u/On_the_hunt1

Show me one (1) vote as proof of Lawler’s independence from the President. Please, raising a little Trumps cap on tax deduction is meaningless. It’ still Trump’s cap, a double taxation. 

Nothing Lawler has put his name on has become law this Congress. Anyone can fact check on congress(dot)gov.   and he calls himself “most effective.” 

Lawler has been serving this District five years and he has nothing to show,  except Trumps SALT cap?  Now that is an amazing achievement.   Other Republicans got concessions for their constituents like tariffs exemption, but Lawler got nothing.   Zero.   That Community Project Funding was the work of House Appropriations Committee.   Now we are learning that it faces federal budget cuts.

Lawler found two Dems getting back at their party for being snubbed.   Anyone asks Lawler at town halls about Trump and Mike’s signature dismissal is  “Orange Man Bad, next question.”    So now,  Putin is invited to Trump’s Doral-Miami, Hegseth has announced a live-streamed execution (12/3).  Shooting Alex Pretti in the back on camera, wasn’t enough.  Mortages, bankruptcies all up. Clinics, senior care face service cuts, increase costs. Two hospitals!  in Rockland are on the cliff. 

https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/s/X5CiRd27Lz

Folks, read ‘em right here on Reddit, what's going on behind the scenes. YES THIS IS ABOUT TARIFFS and corruption and the rest of it. If you are not crying or praying that Mike Lawler-Johnson Congress gets voted out, you are not paying attention. Even J.D.Vance said this week "give us another chance."

Conley is a marine combat veteran with  an amazing records. Three Bronze Stars. Six combat tours in counterterrorism missions in Bagdad, Iraq, Afghanistan, just the worst of worst. She’s got integrity in spades.

She’s also smart. Served at the highest levels of national security.  Director for Counterterrorism at the White House. The real deal. 

She will lower costs for Hudson Valley families. She’s a fighter and will go after corruption and dysfunction head-on but   I suspect her focus will be ordinary voters. Healthcare, small business, and utilities.  Local, local. Strengthening public service in uniform, in towns, in communities. 

Hi all. For the last 6 months or so, I've been keeping tabs on the NY-17 democratic primary race. That means watching, reading and analyzing as many forums, interviews, social media posts and articles as I could to make an informed decision. With four weeks until the election, I put together a one-page scorecard with one goal: Answer who is better positioned to beat Mike Lawler in November? Note that the goal specifically was NOT to figure out who is better positioned to win the primary.

I'll say upfront that Effie Phillips-Staley and Mike Sacks both deserve credit for running the most ideologically consistent campaigns in the field and for putting the district's shifting views on Palestine, immigration, and the Supreme Court on the table. I truly believe they have the right long-term strategy for the district, but 2026 just isn't their time given how swingy it is. Based on polling, betting markets, and fundraising, there are only two viable candidates.

Both Cait Conley and Beth Davidson are genuinely strong and we would be lucky to have either one of them as our representative. Davidson has 20 years of community roots in Rockland, a proven track record of winning tough races, and the deepest knowledge of local issues of anyone in this field. She also was just endorsed by Peter Chatzky and John Sullivan today.

But the question I was trying to answer is specifically about November. The only independent head-to-head poll is old, but shows Conley winning. The wave environment (generic ballot D+6.9 as of today) rewards her as the higher-ceiling candidate. Her military/national security background gives voters permission to vote for the "outsider" candidate that runs against the system (this was my biggest data point for her vs Davidson - outsider fighter vs political insider government wonk). It's also the proven template that won Sherrill and Spanberger their governor races in 2025. Do I have some reservations? Of course! She is more moderate than I would like. It's also definitely a bad look to have any kind of tie to Palantir even if there's no evidence any of her AI company contracts have anything to do with ICE/immigration.

My conclusion is Conley. The scorecard explains why. Early voting starts June 13. From Alex Levy on FB.

https://preview.redd.it/yt5kmlug4v3h1.jpg?width=1598&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f92b8ab198fcc9ebc874ada02d3eb10f075e3e38