you do if you were wanting shares cheaply or you are short?
Create FUD with all kinds of alternative narratives that you can latch on to. However, retail have been battle hardened with this tactic and are not willing to part with their shares. Therefore, ignore the noise...can you believe that how hard they have pushed on the insider seller plan which is the norm and has nothing to do with the outlook of the company which is better than ever on fundamentals of the company and the much improved solid balance sheet.

June 30 SI :
NYSE = 44,532,114 increases by 5,386,037 7.62%
TSX = 10,514,491 decreases by 308,892 1.79%
Stock traded between $8.21 to 12.93 during that time.

Total SI is therefore ~55M and this does not include naked shorts and synthetic shorts.

During the past thirteen days the stock has traded between $10.33 to $13.59.....so do you think that in spite the many bear raids to take out the stops and trailing stops that the bears have added more shorts or covered?

The number 10% is considered short squeeze territory FYI.

Hold on to you shares do not put stops and put a daily price to sell so the brokerages cannot borrow your shares and this constraints the float which has been reduced by ~18M by the share buy back.

The run from $3.12 to a high of $13.59 was robust but along the way in the first year of buy backs BB bought back 18M shares. Alloy Kore was announce at CES. Physical AI is now a reality. Secucomm unit is a "Rule of 40" company while QNX is now a "Rule of 50" company.

The many analysts who have been complicit with MM and hedge funds shorting incessantly and refusing to acknowledge the guidance and turn around that was happening in the past 18 months get a reality check and grudgingly have to double their price targets albeit short of where we are today. Their credibility is totally decimated. Institutions lost out listening to the analysts in the 3X run while retail was knowledgeable and continues to hold steadfast.

Blackberry is getting the slow but definitive recognition of what it is doing on the world stage...Malaysian centre is drawing ASEAN countries and investors, UAE similarly and now Saudi Arabia.

European automakers such as Mercedes, BMW and possibly VW will embrace Alloy Kore before year end and leading the platform adoption to counter the Chinese EV race with QNX. The exponential revenue will come with Alloy Kore but do not forget that BMW has 4 superbrains ( with many QNX SDP 8 at various levels and plus the Neue Klasse is received very well.

On the cc JG to Kingsley Crane from Canaccord Ingenuity who has rated BB after cc at $10.30 and hold. Canaccord has been the biggest shorter in Canada after RBC's Paul Treiber.

John Giamatteo: BlackBerry Q1 FY2027 earnings call:

"Yeah, I probably don’t want to get into the numbers exactly how much it’s going to be long-term, Kingsley. I will say it’s significant. We think the upside, the increase in TAM, repositioning ourselves from an operating system provider to a more deeper platform provider, increases the addressable market for us and the dollars, the revenue, the ASP that we could generate per car by multiples, significantly. It’s not a 10 or a 20% income increase. It’s like a hundreds of percent’s increase. There’s a tremendous amount of upside associated with that. It’s early days. We are very confident we’re going to get some wins this year. We’ll announce them when they come.”

Alloy Kore is expected at $125 to $150/car which usually for a six year contract. Initially, on design win 20% is paid up front and then service another 20% and remaining 60% on production of vehicle about 85-90M vehicles/ year produced...Mercedes Benz produces ~2M/vehicles/ year; BMW ~2M/vehicles; VW ~8M/vehicles.

Obviously BB shares are in demand and the various brokerages are trying to gain a hold in the next leg up of BB which is laid out clearly and so far John Giamatteo and Tim Foote have been honest, transparent and deliberate in their execution for the past two years! The brokerages want cheap shares which they can only get from retail and so the many attempts to the malicious daily retail shake out: taking out stops and trailing stops from retail.

On the cc JG to Kingsley Crane from Canaccord Ingenuity who has rated BB after cc at $10.30 and hold. Canaccord has been the biggest shorter in Canada after RBC's Paul Treiber.

