u/ObsessiveImpulse

Best Picture:

Behemoth!
Being Heumann
The Black Ball
Digger
Dune: Part Three
Fjord
No One Cares
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
Wild Horse Nine - Winner

At the moment, the winner feels like a toss up between Wild Horse Nine, Digger, and The Odyssey. I’m going with Wild Horse Nine as the winner because it’s the only one of the three whose director hasn’t directed a previous Best Picture winner, and the last time a Best Picture winner came from the same director as a previous one was Million Dollar Baby over 20 years ago (which obviously doesn’t mean it can never happen again, but it is a trend worth considering). Most people have Project Hail Mary and The Black Ball at this point as well. The other five, I’m not super confident in, but I have less confidence in just about everything else. The test screenings reports for Behemoth! make it sound really great, Dune is probably locked for enough techs/crafts to keep it relatively safe in Picture, and I’m sort of obligated to believe in No One Cares given how big of an A Real Pain fan I am. Fjord and Being Heumann are the two that are likely on the chopping block for me if something else comes up, but Fjord winning the Palme and Being Heumann presumably being Apple’s main priority makes me think they’re both firmly in the running. The only other movie I have much faith in that I don’t currently have in Picture (or any other categories, for that matter) is Cry to Heaven, and that’s solely because I think there’s a strong chance it won’t come out this year. If we get firm confirmation that it will, then I’ll add it to Picture and a bunch of other categories.

Best Director:

Javier Ambrossi & Javier Calvo (The Black Ball)
Tony Gilroy (Behemoth!)
Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Digger)
Martin McDonagh (Wild Horse Nine) - Winner
Christopher Nolan (The Odyssey)

Similar to my earlier assessment of WH9, Digger, and The Odyssey being top three for Picture, I think McDonagh, Iñárritu, and Nolan are probably top three for director, with McDonagh being the most likely winner because he’s the only one of the three who hasn’t won yet. If The Black Ball is as big of a contender as is currently expected, then the Javiers most likely get into Director, and I think Behemoth! sounds like a bold enough directorial vision to get Tony Gilroy in. I don’t feel great about having an all-male lineup though, so hopefully a strong female Best Director nominee emerges by the end of the year (despite having Being Heumann in Picture, I doubt Sian Heder gets a Best Director nom for it if she couldn’t get one for CODA).

Best Actress:

Sandra Hüller (Rose) - Winner
Ruth Madeley (Being Heumann)
Margo Martindale (The Long Haul)
Julianne Moore (No One Cares)
Renate Reinsve (Fjord)

I have Hüller winning because, with there not being an obvious frontrunner at the moment, they might as well give it to the actress who’s in four movies that all have Oscar buzz this year (I have her get nominated for Rose instead of Fatherland because that’s the far buzzier role, and I doubt she gets in for Fatherland unless it’s in Picture, which seems unlikely). Madeley, Moore, and Reinsve all most likely get in if their movies are in Picture, and I think any of them could maybe get in without Picture as well (most notably Reinsve, who I could see being the only nomination Fjord gets if it ends up flopping). And then Martindale is a wildcard pick I made forever ago that nobody else is predicting (literally - not a single other person has had her in their top ten on Awards Expert at any point). I’m going to cling to her for as long as possible, which might not be much longer, as The Long Haul premieres at Tribeca in less than two weeks. If it ends up being nothing, then I’ll swap her out for Cynthia Erivo in Prima Facie. Also, I don’t think Michelle Williams for A Place in Hell is a real thing.

Best Actor:

Tom Cruise (Digger) - Winner
Matt Damon (The Odyssey)
Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary)
John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine)
Pedro Pascal (Behemoth!)

I don’t need to explain why I have Cruise winning. Malkovich is likely in unless they campaign him in Supporting and Sam Rockwell in lead (which I actually think could happen, but I’m not going to bet on). I generally believe in The Odyssey getting acting nods more than most people in this sub seem to. If the movie’s big at the Oscars, I see little reason Matt Damon wouldn’t get a Best Actor nomination. Pedro Pascal would almost certainly come along if Behemoth! is in Picture. As for Gosling, I honestly doubted him for a while, but I finally caved and swapped him in for Sebastian Stan, who supposedly isn’t that showy in Fjord anyway.

