Too late to get in SLS? Open-source REGAL + valuation model (stress-test HR, events, and $/sh yourself)
With the recent bullish move in SLS, I'm seeing "Is it too late to get in?"
Rather than argue a static price target, I consolidated the primary-source data and community DD math into one interactive, open-source model so you can run your own scenarios.
Live model: https://sls-model.vercel.app/
GitHub (AGPL-3.0): https://github.com/sterno874/SLS-Model
What it actually models
This isn't a generic DCF with growth-rate sliders. It's built around what we know vs what we're assuming:
Tab 1 — REGAL (GPS + ven/aza)
- Locked event anchors: 60 @ ~m46, 72 @ ~m58, 78 @ ~May 2026 (company PRs)
- Mixture-cure survival curves, hazard ratio, readout HR gauge
- Forward projection and anchor-constrained inverse solve
- Monte Carlo P(win) at HR < 0.636
- Presets: Best Available Guess (biology-first), neutral identifiability ridge, Critique/bear stress tests
- CR2→randomization lead-time sensitivity (display-only IRM context)
Tab 2 — SLS-009 (tambiciclib / GenFleet PTCL context)
- Phase 3 power / r/r OS fold scenarios with sourced comparables
Tab 3 — Valuation
- Epidemiology funnel → peak patients → risk-adjusted EV and equity $/sh
- Separate P(GPS) approval prior (default ~65%) — not the same thing as Tab 1 clinical P(win)
- Dilution presets: 181M basic / 222M FD / 240M ATM stress
- Buyout comparables + reality checks (Venclexta, Gilead–Forty Seven, etc.)
Tabs 4–5 — Explain + Biology
- ELI5 → PhD breakdowns with linked sources
- WT1/GPS, CDK9/SLS-009 mechanism context
Every material claim is tagged and linked (SEC, IR, ClinicalTrials.gov, peer review). Community DD is integrated, including rejected claims (Bayes 62× strawman, "99.9% as trial outcome," fake-unblinding narratives).
How to use it for "too late?"
- Pick your clinical scenario on Tab 1 (or use Best Available Guess as a bull anchor-fit case).
- Set your own P(GPS) and dilution on Tab 3.
- Compare implied equity $/sh to where you'd buy today.
If the model's implied $/sh is already below your entry, it may be "too late" for your risk/reward — if not, maybe not. The point is to make that math explicit instead of vibes.
Seeking peer review
This is community tooling, not a sell-side note. I want holes poked in it:
- Does Best Available Guess still fit 60/72/78 under reasonable BAT biology caps?
- Are baseline cash/shares/TAM assumptions wrong or stale?
- What bear cases or data points are missing?
- Any calculation errors in survival, HR, or valuation logic?
Comment here or open a PR/issue on GitHub. Tear it apart, that's the point.