u/Onomatopoeia-sizzle

Advanced Auto said this today causing the stock to fall. Isn’t Autozone’s DIY business much larger as a percent of sales?

“However, total enterprise sales performance was impacted by the DIY channel as tighter household budgets constrained spending more than we anticipated, especially during the last four weeks of the quarter."

It feels like MAGA means more than one thing depending on who you ask. Does it mean bring manufacturing jobs that have been gone for decades back to the US? Does it means hey let’s kick anyone here illegally out of the country? Or does it mean you are poor, angry and ready to take up arms against anyone anywhere? Does it mean slash domestic funding and consumer protections?

Manufacturing jobs really can’t come back. China sells new cars for $15k built by robots.

Kicking out the illegals is hard given how long people have been here, often more than a generation.

And if you’re poor and angry, a gun won’t help pay higher gas, higher food and higher prices for alcohol. If Taco Bell costs more who gets blamed?

And then behind the scenes we have a South African, Musk, controlling elections with cash donations. He needs to be kicked out.

I just paid $120 for dinner for 3 at a Thai place. Six years ago it was $50. And the restaurants are going under because private equity is soaking up real estate and raising rents everywhere.

I know someone with a herniated disc and the insurance just said a shot is not covered. Insurance companies are not covering anything. The worst is watching corporations improve earnings watching them cut costs. Long live Luigi

Wingstop management explains why sales are slow, "We find our business more exposed than other restaurant concepts to consumers who have been disproportionately impacted by persistent inflation and ongoing economic uncertainty... more than 55% of our domestic restaurants are located in urban trade areas where households are under more financial stress…” — earnings conference call transcript

I’ve read a lot about shortages of mechanics and the cost of repairs going up. Is there a shift at AutoZone away from DIFM and toward DIY as more consumers are trying to save some money by doing the work themselves?

I have a question for some auto mechanics. When someone comes to your location needing a repair that requires parts. You usually know whether or not you have the parts on hand. But do you also know whether or not you can get the same parts you need from O’Reilly or AutoZone or whoever when you don’t have it on hand? Are they reliable about delivering the same day? Or do they make you wait another day in which case you could order on Amazon or whoever? Are the parts stores more or less necessary than in years past?

“What stands out the most is that this seems tied pretty closely to long loan terms. Our research shows that 90.2% of new loans involving trade-ins with negative equity carry terms of 72 months or longer, and 43% extended to 84 months. That’s a long time to be paying off a depreciating asset.”

I didn’t post the link from an advertisement but the report shows in great detail how upside down consumers are on their car loans.

The number of people owing over $10k is also growing. Many people don’t realize how underwater they are until they try to trade an existing car, particularly if bought during the pandemic. There’s a shortage of used cars because no one can roll their loans loan.

The average age of a car is increasing toward 13 years. If people are rolling their loans to 84 months. The car will die before the loan is paid off. Any car over 10 years shouldn’t have more than a 5 year loan. If you can’t make the payment don’t drive because insurance and repairs will hurt too over time.

Last year, one of AZO's largest suppliers, First Brands went bankrupt, disclosing several billion dollars of missing money. They supplied windshield wiper blades and many other products. Can it be assumed they replaced their supplier? Unsure.

Today's news:

Former First Brands executives Patrick and Edward James have been released from home confinement as they await trial on federal bank and wire fraud charges tied to the company's collapse.

Federal judges approved changes to their pretrial release conditions after both men complied with months of home detention. The brothers will now remain under curfew, location monitoring and travel restrictions while preparing for trial, which is scheduled to begin in February 2027.

My wife and I rented a car for vacation. We reserved a VW Jetta from Enterprise. When we got there they had not one VW and tried to talk me into an equivalent car which they pushed a Jeep Compass. They admitted a Compass is a pos and cost us more money. All the other cars were low quality Kia’s etc…cars most consumers don’t want built during the pandemic.

So I went to the Enterprise sub Reddit. They all said the same thing…enterprise gives you an equivalent car. I told them if management teaches that then they are brainwashed. Who gets to decide what an equivalent car is?

An hour later they brought a Corolla which we took. The front end shakes at 80.

Carmax is reporting earnings on Tuesday. Hopefully, they’ll have something to say. I heard they are having a hard time sourcing quality cars.

I booked a week vacation and rented a Volkswagen Jetta. We got there and no Jetta. No VWs at all. They tried hard to get us to take a POS Chrysler Pacifica for a higher price. I refuse to drive a Stellantis vehicle. Now we know where shitty cars go to die—the rental cars. We waited an hour while they pulled a Toyota from another location. Scam artists.