Best Supporting Actress:

Penélope Cruz (The Black Ball)
Elizabeth Debicki (The Adventures of Cliff Booth)
Mariana Di Girolamo (Wild Horse Nine)
Anne Hathaway (The Odyssey) - Winner
Inde Navarrette (Obsession)

Hathaway is essentially a placeholder winner. I don’t actually think she’s that likely to win, but nobody else here feels like a winner either, so she’s number one because I think she’s the most likely to be nominated in the first place. Di Girolamo’s reportedly a standout in WH9, so she’s likely a safe bet. I put Navarrette in because, after doubting Amy Madigan last year and Demi Moore the year before and ending up with egg on my face both times, I’m not gonna doubt another horror performance with this much buzz, especially when the Supporting Actress field is this weak (Side note: regardless of what you think the correct placement is, there’s no way Navarrette gets campaigned in lead). I struggled with the last two, and ended up putting in Cruz because she could ride the overall strength of The Black Ball, and Debicki, despite me not believing in Cliff Booth much overall, because if Angela Bassett could get in for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, I don’t see why Debicki couldn’t.

Best Supporting Actor:

Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine)
Paul Giamatti (No One Cares)
John Goodman (Digger) - Winner
Tom Holland (The Odyssey)
Sam Rockwell (Wild Horse Nine)

Medium temperature take: as long as Digger’s actually as big of an awards player as we think it is, then I think Goodman will just walk away with Best Supporting Actor. Rockwell’s definitely in, again, unless the WH9 boys are campaigned the other way around, and Giamatti also seems like a safe bet if No One Cares is a contender, as it sounds he has a baity, Terrence Fletcher-esque role in it. I think people are severely underestimating Holland, as, by all accounts, he has a massive role in The Odyssey and will likely be a major push. For the last spot, I keep going back and forth between Buscemi and Mark Ruffalo for Being Heumann. Buscemi’s overdue and in what I see as the Best Picture frontrunner, but he also supposedly isn’t in WH9 very much, while Ruffalo’s an Oscars darling who seems to have a baity villain role in Being Heumann. I’m going with Buscemi for now, since WH9 seems to be the stronger movie and I could totally see him getting an Isabella Rossellini-type nomination.

Best Original Screenplay:

Behemoth!
Digger
Fjord
No One Cares
Wild Horse Nine - Winner

This is just the five movies I have in Picture that are eligible for the category, with WH9 winning because I think it’s winning Picture. None of the other Original Screenplay contenders feel very strong to me.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Being Heumann
The Black Ball - Winner
The Invite
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary

Similarly, this is four out of five movies I have in Picture that are eligible for the category, plus The Invite, which feels like a lone Screenplay nominee to me. I don’t have Dune in the category because the second movie also missed Screenplay, but I actually could see a reality where it sneaks in since Part Three is supposedly more dialogue heavy than the first two. The Black Ball is at number one pretty much purely for vibes reasons.

Best Casting:

Being Heumann
The Black Ball - Winner
Digger
The Odyssey
Wild Horse Nine

The Black Ball is the strongest contender that has a lot of younger, lesser known actors in it, which, based on the one slate of nominees we have for the category, seems to be the type of thing the casting branch likes. Unfortunately, most of the other movies I have in Picture don’t have super novel casting, with the exception of Being Heumann, which I think could make Casting even if it’s not in Picture because of Ruth Madeley. The other three are kinda just the Best Picture contenders with the largest ensembles.

Best International Feature:

All of a Sudden
The Black Ball - Winner
Coward
Fatherland
Minotaur

The Black Ball is the obvious winner here. The rest are the buzziest eligible titles to come out of Cannes, which probably isn’t that likely (I’m not sure if there’s ever been a year where all of the International nominees premiered at Cannes, but it definitely hasn’t happened in any recent years). I’ll definitely change one or two of these spots once more contenders emerge.

Best Documentary Feature:

American Doctor
Nuisance Bear
Once Upon a Time in Harlem - Winner
One in a Million
To Hold a Mountain

This category’s hard to predict since documentaries rarely have much buzz before they come out. I kinda just looked through the highest ranked documentaries on Awards Expert and picked the ones that had the most awards-y sounding premises. Another one that will definitely change as more contenders emerge.

Best Animated Feature:

Forgotten Island
Hoppers
Tangles
Toy Story 5
Wildwood - Winner

Wildwood feels like a very safe bet for the winner. Hoppers is also very likely because Pixar movies usually get in, and Hoppers is their best received movie in a while. Toy Story 5 is less likely, since Pixar sequels aren’t as consistently successful, but it still probably gets nominated because it’s Toy Story. Tangles got great reception out of Cannes, and Forgotten Island is definitely in the conversation if it’s good, though I might swap it out for the new Shaun the Sheep movie since the first two both got in.

