u/Odd_Association_275

During the heatwave this week, ~68,000 homes in Brittany lost power. Not just AC demand, an actual transformer failure from heat stress. Italy had blackouts from thermal stress on grid cables too. France even lost ~4GW of nuclear output because the cooling water got too warm. The whole system is straining, not just one piece. France’s hottest day ever.

That failure mode (old transformers that can’t handle modern loads) is exactly what solid-state transformers replace. NVTS makes the GeneSiC SiC that goes into SSTs and showed 50kVA cells at PCIM this month with EPFL and TI. Management put grid/energy at $1 to 1.8B serviceable by 2030, about half their TAM. Chris saying the grid leg is the part people underestimate.

India, the US, now Europe. Grid stress is going global, and that’s what pulls real money into modernization.

Honest part: this is slow. Grid upgrades run on utility timelines, so it’s a multi year thesis, not a Q3 catalyst. NVTS also competes with bigger SiC players (onsemi, ST, Infineon) and trades rich right now. August earnings is the next checkpoint. But long term, NVTS sits at grid to rack with both SiC and GaN and the tailwind keeps getting louder. Feliz Navitas🎄

CEO Chris Allexandre @ Evercore Global TMT Conference (Today)

• “When power goes up by 2x, content goes up by 5x”
• Complete pivot away from mobile — less than 20% last quarter, under 10% by year-end, zero resources on it now
• GlobalFoundries GaN partnership — selling to customers end of 2026, production 2027, US fab in Vermont
• SiC ramping with US foundry partner in Texas — already seeing strong growth from grid applications
• Navitas will co-invest in foundry capacity to support the ramp
• 800V-to-6V board: GaN primary, silicon secondary — future moves to GaN on both sides
• 800V-to-50V board: GaN on both sides, 1MHz switching, 98.5% efficiency
• Biggest disconnect with investors: people underestimate the grid opportunity — “by 2030 we’ve only changed a small portion of the grid, there’s a tipping point where you replace transformers for the ENTIRE grid, not just AI”
• “The SAM is enormous for ultra-high-voltage SiC in the grid”
• 200-300 GW being deployed, do the math

Content per megawatt:
• GaN (DC-DC inside rack): $10,000-$15,000/MW — grows as GaN replaces silicon closer to GPU
• SiC (AC-DC PSUs): $8,000-$12,000/MW — PSUs scaling from 10kW to 50kW
• SiC (SST/grid): up to $20,000/MW — 2000V-3300V+
• Total: ~$38,000-$47,000 per megawatt across the full stack

Grid/infrastructure is the steak dinner and data centers is the cheesecake dessert 💎