For the last maybe 3 years Carmax has suffered really through no fault of its own because of the shortage of used cars—quality used cars that are less than $25k and 2-7 years old. Those cars are missing. They should have been produced in 2021-22 and weren’t. I called a buddy who goes to auctions. He said there are 2024-5 cars selling for $50k (MSRP was $75k). Carmax can’t pay that price and make money. At the other end of the spectrum are 10 year old cars with 170k miles for sale at $20k. There are no cars between 2 and 8 years old. Carmax can buy trade ins, but the quality of cars is falling across the industry. I don’t see how they can make money, not including CAF income and GAP insurance. Is my friend at the auction wrong or is he seeing a trend that is at the auction but hasn’t hit the dealers yet? It looks like Car-Mart is in trouble.

I’m looking at all the comments in the news about Iranian soccer players not being allowed in the US. There’s been all kinds of news about people canceling their hotel. Many people from foreign countries are now afraid to come here or don’t wanna come here anymore because they hate us. Does the right really realize that this is causing irreparable economic damage to us New York alone does $70 billion per year in tourism that’s going away. All the Florida Airbnb‘s owned by Europeans and Canadians. They’re gone. Rreal estate will just be written off and sold it a discount. I just don’t get why they destroy this much economic advantage of doing business. Do they feel more independent as a country without tourists just too freaking stupid to realize what they’re really doing.

My car died last year. I have been waiting to buy a car hoping interest rates would drop. I’ve seen them drop a little. I was prequalified for a $20,000 loan at 11.5%. Last year it was around 13.5%. That doesn’t sound like much. I thought the rates would drop more. Should I wait for rates to go lower or buy now? I want the payment under $400. Is it better to get a loan from a bank or a dealership that connects you to a bank?

Advanced Auto Parts announced earnings today. The CEO expressed his concern over higher fuel prices. I’m not sure if he is talking about customers spending money on gas to come to the store. Or is he talking about the price of gas to deliver parts to gas stations or other DIFM outlets. If gas costs $10 for a delivery instead of $5, the store may not deliver the product under a certain price that covers the gas. Domino’s and DoorDash are experiencing the same issue. Thoughts? Also, out of curiosity, is there a mad rush to buy motor oil?

Everyone complains about the rich get richer. That’s true. The most talented, smartest people on Wall Street are there to make more money. It’s a living if you play your cards right. But over the last several decades the group hasn’t benefited. With pension funds, retirement funds, benefits unions of various kinds. Those are the people who had their money managed by the best and brightest. But those funds have disappeared in terms of representation. The few have the most, and the most have the least. If wealth was more equally distributed more people in the bottom, half of a K would have savings and not debt and would therefore be able to participate in the stock market going higher because as it is now market can go up very high, but it’s not taking all Americans with it and that’s just not acceptable. That system won’t work.

Is there an online retailer that is the best source for various types of products? I’m trying to learn along the way. What is the best medical kit? What’s the best way to clean water?

I think the reason the economy isn’t going down the tubes faster is because of the banks are doing. I’ll use auto as an example but I’m sure it applies to real estate and other things as well. So let’s say you have a $15,000 loan on a car in the car is only worth 5000. If the owner defaults on that car, then the bank has to retrieve the car via a repossession sell the car at auction for $5000 and then collect $10,000 from the consumer for the defaulted loan. But the consumer doesn’t have the $10,000 in fact many consumers are carrying $10,000 of extra debt when they try to come in and trade in their car. So the banks have realized that they would have to realize a loss on their financial statements if the consumer who’s defaulting on the car goes into repossession.

So what does the bank do to avoid showing a loss on the $10,000 to consumer doesn’t have? They make a deal with a consumer to allow them to pay a lesser amount and keep them in the column of current as opposed to delinquent on their financials. So the consumer calls up and says I can’t pay my $400 a month payment the bank may say OK can you pay us 200 a month? And the consumer will go for that not realizing or caring that all that extra money on the back end it’s gonna be added to the loan and there will be more interest later, but let’s forget that part. So now the bank has an extend and pretend loan with a defaulting consumer with a loss that they have not realized. The banks have a relatively small number of defaults because of this, maybe 2%. But the bank is creating another problem for itself if the car was worth $5000 at auction when they were supposed to repossess it, it may only be worth 2500 when they actually do repossess it later so they’re deferring a depreciation hit. This is economic stress on the balance sheet of the banks as they float the consumer. But there’s no regulatory body there’s no FDIC saying hey you’re doing this wrong there’s no SEC saying what are you doing? You can’t do that.