John Giamatteo: BlackBerry Q1 FY2027 earnings call:

"Yeah, I probably don’t want to get into the numbers exactly how much it’s going to be long-term, Kingsley. I will say it’s significant. We think the upside, the increase in TAM, repositioning ourselves from an operating system provider to a more deeper platform provider, increases the addressable market for us and the dollars, the revenue, the ASP that we could generate per car by multiples, significantly. It’s not a 10 or a 20% income increase. It’s like a hundreds of percent’s increase. There’s a tremendous amount of upside associated with that. It’s early days. We are very confident we’re going to get some wins this year. We’ll announce them when they come.”

Obviously BB shares are in demand and the various brokerages are trying to gain a hold in the next leg up of BB which is laid out clearly and so far John Giamatteo and Tim Foote have been honest, transparent and deliberate in their execution for the past two years! The brokerages want cheap shares which they can only get from retail and so the many attempts to the malicious daily retail shake out: taking out stops and trailing stops from retail.

The run from $3.12 to a high of $13.59 was robust but along the way in the first year of buy backs BB bought back 18M shares. Alloy Kore was announce at CES. Physical AI is now a reality. Secucomm unit is a "Rule of 40" company while QNX is now a "Rule of 50" company.

The many analysts who have been complicit with MM and hedge funds shorting incessantly and refusing to acknowledge the guidance and turn around that was happening in the past 18 months get a reality check and grudgingly have to double their price targets albeit short of where we are today. Their credibility is totally decimated. Institutions lost out listening to the analysts in the 3X run while retail was knowledgeable and continues to hold steadfast.

Blackberry is getting the slow but definitive recognition of what it is doing on the world stage...Malaysian centre is drawing ASEAN countries and investors, UAE similarly and now Saudi Arabia.

European automakers such as Mercedes, BMW and possibly VW will embrace Alloy Kore before year end and leading the platform adoption to counter the Chinese EV race with QNX. The exponential revenue will come with Alloy Kore but do not forget that BMW has 4 superbrains ( with many QNX SDP 8 at various levels and plus the Neue Klasse is received very well.

June 30 SI :
NYSE = 44,532,114 increases by 5,386,037 7.62%
TSX = 10,514,491 decreases by 308,892 1.79%
Stock traded between $8.21 to 12.93 during that time.

Total SI is therefore ~55M and this does not include naked shorts and synthetic shorts.

During the past ten days the stock has traded between $10.66 to 13.59.....so do you think that in spite the many bear raids to take out the stops and trailing stops that the bears have added more shorts or covered?

The number 10% is considered short squeeze territory FYI.

Hold on to you shares do not put stops and put a daily price to sell so the brokerages cannot borrow your shares and this constraints the float which has been reduced by ~18M by the share buy back.

News pending Alloy Kore design win would be a game changer.

The bears hunting for stops today started at $12.50 but not enough shares so they pushed it down to $12 still not enough shares so $11.50 still not enough shares...the VWAP was at $11.84 which tells you the truth!
Now we have the short sale rule on NYSE and the share buy back in effect but algos are also hunting for shares while working against each other such that even RBC was on it. And now interested retail that wants in as well as institutions as the dark pool is highest in the past two days.
Not sure if the naked shorts needed to borrow from the lending pool on the close as they were not able to cover their shorts!
So will the bear raid turn into a bear trap next week while the Alloy Kore contract signing hangs in the next 30 days! It is a no brainer that revenue from Alloy Kore will result in multiple expansion!

Today is exactly one month since Baird conference where John Wall said that Alloy Kore contract is being negotiated and it could be 2 weeks or 2 months before it is signed. We are half way there and this contract will be monumental as a European automaker be it Mercedes Benz, BMW or VW the revenue increase will be many fold as Tim Foote has signalled. MB produces ~2M vehicles/yr; BMW ~2M vehicles/yr and VW ~8M vehicles/year and at $120 to $150/ vehicle with 20% upfront on design win, 20% for services and 60% in royalties is a reality. Analysts will have to adjust their multiples many fold but more importantly QNX vehicle platform becomes basis for SDV's.

This is a given deal as it saves automobile development $200M/ year in middleware and can spend their engineering resources in enhancing their product.