Best Cinematography:

Digger
Dune: Part Three
Fatherland
The Odyssey - Winner
Project Hail Mary

This is just the current top five on Awards Expert. Don’t really have anything to add here.

Best Film Editing:

Digger
Dune: Part Three
The Odyssey
No One Cares
Wild Horse Nine - Winner

The Editing nominees are usually also Picture nominees, so I went with the ones that seem ’d have the most noteworthy editing. One that note, people are sleeping on No One Cares in this category. I’ve heard people who saw test screenings compare it to the likes of Whiplash and Uncut Gems, so I imagine it has a very frantic, kinetic editing style similar to those movies.

Best Production Design:

The Black Ball
Digger
Dune: Part Three
The Odyssey - Winner
Project Hail Mary

Quite a few people who have seen The Black Ball say it’s a Production Design contender, so I’ll take their word for it. The other four all probably or definitely have big, impressive set pieces.

Best Costume Design:

The Black Ball
Dune: Part Three
The Odyssey - Winner
Sense and Sensibility
Werwulf

These are all period pieces and/or fantasy movies, the two genres that about 95% of Costume Design nominees fall into.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

Clayface
Digger
The Odyssey
Werwulf - Winner
Wicker

Digger and The Odyssey are the two biggest contenders that we know have prominent makeup effects. Beyond that, the makeup branch likes to take bolder swings (three out of five of this year’s Makeup nominees were their movie’s sole nominations). Wicker seems like the type of otherwise non-contender they’d go for, and they like body horror, so they’ll presumably like Clayface. Werwulf being nominated is likely since they nominated Nosferatu, and it winning is basically just a hunch, but one I feel pretty good about.

Best Visual Effects:

Dune: Part Three
Godzilla Minus Zero
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary - Winner
Wildwood

Dune, The Odyssey, and PHM are all pretty obvious picks, and Godzilla can likely ride the coattails of its predecessor. Wildwood is the bold pick here, but since the Academy’s nominated stop-motion films for Visual Effects before (namely The Nightmare Before Christmas and Kubo and the Two Strings), I could absolutely see this happening if it’s really the Animated Feature winner.

Best Sound:

The Black Ball
Disclosure Day
Dune: Part Three
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary - Winner

They tend to go for the big, loud blockbusters in this category. The Black Ball isn't necessarily a loud blockbuster, but it does have original music and large portions of it take place during a war.

Best Original Score:

Behemoth! - Winner
Disclosure Day
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
Wild Horse Nine

The Odyssey and PHM are extremely obvious picks, as is Disclosure Day by virtue of being by John Williams. Since Carter Burwell got nominated for his last two McDonagh scores, I don’t imagine WH9 will be different. I have Behemoth! winning because the test screening reactions have been saying that the score is a huge part of the movie’s identity.

Best Original Song:

An original song from The Black Ball
“Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2
Diane Warren’s song for Maserati: The Brothers
An original song from The Rivals of Amziah King
Taylor Swift’s song for Toy Story 5 - Winner

Another category that’s difficult to predict sight unseen. Even the Diane Warren song isn’t a gimme because she’s making songs for at least two movies this year (though I think Maserati: The Brothers is way more likely to get recognized than Crystal Planet). All of the Toy Story movies up until now have received a Best Original Song nomination, and, if the rumors that there’s a song for this one by Taylor Swift are true, that sounds like a fairly strong choice for the win. “Runway” is the biggest contender we’ve actually heard, and seems like a safe bet. The Black Ball, while not being a musical contrary to popular belief, does have at least one original song in it, so I imagine that would be a contender since The Black Ball is expected to be huge. And then The Rivals of Amziah King is one of the few other contenders we know has original songs in it. Do I actually think it’s that likely to get an Original Song nom? Not really, unless it ends up being a big contender elsewhere. But I’m gonna put it in as a placeholder

Every Best Actress contender of the 2020s (so far) with multiple precursor nominations who was snubbed at the Oscars

Every Best Actor contender of the 2020s (so far) with multiple precursor nominations who was snubbed at the Oscars

My post-Cannes predictions for the 99th Academy Awards

Made a tier list of every song Todd's ever put on a best list